We almost had a chaotic Week 13, but the main contenders all survived (sorry, Louisville) and we have the same eight contenders as last month. Seven of those eight teams are playing this weekend, including rivals that face off in the Pac-12 (Washington vs. Oregon rematch) and the SEC (Georgia vs. Alabama). There are many different outcome combinations that determine which four teams advance to the College Football Playoff, and my prediction model calculated how likely each team is to reach the foursome and win the national title.
We need to add some caveats to the forecasts this week. My season simulator uses a model I developed that selects playoff teams. The playoff selection model is quite simple and, in my opinion, very similar to the committee’s selection process in that it creates a “Resumé Strength Rating” derived from previous resume strength ratings, past playoff rankings and playoff selections for each season. This means that the model makes some assumptions in scenarios where there would be a massive debate.
To be honest, this season is unprecedented in terms of the number of qualified playoff teams this late in the season, so the algorithm won’t be great. For example, according to my method, Washington is 12-1 and Ohio State is 11-1. Does that mean the committee will agree to this? Who knows, but that’s partly why Ohio State’s CFP chances are so slim in these projections. It makes me tingle just thinking about Oregon possibly getting picked over Texas and Alabama.
Here’s how the national title contenders rank ahead of the conference championship games, according to my model.
Predicted national title and College Football Playoff chances
| team | title | play out |
|---|---|---|
29.8% | 69.6% | |
24.4% | 98.6% | |
17.4% | 64.7% | |
12% | 36.1% | |
8th % | 47.9% | |
4.7% | 54.7% | |
3.4% | 27.1% | |
0.3% | 1.3% |
Biggest movers in terms of national title chances
Michigan: +7.5% (16.9% to 24.4%)
Alabama: +5.4% (6.6% to 12%)
Texas: +2.9% (5.1% to 8%)
Biggest losses in national title chances
Ohio State: -14.7% (15% to 0.3%)
Washington: -4.2% (7.6% to 3.4%)
Louisville: -0.7% (0.7% to 0%)
Biggest movers in CFP odds
Michigan: +32.7% (65.9% to 98.6%)
Texas: +20.4% (27.5% to 47.9%)
Oregon: +19% (45.7% to 64.7%)
It’s obvious why Michigan is here. Texas is here in part because the Longhorns are playing Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game instead of Oklahoma. Oregon has cleared the Oregon State hurdle and is in the Pac-12 title game for a rematch against Washington, which continues to decline in my model due to unimpressive results. My model favors Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.
Florida State narrowly missed out on the top three here, but also saw a big increase in CFP odds. The Seminoles are still considered national title hopefuls after Jordan Travis’ injury and are a small favorite against Louisville, but it’s a win and a win in the CFP for FSU.
The Biggest Losses in CFP Odds
Ohio State: -56.2% (57.5% to 1.3%)
Washington: -23.6% (50.7% to 27.1%)
Georgia: -14.5% (84.1% to 69.6%)
Washington’s chances also fell because the Huskies are playing Oregon instead of Arizona, which wasn’t a certainty last week, and because the Huskies’ chances of making the playoffs have fallen at 12-1 as the other top teams avoid losses could
The case of Georgia is interesting. The win at Georgia Tech increased the Bulldogs’ national title hopes slightly (from 29.5% to 29.8%). However, Georgia’s CFP hopes fell last week as, like Washington, Georgia’s chances of coming into the game at 12-1 fell due to a lack of surprises. Georgia is the favorite to beat Alabama and at 12-1 still has plenty of opportunities to get into the CFP, but there aren’t as many of them as there were a week ago.
(Photo by Blake Corum: Aaron J. Thornton / Getty Images)