This story is excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to receive it regularly in your inbox.
From the Mets’ perspective, there is perhaps no more exciting storyline for Winter Meetings than the pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
While the rumors surrounding Shohei Ohtani and other players certainly remain, Yamamoto and the Mets appear to be the best fit between player and team. And there is no better forum for conversation than the winter meetings scheduled to begin Monday in Nashville.
But who is Yamamoto? Why do the Mets want him? Here’s a quick primer on one of this offseason’s top free agents.
Who is this Yamamoto guy anyway?
He’s the best pitcher in Japan right now, period. Yamamoto just won the Sawamura Award – Nippon Professional Baseball’s version of the Cy Young – for the third consecutive year (defeating Kodai Senga, among others, in previous years). His ERA over the last five seasons is 1.64, including a mark of 1.16 this season.
Statistically speaking, Yamamoto has had even more NPB success than Senga, who has clearly adjusted to Major League Baseball quite well. Yamamoto doesn’t strike out quite as many batters as Senga, but he walks less and almost never allows home runs.
The kicker? He just turned 25 years old. It’s worth debating whether Yamamoto is poised to become the best Japanese pitcher of all time to move to Major League Baseball. If all goes well, his career could rival or even surpass that of Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Hideo Nomo.
What kind of contract does it envisage? What about the booking fee?
The industry consensus is that Yamamoto should command at least $200 million as a free agent. With major market giants like the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox all reportedly interested in Yamamoto, that number could go even higher.
There is no one on the market as good as Yamamoto, a premier pitcher well under 30 years old. Senga’s success on this side of the Pacific has also encouraged teams looking to attract Japanese talent.
Over the years, the posting system for Japanese players has evolved to resemble regular free agent procedures. Today, such players can negotiate freely with any MLB team before paying a fee. The successful bidder must pay the sending team – in this case the Orix Buffaloes – a percentage of the final value only after the contract has been signed.
Is New York a realistic option?
Rumors that Yamamoto prefers a West Coast destination are categorically false, according to a person with knowledge of the pitcher’s mindset. The truth is that Yamamoto will consider all potential markets. Additionally, New York is perhaps the city in the United States that most resembles Osaka, where Yamamoto played all seven of his NPB seasons. These two metropolitan areas are similar in size and baseball passion.
Ultimately, as with most negotiations, it comes down to money. Steve Cohen has more of these than any other owner in baseball, putting the Mets in the best position to make a top offer on the market. While other teams are turning their attention to Ohtani (and the Mets will certainly look at him as well), New York may be the club most motivated to make a strong run at Yamamoto. Currently, the Mets only have two starting pitchers in their rotation. At 25 years old, Yamamoto could provide vital help not only next summer, but for years to come.
So, yes, there is a reasonable chance that the Mets end up being the highest bidder for Yamamoto. If that’s the case, they’ll be strong contenders to sign him even in the face of stiff competition. Yamamoto’s agent Joel Wolfe recently told Japanese reporters that more than a dozen clubs had shown serious interest in the pitcher.
How does Senga feel about all this?
According to a person with knowledge of the matter, Senga contacted Yamamoto before his deployment and told him he would be happy if Yamamoto signed with the Mets.
Senga’s presence could help Yamamoto in several ways. Given that this would be the Mets’ second high-profile Japanese addition in 13 months, they already have the infrastructure in place for a smooth transition.
Last year, pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and his staff drafted a blueprint that would allow Senga to adopt a pitching schedule every five games, as opposed to the once-a-week routine in Japan. The team also hired Japanese staff and even expanded its clubhouse offerings to include food options, among other touches designed to keep Senga comfortable. Yamamoto can benefit from this if he decides to sign a contract in New York.
When could he sign?
Yamamoto’s post last Monday opened a 45-day window for teams to sign him. This expires January 4th at 5:00 pm ET.
However, a source familiar with the process said they did not expect it to take that long. The reality is that Yamamoto can sign at any time and will likely do so before the deadline. Even if a contract is not signed at the winter meetings, the process there is likely to gain significant momentum – similar to Senga. A solution before Christmas seems plausible.