In just a few months, Putin went from a precipitous decline in consensus (reflected more in economic numbers than in police-policed places) to an astonishing upswing. First, the decision to invade Ukraine risked its destruction, then the same “special operation” (though certainly unsuccessful) strengthens its power. And even those in the nomenklatura who began to distance themselves from him (in a discreet manner, of course) moved closer to him again and restored the conditions for keeping him permanently at the head of Russia. The alarm sounded in the columns of the Washington Post Mikhail Zygar, a Russian journalist and writer living in exile in the US: He wrote: “All the men of the Kremlin: in Vladimir Putin’s court” and “War and war”. Punishment”. He founded the dissident channel Dozhd and has repeatedly denounced the strength of Russian propaganda, which makes many Russians believe that the invasion of Ukraine was justified because it is difficult to accept injustice as the nomenklatura one grew up thinking about believes and which one denies.
Zygar writes: “Twenty months ago, after Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, many Russian upper classes believed his end was near.” The economy was facing catastrophe and Putin’s regime was on the verge of collapse. Today the atmosphere has changed radically. Business leaders, officials and ordinary people tell me that the economy has stabilized and is defying Western sanctions that were once expected to have a devastating effect. They say Putin’s regime appears to be more stable than at any time in the last two years.
The economy is prospering, as indicators such as the expansion of the catering industry and the increase in real estate market prices seem to show. The panic of 2022 is subsiding. And even the storefronts that western brands had abandoned were filled with local brands. The oligarchs’ treasures are no longer invested abroad, but rather domestically, thus further supporting the economy. Domestic tourism is also growing.
In September, Bloomberg reported that Russian oligarchs reinvested at least $50 billion in Russia after the invasion. A very modest estimate, says journalist Zygar.
“The fact that war companies are expanding – we read in the Washington Post – was predictable, but the stability of raw material exports was not: Moscow continues to sell oil and gas not only to China and India, but also to European countries through intermediaries.” . So the alliance with China avoids the international isolation (remember the Cold War?) that the Russians may have feared.
The International Monetary Fund itself had estimated that the Russian economy would contract by 2.3% in 2023. In January 2023, the IMF changed its forecast and predicted growth of 2.2% in October.
Symbolic, as Zygar still reminds us today, is the case of the tycoon Mikhail Fridman, co-founder of Russia’s largest private bank, who cautiously criticized the war against Ukraine from his headquarters in London. However, he got himself into trouble in Britain, where he was arrested on money laundering and conspiracy charges: thanks to bail, he quickly got out, just in time to be hit by American sanctions. In the end the surrender and the return from London to Moscow after a stopover in Tel Aviv. And a lot of oligarchs thought about him: better to stay or return to the safety of Russia.
Finally, the war between Hamas and Israel has further helped Putin, who can exploit the difficulties of the United States and Europe. And, paradoxically, there is also a growing consensus among the lower classes, among the unemployed in the poorest regions, who are accepting what they have always rejected: putting on a uniform to fight in Ukraine may be worth the risk of dying if you get 10% times the price. Amount of an average salary.
Russia, the author concludes, has and will always have difficulties in obtaining technology (for example, spare parts for aircraft with companies that could even close), but now there is a growing belief that Putin will always remain firmly in power.
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on Il Messaggero