Both Israel and Hamas could gain much from an extension of the current ceasefire. But experts say the resumption of Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip is inevitable.
The lull in fighting between Israel and Hamas – during which the militant group released kidnapped hostages on October 7 in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons – has now entered its sixth and possibly final day. Still, negotiators are working toward another extension that could result in the release of more hostages and extend the pause in the Israeli military’s campaign in Gaza.
For Israel, an extension means the return of dozens more hostages, which is particularly important for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has come under intense pressure from the Israeli public to bring the hostages home. For Hamas, it represents a respite from the fighting, a chance to regroup and benefit from the aid that is gradually flowing into the besieged area.
In the first five days of the ceasefire, Hamas released 81 hostages, mostly women and children. Around 240 hostages were kidnapped during the Hamas attack on Israel.
Israel has released 180 Palestinian women and minors from prison, many of whom were detained and never charged.
“The main interest (for the Israelis) is to bring these hostages home,” Gershon Baskin, a former Israeli hostage-taker who once served as a Hamas broker, told CNN. “The whole country sits in front of the television and watches as they are transported in Red Cross cars and then end up in Israel.”
For Hamas, Baskin said, there is no need to hold civilian hostages. “It’s a strain on their logistics,” he said, adding that they probably just want to hold Israeli troops hostage. Israel has not said how many of its soldiers are being held by the militant group, but Baskin said there is little expectation that Hamas will release them under the current deal.
With a ceasefire extension, Hamas may also hope to increase international pressure on Israel to prevent a resumption of war, Baskin said, pointing out that Israeli society is anticipating a conflict that would eliminate Hamas once and for all. overwhelmingly in favor.
A public poll in Israel conducted earlier this month by the Israel Democracy Institute found that a majority of respondents believe “Israel should immediately negotiate with Hamas to release the hostages in Gaza, but not stop fighting.”
Some ministers in Israel’s far-right government are making greater efforts to ensure fighting resumes. Israel’s Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, on Tuesday tthreatened to dissolve the governing coalition when the war ends.
But negotiations are likely to be complicated by reports that Hamas is not in possession of all the hostages. A diplomatic source briefed on the negotiations told CNN on Monday that no more than 40 hostages are currently being held by Hamas, and CNN has previously reported that an estimated 40 to 50 hostages were being held by Palestinian Islamic Jihad or other groups or individuals.
Israel believes there are 159 hostages still in the Gaza Strip, Netanyahu’s office told CNN on Wednesday.
Baskin said it was extremely unlikely that Hamas would be unable to locate the remaining hostages after seven weeks, adding that the group was likely promoting the message to stall negotiations.
“It is a delaying tactic on the part of Hamas,” he said, adding that the group was too powerful and too central in the enclave to lose track of the hostages.