The Bolivarian Republic is holding a referendum on Sunday to legitimize its claims to Essequibo, a region of the neighboring country with enormous oil reserves. But Caracas denies allegations of future military annexation.
This Sunday, December 3, 21 million Venezuelans are invited to vote in a referendum on a question that may seem surreal: Do you agree or disagree with a court decision from 1899? The one who awarded the United Kingdom part of the Amazon jungle disputed between Venezuela and the British colony of Guyana. It seems that today we are asking Italians whether they agree to the annexation of Nice and Savoy to France, which dates back to 1860. The difference is that the current conflict is an area that is full of black gold.
This 160,000 km2 region (almost a third of France) is called Esequibo (or Guiana Esequiba) in Venezuela and Essequibo with 2 “s” in Guyana, an independent state since 1966, a century and a half after its neighbor. . In the 19th century, Venezuela accused the British colonizer of seizing land west of the Essequibo River in violation of the colonial border established in 1777. The dispute was brought before international courts and a tribunal met in Paris. His 1899 “arbitration award” ruled in Guyana’s favor.
Reserves of 10 billion barrels
Venezuelans have maintained a stubborn grudge and have included the area on their official maps (as China does with Taiwan) for more than a century. The country attempted to renegotiate on several occasions, most notably in 1966, on the eve of Guyana’s declaration of independence: a meeting in Geneva ended with an agreement that provided for … continuing the search for a solution. One of the demands from Caracas today is to resume this round table.
Although the Venezuelan military begins each day with the slogan “The sun of Venezuela is born in Esequibo,” the issue barely mobilized the country’s opinion until President Nicolás Maduro put it back at the top of his agenda. 2015: Guyana had just announced that prospecting by the American company ExxonMobil had uncovered huge deposits of oil and natural gas in the Essequibo.
On the Guyanese side, the Bolivarian Republic’s claim is unacceptable. It would amount to depriving the country of 70% of its territory, 20% of its inhabitants and, of course, the oil resources worthy of an emirate: estimates put it at over 10 billion barrels. In 1997, local singer Dave Martins and his group The Tradewinds recorded a calypso that reflected the sentiments of the people and leaders: “We will not give up a blade of grass from the Essequibo” (“Not a Blade of Grass”).
The fever started again last August when Georgetown (capital of Guyana) launched tenders for oil activities in the Essequibo maritime zone. On October 24, the Venezuelan president announced a referendum to legitimize his position. Facing what it described as an “existential threat,” Guyana appealed to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the United Nations’ highest court, seeking an “urgent” halt to the vote “in its current form.” The country had already contacted the court in 2018 to resolve this territorial dispute, over which it declared itself “competent” in 2020, causing Caracas a first setback. Then a second, this Friday, December 1, ordering Venezuela to refrain from any action that would change the status quo in Essequibo, pending the decision of the International Court of Justice, which could wait several years.
Observers noted that the socialist president’s announcement came at a time when he needed a media offensive: the day after the opposition primaries for the 2024 presidential election, in which the ultra-liberal María Corina Machado triumphed. The opposition itself, which does not dare to directly oppose this demand, which is more of a consensus in Venezuela, fears that the Chavista power will take advantage of the dispute to impose a state of emergency and suspend the electoral process.
Fear of violent annexation
The referendum, the result of which is beyond doubt (only participation gives an idea of popular mobilization), concerns five questions that are as confused as they are biased: The first is: “Are you happy to vote against it by any means available?” in law, the boundary line fraudulently imposed by the Paris Arbitration Decision of 1899, claiming to have stolen our Guiana Esequiba?
But it is the fifth point that most angers President Irfaan Ali, elected in Guyana in 2020: “Do you agree that a Guyana Esequiba state will be created and that an accelerated development plan will be introduced?” […] This includes, among other things, the granting of citizenship and a Venezuelan identity card, [et] to consequently incorporate this state into the entire Venezuelan territory? Many have read this formulation as a desire for violent annexation.
The hypothesis of a military invasion is taken seriously in the chancellery. In Brazil, a country bordering Venezuela and Guyana, the Defense Ministry said Friday that it had “intensified its defense operations in the northern border region and increased its military presence.” For his part, researcher Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky wonders in an analysis published by the website New Latino Spaces: “Maybe [Nicolás Maduro] Is he thinking about the unexpected effects of the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, which enabled Azerbaijan, for example, to retake Nagorno-Karabakh after a brief blitzkrieg?
Caracas has denied any military preparations on the border and any warlike intentions, as Georgetown had accused. And Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez wanted to reassure the 125,000 residents of Essequibo, all of them English-speaking: “They know that Venezuela is a country of peace.” However, those who have not yet planned to ask them for their opinion.