COP28 is an opportunity to take stock of the Paris Climate Agreement. Countries must report on the results of previous measures. Before this meeting, Franceinfo consulted several analyzes on the subject.
Goals are far from being achieved. COP28, taking place in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, will provide an opportunity for countries around the world to take stock of the goals set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Eight years after the adoption of this international treaty, which obliges the signatories to limit warming to “well below” 2 ° C and 1.5 ° C, the 194 member states and the European Union will therefore continue the previous measures to contain global warming Assess warming and adapt to its consequences. This work will be an important prerequisite for the mandatory review of national action plans until 2025 and the COP30 planned in Brazil.
The lights are red. The negotiators themselves also recognize this: “Unfortunately, we all agree that we are still far from where we should be,” franceinfo regrets Stéphane Crouzat, France’s climate ambassador. Before the political transcription of this work, here you will find the various analyzes already published.
According to an initial assessment, the world is “not on track to achieve its goals”.
A first document was published by the UN Climate in September. This is the technical assessment of the Paris Agreement, carried out with the aim of preparing the assessment that will be negotiated by States at COP28 on the basis of the national action plans of each signatory country. “Since its adoption, the Paris Agreement has driven near-universal climate action, but despite the progress made, the global community is not on track to achieve the long-term goals it sets out,” we can say. Read there. The report is indeed concerned that global greenhouse gas emissions are “not following modeled mitigation pathways” that would allow warming to be limited to 1.5°C and that the opportunities to comply with the Paris Agreement are “rapidly dwindling “.
“The first global inventory comes at a crucial time for accelerating collective progress. All actors must do much more on all fronts to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.”
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
in his technical assessment
The document calls for a global recovery and emphasizes the need to move away from fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas), accelerate the deployment of renewable energy and unlock financial mechanisms for adaptation, transition and development. According to the UN, the envelope to be filled is “trillion billion dollars”. “We must transform systems in all sectors and in all contexts, in particular by developing renewable energy, while gradually eliminating all fossil fuels without mitigation, by ending deforestation, by reducing emissions other than CO2 and by applying measures , which are aimed at both supply and demand,” the experts write. So many solutions are often already “ready for use” and are waiting for the political will.
“Huge steps” are necessary to close the gaps of the past
The UN has published another analysis that goes into detail about national climate plans. According to them, countries’ current commitments will result in a 2% reduction in emissions between 2019 and 2030. Instead of the 43% recommended by the IPCC, warming should be limited to 1.5°C. The UN analysis, “consistent with last year’s findings, shows that while emissions will no longer increase after 2030 compared to 2019, they are still not showing the rapid decline this decade that science believes is necessary.” , emphasize the authors.
This result shows that governments need to move from “small steps” to “big leaps” at COP28, said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. “We have now lost our way,” he warns. “Inch-like progress will not be enough,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. “The time is ripe for a supernova of climate ambition in every country, every city and every sector,” he added.
Warming could exceed the 1.5°C target
What consequences could this lack of ambition have for the climate? The Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a reference body created by a community of experts and managed by environmental NGOs, attempts to answer this question. The answer is between 1.8°C and 2.7°C of warming over the century. About +1.8°C if we are “optimistic” and assume that all promises made by states will be implemented properly. And +2.7°C on average, if we want to be realistic, based on real “policies and measures”, explains the CAT, accompanied by the German institute NewClimate, in its analysis from November 2022 and follows: “39 countries and the EU , covering 85% of global emissions”.
The observation is shared by the IPCC. In their latest report, the experts commissioned by the UN write: “In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions will be due to …” [plans d’actions des Etats] The climate measures announced by October 2021 make warming above 1.5°C likely in the 21st century and make it difficult to limit it below 2°C.” Translation: Without more ambitious action plans, the two vital thresholds for warming set out in the Paris Agreement will fall remain out of reach of humanity.