The loyal fans who follow the Canadian’s rebuild are thrilled when we grow impatient with the team’s progress. In the name of possible progress, they forgive almost everything. But if we want to be consistent, patient and logical, we have to replace Samuel Montembeault.
My colleague Kevin Dubé’s excellent analysis also makes Kent Hughes’ problem clear.
Montembeault is 27 years old. Statistics show that goaltending improves until age 29 and then declines.
The numbers from Sportlogiq speak for themselves.
If we analyze the number of bad goals allowed relative to the number of goals saved, we see that goalkeepers start to fall into the negative after the age of 30.
In other words: they allow more bad goals than they save goals.
Of course, these are just statistics. There are exceptions. We can also trust our instincts to assess a goalkeeper’s future. But there’s a reason why every NHL team now has an expanded statistics department in their management.
If you play blackjack based on instinct instead of relying on the odds, you will quickly find yourself ruined.
It could be slower
Let’s return to Montembeault. He is doing better. He shows signs of being a goalkeeper who could become number one.
But mathematically, he still has two seasons left in his prime. After that it will probably slow down.
In two years the core will still be too young to strive for victory. Caufield will be 24, Guhle 23. David Reinbacher, Logan Mailloux and Slafkovsky won’t have much of an impact yet. And that probably won’t be the case next year either.
But if CH’s hopes take effect and the current core is made up of veterans (Caufield, Suzuki, Guhle, Dach), there is a risk that Montembeault in front of the net will no longer be the solution.
The value of Montembeault has never been higher. For a team looking to rebuild, it’s worth its weight in gold. Several teams are looking for stability in goal. CEOs can be tempted to go easy on their skin, especially in Alberta, I’m talking about the oily team.
The Canadian will not get Wayne Gretzky in exchange. But if he can get a second-round pick or a young player who can be of longer-term use, that’s interesting. Especially when we remember that Montembeault was obtained through a waiver.
We can see very clearly that the victory in Montreal this year is not that important. Otherwise, Montembeault would be in front of the net more often, while Josh Anderson would no longer be on the power play.
And the team wouldn’t do much testing to see if Caufield can generate offense even when playing with Christian Dvorak.
The price to be paid for reconstruction
If CH wants to implement its rebuilding plan, it will have to trade Montembeault for something that will be more useful in three, four or five years.
It’s boring, but it’s another difficult price to pay in a rebuilding process. Cayden Primeau and Jake Allen will have to keep the club in the game while they wait for Kent Hughes to find the solution going forward in net. They won’t win the Vezina Trophy, but so far they won’t let their team lose when they’re in net. It’s just that they don’t help the club win either.
