The Canadian has been laying the foundation for his rebuild in recent seasons, so much so that the hard core of the team is taking shape with Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Kirby Dach and Kaiden Guhle as leaders, to which are added some promising young ones people in the organization. However, one question remains: Who will be the team’s starting goaltender if it ultimately aims to make the playoffs?
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The simple answer to this question at the moment is that the Canadian does not have anything in his team or in his sector that would lead us to expect stability at the goalkeeper position when the core of the team arrives in their prime. In his best time, in good French.
To support this observation, we calculated the average age of the core of each championship team since 2010, over the last 14 years. On average, this core was between 24 and 30 years old.
- 2010 (Chicago): Patrick Kane (20), Duncan Keith (26), Jonathan Toews (21), Patrick Sharp (27), Seabrook (24). Average: 24 years
- 2011 (Boston): Milan Lucic (22), Patrice Bergeron (25), David Krejci (24), Zdeno Chara (33), Tim Thomas (36). Average: 28 years
- 2012 (Los Angeles): Anze Kopitar (24), Drew Doughty (21), Jonathan Quick (26), Dustin Brown (26), Justin Williams (29). Average: 25 years
- 2013 (Chicago): Patrick Kane (23), Duncan Keith (29), Jonathan Toews (24), Brent Seabrook (27), Patrick Sharp (30). Average: 27 years
- 2014 (Los Angeles): Anze Kopitar (26), Drew Doughty (23), Jonathan Quick (28), Justin Williams (31), Dustin Brown (28). Average: 27 years
- 2015 (Chicago): Jonathan Toews (26), Patrick Kane (25), Marian Hossa (35), Duncan Keith (31), Patrick Sharp (32). Average: 30 years
- 2016 (Pittsburgh): Sidney Crosby (28), Kristopher Letang (28), Evgeni Malkin (29), Phil Kessel (27), Chris Kunitz (35). Average: 29 years
- 2017 (Pittsburgh): Sidney Crosby (29), Kristopher Letang (29), Evgeni Malkin (30), Phil Kessel (28). Average: 29 years
- 2018 (Washington): Alex Ovechkin (31), Evgeny Kuznetsov (25), Nicklas Backstrom (29), John Carlson (27), Braden Holtby (29). Average: 28 years
- 2019 (St Louis): Ryan O’Reilly (27), Vladimir Tarasenko (26), Brayden Schenn (27), Alex Pietrangelo (28). Average: 27 years
- 2020 (Tampa Bay): Nikita Kucherov (26), Steven Stamkos (29), Brayden Point (23), Victor Hedman (28), Andrei Vasilevskiy (26). Average: 26 years
- 2021 (Tampa Bay): Nikita Kucherov (27), Steven Stamkos (30), Brayden Point (24), Victor Hedman (29), Andrei Vasilevskiy (27). Average: 27 years
- 2022 (Colorado): Mikko Rantanen (24), Nathan MacKinnon (26), Cale Makar (22), Gabriel Landeskog (28). Average: 25 years
- 2023 (Vegas): Jack Eichel (25), Jonathan Marchessault (31), Alex Pietrangelo (32), Mark Stone (30). Average: 28 years
For the Canadian, the average age of the four players mentioned above (Suzuki, Caufield, Dach and Guhle) is currently 23 years old.
We can therefore assume that CH has a window of about seven more years to hope to capitalize on the best years of its core to give it a real chance at the cup, that is, until the 2030-2031 season.
Photo courtesy of the Boston College Eagles
Aging goalkeepers
Now back to our original question: who will be the goalie playing behind this core?
Jake Allen celebrated his 33rd anniversary with the big club last August and the decline has begun. In September, Le Journal, with the help of specialist company Sportlogiq, revealed that an improvement in the performance of NHL goalkeepers was observed up to the age of 29. The decline then began until the age of 33, when several masked men were no longer required to retain their services.
We can therefore remove his name from the medium-term solutions section.
That brings us to Samuel Montembeault, whose contract expires at the end of this season. At 27 years old, based on the statistics explained previously, we can assume that the Quebec goalkeeper can give CH a honest service for at least two more seasons. Six or seven more years? It’s not impossible, but it would be a tall order, especially since it’s not yet clear whether he’s a true number one goaltender in the NHL.
Cayden Primeau’s case remains difficult to assess as, at 24 years old, he has still not established himself as an NHL goaltender, not even as a reserve player. We are not saying that he will never do it, but in his case a solution must be found quickly.
The sector and the age of 25 years
The Canadian has six notable goalkeepers in the system. But when will they be ready to contribute, and once their potential is reached, will they have what it takes to help the Canadiens win?
We’ve created an overall profile of the development time the majority of starting goaltenders in the NHL currently require. To this end, we used a sample of 27 active goalkeepers, most of whom are established and starting goalkeepers, some younger and some experienced veterans.
On average, they entered the NHL at the age of 22 – mostly as a backup – and then became regular players at 25.
Let’s quickly move on to Joe Vrbetic, who at 21 is still playing in the ECHL with the Trois-Rivières Lions.
Besides him, perhaps the closest person to a position in the NHL is Jakub Dobes, who already plays in the American Hockey League with the Laval Rocket. However, the 22-year-old Czech is struggling to make the transition to professional hockey after having two standout seasons in the NCAA at Ohio State University. Let’s give him time anyway.
Jakub Dobe’s photo agency QMI, Joël Lemay
Emmett Croteau, a sixth-round pick of the team in 2022, is playing his first season in the NCAA at Clarkson University.
The trio of 2023?
But the most interesting names are still young. In the last draft, CH selected three goaltenders: Jacob Fowler in the third round, Quentin Miller in the fourth round, and then the mysterious Russian Yevgeni Volokhin in the next round. Could the organization’s next number one goalie be in this line?
One thing is certain: the three of them are having a great time. Fowler is the starting goaltender for the Boston College Eagles in the NCAA, where he is off to a remarkable start, while Miller has brilliantly accepted the starting role with the Quebec Remparts. Volokhin is also doing well in the MHL, Russia’s junior league.
Quentin Miller PHOTO DIDIER DEBUS SCISSORS
These three young people are 18 years old. We remind you that on average goalkeepers become regular players at the age of 25. If they follow this trend, we are talking about a starting position in seven years, i.e. in the year 2030-2031. This brings us to the end of the time window for the core of the team.
Transaction or free agents?
Is it important to have a top goalie to win the Stanley Cup? No, but it helps.
Since 2006, nine Stanley Cup championship teams have had a star goaltender between the goals: Anaheim (Jean-Sébastien Giguère), Detroit (Chris Osgood), Pittsburgh (Marc-André Fleury), Boston (Tim Thomas), Los Angeles (two once with Jonathan Quick), Washington (Braden Holtby) and Tampa Bay (twice with Andrei Vasilevskiy). If you’re good at math, you’ll have understood that half of the championship teams didn’t have a star in the net for 18 years.
Tim Thomas is one of the best goaltenders to lead their team to the Stanley Cup since 2006. Eric Bolte/QMI Agency
You could say the Canadian has accumulated ammunition over the last few years and will be able to afford to negotiate for a goalie when the time comes. While this is true, it may not be that easy in reality. Top goalkeepers are very rarely made available and those who change address usually do so when they become free agents.
Recent years have included Darcy Kuemper (5 years, $5.25 million), Jack Campbell (5 years, $5 million), Frederik Andersen (2 years, $4.5 million), Philipp Grubauer (6 years , $5.9 million), Linus Ullmark (4 years, $5 million), Jakob Markstrom (6 years, $6 million) and Sergei Bobrovsky (7 years, $10 million) were notably featured hit the free agent market by a new team. Some successful, others less so.
So we ask you the question: who will guard the CH network when he is ready to say the “p” word again?