This story is excerpted from the Blue Jays Beat newsletter by Keegan Matheson. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to receive it regularly in your inbox.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. – Dare to dream.
Imagine if the 2021 version of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could also pitch like Kevin Gausman. This is Shohei Ohtani, baseball’s brightest star.
He’s about to change the course of franchise history and sign a deal that will make your eyes pop out of your head. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan (subscription required), the Blue Jays remain one of the teams involved in Ohtani’s bid, along with the Dodgers, Cubs, Angels and possibly the Giants.
As the MLB Winter Meetings begin in Nashville, all eyes are on Ohtani, and if you’re the Blue Jays, nothing else matters until the decision is made. Here’s what you need to know:
WHAT’S IMPORTANT… AND WHAT’S NOT
The money counts. The contract details are important.
As much as we love to talk about how geography, personal relationships and championship chances influence these megadeals, money conversations, it’s usually the loudest voice at the table. With a deal expected to top $500 million, replacing Mike Trout’s current deal as the largest in the history of the game, the Blue Jays will have to enter a completely different spending universe.
Working in the interests of Toronto? You have the money. Although Roger’s ownership is sometimes more financially complicated than that of a single owner or group of investors, he gives the Blue Jays rare financial strength. The last few years have produced Hyun Jin Ryu, George Springer, Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. The Blue Jays aren’t just the newcomers to the high roller table, they belong there.
Of course, we can’t completely dismiss the extras. For Ohtani, Canada is a new market full of potential off the field and new fans. From the outside looking in – especially as a Canadian – that sounds attractive. Does this national market of 40 million people, similar to the population of California, realistically make any difference at all for Ohtani? What opportunities are there here that are not available elsewhere?
Ohtani attended the same high school as Yusei Kikuchi (Hanamaki Higashi), and while that familiarity can help, a year-long overlap with a No. 4 starter who attended the same high school at a different time is really a factor that will change a half billion dollar deal? It’s a reach.
So many of these “additional” factors can be crucial, but in the end it usually comes down to the contract. With Springer and Ryu as prime examples, the Blue Jays were willing to take that one extra step (in any case, an extra year than the rest of the market). What is this extra step for Ohtani? Think about opt-outs. Even with the extravagant deal Ohtani is expected to sign, he and his agent have all the bargaining power in the world to negotiate not one but multiple player opt-outs to maximize his future earnings or save him from a rebuild preserve. These could be crucial bargaining chips for a team looking to shock the baseball world.
OHTANI FITS THE BLUE JAYS
The best player in the world fits perfectly into any roster, but each will take a different shape and how Ohtani would fit with the Blue Jays is important.
After undergoing elbow surgery, Ohtani is expected to play without restrictions in 2024 and will be ready to return to the rotation as a two-way star in 2025 and beyond. He will be the everyday DH in 1924 regardless of where he signs, and in Toronto that wouldn’t require a secondary reshuffle. Brandon Belt is a free agent, Guerrero can beat his 34 DH games last season and the Blue Jays are consciously trying to make their catchers faster. Sliding Ohtani into that DH rep and potentially into the second spot in the lineup is about as easy as it gets.
On the mound, Ohtani’s return in 2025 would naturally coincide with Kikuchi entering the final season of his three-year contract. Bassitt would theoretically share the rotation with Ohtani for a season, and Ohtani could move up alongside Gausman and Berríos. Alek Manoah is the mystery man, while No. 1 contender Ricky Tiedemann represents the outright frontrunner of the group, regardless of what happens next.
If not Ohtani, expect the Blue Jays to be involved in the bid for Padres superstar Juan Soto, which would be the ultimate “win now” move. Soto has one more year of control over the team and it would take a huge extension to keep him from hitting free agency at age 26 (but perhaps that mental calculation will be easier once you’ve stretched your legs by considering an offer of half a billion dollars for Ohtani). …).
Cody Bellinger then leads the free agent bat and is a perfect fit for the Blue Jays in many ways, but could cost $200 million. At the next level, Matt Chapman or Jeimer Candelario are both options at third base, while Rhys Hoskins is a name to keep an eye on for the Blue Jays if they don’t land a big fish.
More likely? If neither Ohtani, Soto nor Bellinger end up with Toronto, the trade market offers more upside than free agency, and the Blue Jays have been busy pricing the market and preparing to enter should the time come.