Bijan Robinson had his first career multi-touchdown game, which also resulted in the best fantasy performance of his young career. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) (Todd Kirkland via Getty Images)
For most of the fantasy football season, Bijan Robinson has been a frustrating player. He comes with an insane offense, a mercurial coach and an unpredictable role.
But Robinson’s rampage starting in Week 12 cannot be ignored. He’s starting to look like a league winner.
Robinson was the dominant fantasy player in the early Sunday window, totaling 123 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 24-15 win over New Orleans. Robinson had one touchdown on the ground, one through the air and was successful in a number of Atlanta offensive sets. Sometimes the Falcons were in the middle, sometimes with the shotgun or pistol. The offensive line pushed New Orleans around, and when Robinson has time to step on the gas and pick his lane, exciting things happen.
Watch the Robinson tape and see what you make of it. Robinson was untouched for his first touchdown, a mix of dynamic blocking and Robinson’s world-class burst. The second score was a cleverly timed throw from up-and-down quarterback Desmond Ridder that led to the game-winning points.
Robinson released a lot of solid fantasy games before this week, but we were still waiting for this monster performance. His best half-point PPR result in the first 10 weeks was a pair of RB8 appearances in the first two weeks. With 25.8 points on Sunday, he was the RB3 in Yahoo’s rankings at press time, trailing only Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams this week.
Robinson was a common name mentioned in Sunday’s starting sit-in discussions. This is probably an end now. The Falcons are leaning on him for the stretch run and the remaining schedule looks encouraging. Four of Robinson’s next five opponents – the Jets, Panthers, Colts and Bears – are in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The only tricky spot on the schedule is Week 14’s home game against Tampa Bay – and hell, the Buccaneers didn’t let Jonathan Taylor down on Sunday.
It’s hard to trust other hawks
I wish I could give strong support to the rest of the Atlanta offense. It’s still a hit-and-miss group. Drake London was impressive in one afternoon, going 5-91-0 and conceding seven goals. That’s 33% of the passing pie here, but it’s a small pie – the Falcons only attempted 21 passes. Desmond Ridder has thrown a few bad picks, and you get the impression that Atlanta’s coaches view Ridder as a quarterback who needs to be carefully managed.
And with London and Robinson combining for 13 goals, there wasn’t much room for other Atlanta players. Kyle Pitts caught both of his targets for 22 yards. The Falcons haven’t unlocked him all year. It is no longer wishful thinking in most pools.
Missed opportunities for Saints
The Saints offense had no problems moving the ball (444 yards, 22 first downs), but left a lot of points on the field and failed to get into the end zone. Injuries didn’t help. Chris Olave (7-114-0, nine goals) dominated before a concussion in the third quarter ended his day. Rashid Shaheed (2-9-0, five goals) suffered a hamstring injury in the second quarter and also did not return.
Alvin Kamara is stuck with three touchdowns, but at least the volume got him to a passable fantasy score (15-69 rushing, 4-50 receiving). Derek Carr ended a drive with a pick-6 and Taysom Hill lost a fumble.
The Falcons and Saints are now tied at the top of the NFC South, with both teams at 5-6. Although the Buccaneers still have a chance, just one game back, the Week 18 rematch between New Orleans and Atlanta is likely to be played for the division title, perhaps pushed back to the evening.
Maybe watching Arthur Smith coach during prime time isn’t your idea of a party. But Bijan Robinson is willing to take a sad song and make it better.
Speed lap
• Spreading the games over Thanksgiving week is a double-edged sword. It’s nice to have six standalone games per week; We can keep track of more players, more teams and more situations. It’s perfect for exploring. But with the Lions, Cowboys, Niners and Dolphins all off the menu before the weekend began, early Sunday felt tight, an Italian meat grinder with no meat.
• Rashee Rice has been the efficiency darling in Kansas City for weeks. On Sunday they finally gave him the volume and a predictable line followed – 8-107-1 on 10 targets. Andy Reid didn’t rush Rice, but he can’t pass up that kind of production. Rice is an easy start to the rest of the season.
• We don’t need Aidan O’Connell to be great, we just need him to be good enough to support the three imaginative Raiders, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. AOC wasn’t strong down the stretch against the Chiefs, but had his best start of the year on Sunday. We can trust the Vegas triplets.
• It’s hard to know what to do with players in unclear injury situations. Cooper Kupp started Sunday but was probably nowhere near fully healthy. Kyren Williams returned after being injured for several weeks. Result: Williams ran wild like a Pro Bowler, while Kupp was essentially a decoy. There’s a lot of guesswork involved in the games we play. Royce Freeman eventually got his backfield work in the final stretch, but I expect Williams to have a dominant work share in the close games.
• James Conner is leading the way in Arizona, but with Kyler Murray running aggressively – and even Clayton Tune getting the occasional rushing opportunity – goal-line equity flies out the window. And it’s not like the Cardinals often play with a favorable game script; There’s a reason they’re between 2 and 10. The defense was embarrassed by an ordinary Rams team on Sunday. If you dream of a championship, you need better starting defenders than Conner.
• The Browns and Broncos are essentially the same team – very good defense, credible talent and a quarterback-hiding game. The competition isn’t a seamless overlap — Russell Wilson is better than the remaining Cleveland quarterbacks and the Browns defense is better than Denver’s — but the framework is the same.
Most AFC contenders would love to see either team make the playoffs if it kept the Bills out. Buffalo is now 6-6, despite a -plus101 point difference. I realize it’s misleading to say this, but Buffalo is no more than ten games away from being undefeated. Unfortunately, the Bills are still a long way from reaching the AFC tournament.
• Keenan Allen has the perfect setup – he’s the only downfield option the Chargers trust, but his gain average is so modest that defenses don’t feel obligated to use every resource to stop him. Fantasy managers love the 14-106-0 line Allen posted on Sunday. The Ravens gained 106 yards on 16 targets – a modest 6.63 per attempt – and probably concluded, “That’s not going to beat us.” The Chargers finished with a measly 10 points.
• Derrick Henry needed two touchdown runs to make it the most of 18 carries for 76 yards against Carolina, the worst team in football. The Titans don’t play any other bad team the rest of the year: Colts, Dolphins, Texans, Seahawks, Texans, Jaguars. Henry obviously has little supporting role and can get lost in the script of the game if Tennessee falls behind. He’s not an automatic starter for the fantasy playoffs.
• Pat Freiermuth played three hours with the Bengals, a 9-120-0 beauty who ran a variety of routes. But in Pittsburgh’s passing game, everyone is usually fighting over a touchdown pass from Kenny Pickett, and this Sunday Pickett didn’t throw a single one. Pittsburgh’s current plan will never change – let’s try to prevent Pickett from losing the game, let’s control the clock with two decent defenders and see if TJ Watt and the defense can win the game for us. There’s no shortage of candidates, but maybe the time has finally come for Mike Tomlin to be named Coach of the Year.