Arnaldo Otegi and Andoni Ortuzar at the ETA dissolution ceremony in Cambo (France) in May 2018.GETTY
PNV has brought an end to the era of Íñigo Urkullu; Arnaldo Otegi has been removed from the EH Bildu poster. These are two notable departures from the Basque election campaign that suddenly became known within just 24 hours. A new scenario is thus opening up in Euskadi, with renewed leaders and no clear favorites in one of the closest and most transcendent elections in recent times. At stake is who will assume the supremacy of nationalism.
The two main Basque parties have decided to present new faces (the PSE-EE and the PP have already done so a few weeks before) while waiting for the Lehendakari to put an end to the 12th Basque legislature, which does not last until July can be extended beyond 2024. Both the PNV and EH Bildu have justified these movements with the need to embark on a total renewal and to present themselves with candidates who will better connect with a generation of voters who, after the end of ETA, are already in the post-terror -era is anchored.
“The change of posters,” says Itziar García Carretero, a political communications consultant, “is a response to signs that Basque society feels a certain dissatisfaction and distance from the current ruling class.” The challenge is to find a strategic positioning , which manages to excite voters.” Now it remains to be seen whether these movements will succeed in mobilizing an electorate that turned away from the parties four years ago, which was reflected in an abstention rate of almost 50%.
“It is not a replacement, it is a succession,” assured the president of Peneuvista, Andoni Ortuzar, this week, trying to undermine the attempt to replace Urkullu with Imanol Pradales, provincial deputy for infrastructure in Bizkaia, who is outside the Batzokis is unknown. Otegi, on the other hand, justified his withdrawal as follows: “My place is not in parliament, but at the center of Basque politics.”
Imanol Zubero, doctor of sociology and professor at the University of the Basque Country, claims that “the PNV has made a change in a forced way and at a different pace.” In the case of Bildu, it is an operation intended to replace the PNV , because it should be remembered that Herri Batasuna was born for this. For many years he insisted on taking the path of rupture and now he has realized that the path of reform is better.” This reality can already be observed in Congress: “The PNV is no longer the Basque party that in “Madrid is negotiating because Bildu is there too,” says Zubero.
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Another political observer, a law professor who prefers to keep his name hidden, says: “EH Bildu breathes easier without Urkullu at the helm of the PNV and sees the bypass that he has been striving for for years within reach.” Urkullu offered his party that transversal voting that was not strictly nationalist, the support of many people who saw in him the absence of glamor but at the same time identified him with common sense, discipline to the point of boredom and the ability to ensure politics “It will be a roller coaster ride. “
Iñaki Galdos, political analyst and former leader of Hamaikabat (a splinter of Eusko Alkartasuna), believes that the PNV has failed in its forms, but was right about the chosen candidate: “Urkullu’s departure was very loud because it was poorly managed , but the decision is consistent with the need to stop the electoral setback. Pradales is a good poster and has the advantage of being able to build the entire story.”
The PNV approaches the regional elections with some deterioration in its image, the result of accumulated attrition after 12 years in autonomous government. In the 2020 Basque elections he led EH Bildu by 11 percentage points (100,000 votes more), but this gap has since narrowed. First in this year’s local elections (the pro-independence coalition was only 2.5 points behind, but won more mayoralties) and then in the July parliamentary elections, which the Socialists won in Euskadi (there was a technical tie between PNV and Bildu, with only 1,100 votes difference in favor of the first). According to Zubero’s vision, Ortuzar’s party is facing a “generational decline” because “traditionally their electorate is at the demographic peak and this aging voter is disappearing.” On the other hand, the nationalist left has “managed to expand its scope through a more moderate and pragmatic discourse.” “The absence of the ETA allows it to attract youth, student, environmentalist and feminist sectors… where the PNV does not have as much weight,” he adds.
ETA’s violence was the Basques’ main concern during the years it was active. A decade ago, two years after the announcement of the “final cessation” of terrorist actions, it had already fallen to eighth place on the list of problems, according to Basque government polls. Currently, after 12 years without attacks and five years after the dissolution of ETA, terrorism is no longer on the list. The concerns now go elsewhere: to the labor market, public health, the housing situation or the insecurity of citizens.
Faced with this scenario, Otegi steps aside and makes way for a candidate without any stripes in the age of terrorism. “Arnaldo,” emphasizes Zubero, “has too much past.” “He has the whole past in front of him and the whole future behind him.” Otegi presented himself as Euskal Herritarrok’s presidential candidate in 1998 and 2001. He was also at the top of the list in 2016, the year he was released from prison, but the electoral board supported his candidacy because he was expelled from the party after his conviction and voted for the Bateragune case, which was canceled years later.
Another observer analyzes it this way: “Faulkner said that the past is never dead, it is not even the past. “Otegi’s backpack is too heavy.” Galdos doubts that the sovereignist leader had made this decision more than a year ago: “The Otegi option was on the table, but the PNV’s decision to forego Urkullu accelerated his movement .” It was very significant that after Lehendakari’s speech at the General Policy plenary session, Otegi and not a representative of his group appeared before the media at Parliament House to give his political assessment of Bildu.
According to the polls, a victory for EH Bildu is possible. Another thing is access to power. This is unlikely unless public transport is canceled. The PNV-PSE alliance, which has allowed them to govern the main Basque institutions since 2015, represents an obstacle to the nationalist coalition’s access to Ajuria Enea. The Socialists will play a crucial role in the ability to govern. “The PSOE gave Bildu wings in the last legislative period, but in the negotiations to now invest Pedro Sánchez, it has treated the PNV with greater care,” notes Galdos. Eneko Andueza, leader of the Basque Socialists and Lehendakari candidate, has already made it clear this week: “If you ask me if I will make a Lehendakari candidate for EH Bildu, I will say no, and if you ask me if I . “I will say no.”
This blocking of their acronym is not understood in the nationalist ranks. If an agreement is possible in Navarre (EH Bildu supports President María Chivite of the PSN) or in the central government, why not in the Basque Country?, they ask. Otegi has already stated that in these elections the PNV and PSE are “entering a coalition” and have prepared a “job-saving government”, alluding to an unnatural pact with the PP when they need the votes of that party whose only goal is not It would be both the defense of the country’s interests and the preservation of numerous jobs for these trainings in the Basque public administrations.
There is another relevant factor that also works against EH Bildu. The regulated procedure for investing the Lehendakari, unlike the system for electing the President envisaged by Congress, prevents the blocking and repetition of regional elections. In the first round, an absolute majority in Parliament is required (38 votes out of a total of 75), but in the second round, the candidate with the most votes is appointed Lehendakari. In an extreme but possible case, a candidate could be elected as Lehendakari with a single vote if the rest of the chamber abstains. Urkullu was already appointed Basque president in 2012 with 27 votes (only those of his party), i.e. as many abstentions and six more than Laura Mintegi (Bildu). The independentists already know what it means to win and be relegated to the opposition. This happened recently, after the local elections last May, in the provincial council of Gipuzkoa and in the city councils of Vitoria and Durango, where the Abertzale coalition was the force with the most votes. In these three cases, the PP gave its votes for free in order to block the path of EH Bildu in these institutions.
The PSE and the PP are starting “in a more rested position,” says Zubero. The popular parties have elected Javier de Andrés at the top of the list, who presents himself with a regionalist speech and defense of Basque autonomy: “A PP that is not anti-Basque, anti-Basque, anti-autonomy… punishes them .” Options. The situation in Spanish politics complicates the situation. “His connection with Vox can contaminate the Basque PP.” And he says: “PSE and PP rely on their own resources and tactics.” On the other hand, PNV and EH Bildu are making movements based on the opposite. There is a very close connection between the two and that makes the situation very complicated.”
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