Matias Delacroix/AP
A ship creates an artificial island by extracting offshore sand to create a coastal port for offshore oil production at the mouth of the Demerara River in Georgetown, Guyana, Tuesday, April 11, 2023. Guyana is poised to become the world’s fourth-largest offshore oil producer, ahead of Qatar, the United States, Mexico and Norway. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
CNN –
Venezuelans voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to take over an oil-rich region in neighboring Guyana – the latest escalation in a long-running territorial dispute between the two countries that has been fueled by the recent discovery of vast offshore energy resources.
The affected area, the densely forested Essequibo region, covers about two-thirds of Guyana’s territory and is about the size of Florida.
Sunday’s largely symbolic referendum asked voters whether they agreed to the creation of a Venezuelan state in the Essequibo region, the granting of Venezuelan citizenship to its people and the “incorporation of this state into the map of Venezuelan territory.”
In a news conference announcing the preliminary results of the first tranche of votes counted, Venezuela’s National Electoral Council said voters had decided “yes” to each of the five questions on the ballot more than 95% of the time.
However, it is unclear what steps the Venezuelan government would take to enforce its claim.
Venezuela has long claimed the country as its own, believing it to have been within its borders during the Spanish colonial period. It rejects an 1899 ruling by international arbitrators that established the current borders when Guyana was still a British colony, and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has expressed anti-imperialist sentiment on social media about the referendum.
Guyana described the move as a step toward annexation and an “existential threat.”
Last week, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali visited troops in Essequibo and dramatically raised a Guyanese flag on a mountain overlooking the border with Venezuela.
The International Court of Justice based in The Hague ruled before the vote that “Venezuela should not take any measures that would change the situation currently prevailing in the disputed territory.” After years of scrutiny and decades of failed negotiations, a trial is scheduled to take place in the spring on this topic. However, Venezuela does not recognize the jurisdiction of the court in this matter.
The result of the vote was widely expected in Venezuela, although analysts say its practical impact is likely to be minimal and the creation of a Venezuelan state within the Essequibo remains an unlikely possibility.
It is unclear what steps the Venezuelan government would take to implement the outcome, and any attempt to stake a claim would certainly face international opposition.
Still, the escalating rhetoric has led to troop movements in the region and saber rattling in both countries, prompting comparisons among Guyanese leaders to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many residents of the predominantly indigenous region are reportedly nervous.
“The long-standing border dispute between Guyana and Venezuela has reached a level of unprecedented tension in the relations between our countries,” Guyanese Foreign Minister Robert Persaud wrote in Americas Quarterly on Wednesday.
Even without holding the referendum, which would require further constitutional steps and likely the use of force, Maduro could benefit politically from the vote amid a difficult re-election campaign.
In October, Venezuela’s opposition showed rare momentum after rallying in the country’s first primary in 11 years around Maria Corina Machado, a former center-right lawmaker who had attacked Maduro for his role in rising inflation and food shortages was responsible.
“An authoritarian government that finds itself in a difficult political situation is always tempted to look for a patriotic theme so that it can wrap itself in the colors and rally support, and I think that’s a big part of what Maduro does,” said Phil Gunson, a Caracas-based analyst at the International Crisis Group.