Venezuela will vote this Sunday in the consultative referendum on the historic territorial dispute it has with neighboring Guyana over the Essequibo, a jungle area under Guyanese jurisdiction that is larger than what Portugal and Caracas claim. The atmosphere is characterized by tension and uncertainty. This is an issue with which Chavismo has raised the flag of sovereignty, with which on other occasions it has opened international political fronts that allow it to control its internal tides. But this may be the occasion where he went one step further. The government has launched a huge nationalist campaign to promote a map of Venezuela that includes the 160,000 square kilometer territory of Guayana Esequiba, rich in oil and minerals, equivalent to two-thirds of this small country and owned by both nations claim. .
Nicolás Maduro has launched an intense nationalist campaign, while the opposition has managed to unite around the candidacy of María Corina Machado, elected in successful primaries against him in the 2024 presidential elections. Posters, concerts, merchandising, military rallies, incessant advertising on social networks demanding Essequibo for Venezuela.
On the other side of the disputed border, a war narrative with more explicit movements was created. A few days ago, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali stood in military uniform in the disputed territory, just a few meters from the border with Venezuela, raised his flag on a small hill and spent a night there with his military.
This Friday there was a new movement in the panel before the United Nations International Court of Justice based in The Hague, to which Guyana turned to resolve the controversy and where it requested the suspension of the Venezuelan referendum because it was considered a threat became. Chavismo considered it a victory that the organization did not explicitly suspend the process, even though the United Nations court reiterated its warnings to Caracas “not to do anything that alters the situation in the territory that Guyana de facto administers and controls.” The content of the dispute over the territory analyzed by the court is clarified, namely the validity of the border defended by Guyana. The judges also raised concerns about one of the issues raised in the consultation. In the court decision, the court in The Hague calls on the parties to refrain from any actions that could aggravate or expand the dispute.
Sunday’s referendum is a consultative referendum that has been raising alarm bells since it was announced, a day after Venezuela’s opposition held primaries that exceeded turnout expectations. The seriousness may lie in some of the five questions that Venezuelans will be asked this Sunday, when all voting centers in the country are open and Chavismo also takes the opportunity to measure its strengths to mobilize the electorate.
The fifth question is the one that arouses the most distrust, since with it the government seeks to empower the people to establish a state in the disputed territory and to give a Venezuelan identity to the just over 125,000 people who live and already live in this strip of jungle Guyanese wants to lend. This has been interpreted as an occupation of the territory in question with voter support and some international analysts believe that the possibility of armed conflict in Latin America is on the table.
“Never before have there been such great tensions between Guyana and Venezuela as now,” says Rocío San Miguel, security and defense specialist and director of the Citizen Control organization. At least not since the Rupununi uprising in 1969, in which a separatist group of indigenous Indians asked Venezuela for support to create an independent district in the southern part of the Essequibo and were repelled by Guyana’s armed forces.
People demonstrate in the streets of Caracas during the conclusion of the referendum campaign for Essequibo, December 1, 2023. MIGUEL GUTIERREZ (EFE)
Internal politics
The questions about the referendum tell part of this old story that Chavismo has now dusted off. The first aims to reject the basis of Guyana’s argument to receive the treatment that represents the line drawn in the Paris Arbitration Award of 1899, in a decision that was seen as rigged and partly in favor of the English, who were involved with the When Guyana was founded in 1831, the British began to occupy a territory – larger than countries such as England or Cuba – which, although it had been on the maps of the old Captain General of Venezuela since 1777, had not been settled and exploited by Spain, and after of independence, a Venezuela in ruins, he was no longer in a position to have both.
Secondly, it is about confirming the basis of Venezuela’s argument: the Geneva Agreement of 1966, promoted by the United Nations, which was the only framework for resolving the territorial conflict and introduced peaceful mechanisms that did not produce results and that half a century later ended. at the International Court of Justice after Guyana filed a lawsuit in 2018, which the court admitted two years later. This procedure determines the validity of the 1899 arbitration award.
Venezuelan analyst San Miguel warns that this process could have consequences not only on the international stage, but also for domestic politics. For the lawyer, the referendum can become a tool to distinguish between “patriots and traitors”, as happened during the government of Hugo Chávez with the so-called Tascón list, which exposed the data of those who signed the revocation of the former President Chavez. This information was used to track, dismiss and filter loyalties in public administration. The tension over this possibility is already palpable on the streets, in everyday conversations where people debate whether or not they should vote and what impact that decision might have on them.
“There will be no war on December 4th,” says San Miguel. “But the conflict with Guyana will be directly proportional to the dangers the government faces as it heads towards the 2024 presidential election.” Several questions in the referendum suggest “opposing by all means” Guyana’s measures, which is for the government, according to the expert, could become a blank check to order a national mobilization to suspend the elections. 2024, a way out of the possible loss of power, if he is forced to authorize all candidates and make more concessions, making it competitive elections. “This could happen in Venezuela by pushing a button to escalate any military clash at the border, leading to the declaration of a state of emergency.”
International geopolitics puts Venezuela at a disadvantage in a scenario like this, where Guyana is supported by powers such as the United States and the United Kingdom and even common neighbor Brazil. Starting in 2015, Guyana began awarding maritime oil concessions in the waters off the Essequibo, a latest exploitation that will soon make this small South American country the richest in the region in terms of per capita income.
Another issue raised in the consultations is related to Venezuela’s claim that the UN court does not have jurisdiction in this case, and with the third issue the country hopes to gain popular support for its threats to do so to withdraw from the international judicial body. . “This is the biggest mistake that Venezuela could make, because this is the space in which it can present evidence and accusations,” says the expert. The court has given Venezuela until April 2024 to submit a written report on its position on the Paris arbitration award and borders. In 2025, the court could decide the borders, and if Venezuela backs down, Guyana will certainly take the lead.
But the referendum was the flight forward with which Maduro countered the mobilization in the primaries, in which María Corina Machado received 92% of the vote. The opposition leader has also raised her voice against the referendum, saying it could harm Venezuela in its defense at the International Court of Justice. For this reason, it was also criticized by Chavismo, who turned the issue into a patriotic crusade for sovereignty.
Although Machado is the unity candidate, her participation in the presidential elections is on hold due to her disqualification. The recent candidate empowerment mechanism announced by Norwegian social media moderators, which imposes a series of obligations on those interested in having their cases reviewed by the Supreme Court, misses the point somewhat. They are asked to participate in the process of “honoring and defending the homeland” and “securing and protecting sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Follow all international information on Facebook and Xor in our weekly newsletter.