In the final week before the playoffs begin in most leagues, we are faced with an interesting slate of games. The totals are as low as I’ve ever seen, including a 30-point over/under in the Thursday Night Football showdown between New England and Pittsburgh. But there are also some great duels on the program – including San Francisco vs. Seattle, Dallas vs. Philadelphia and Kansas City vs. Buffalo. While I saw a lot of close matchups in my leagues in Week 13, this week could bring a lot of setbacks as fantasy points aren’t evenly distributed.
If your guys are from Jacksonville, the LA Rams, Buffalo, Philadelphia, or Seattle, you could be in for a disappointing week. If your opponent’s roster consists of the Cowboys, Broncos, Chargers, 49ers, Colts or Packers, I would also be concerned. Not only is this week’s schedule more lopsided than usual, it’s also the final week of your final playoff push. That’s why I’m using this little introductory soapbox to encourage you to throw away everything you know and start over with a fresh reason and a beginner’s mind.
I’ve discussed this concept of beginner’s mind before and now I’m revisiting it as I review my lineups. Yes, same people, same slots, hit submit. But what if you could clear out all the slots and rebuild them just for this week? I mean, you can understand why DFS appeals to me so much, but the way a season’s rosters appear on your screen inherently limits your imagination. Taking a moment to imagine your dream team for this week against this opponent could lead you to putting together a slightly different squad. Forget which round you drafted him in. If CJ Beathard uses him against the Browns, you don’t want him in your starting lineup.
Beginner’s thinking doesn’t mean overthinking every decision and going against what you’ve done before. It just frees you up to think about the fact that you don’t have all the answers yet and may not have made the best roster move for Week 14 that you could when you consider your bench and the free agents available in your league. With that in mind, I’m going to modify my normal “Don’t Overthink It” section – which tells you to field good players despite bad matchups, bad weather, bad QB play, etc. – and instead focus on a few players you shouldn’t play. I won’t be going to the bench this week. As usual, we’ll end with a few players who aren’t yet starters in most leagues but have great potential for Week 14 lineups in need of reinforcements or replacements.
It’s okay to sit on the bench
Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram
With CJ Beathard the likely starter for Jacksonville against Cleveland – the league’s most daunting pass defense and fantasy’s worst nightmare – I’m avoiding any Jaguars not named Travis Etienne. The likelihood of Beathard making Ridley or Engram a winning play in the fantasy match is slim. Very low.
Nico Collins
Benching Collins probably goes against the grain of the fantasy rankings, but Sauce Gardner and the Jets’ secondary are in the top five in pass defense and give up the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers – by a long shot. In PPR leagues, Collins may be fine with his usual high volume, boosted somewhat by the loss of Tank Dell, but I also think he will see priority coverage. Noah Brown or Robert Woods could be the more open receivers on Sunday, and CJ Stroud isn’t the league’s leading passer because he can’t find the open man. The bottom line is that Collins has a big hurdle to overcome to give you a top-notch stat line this week. If you’re the manager of Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, then by all means use Collins. But if you’re struggling and need all the benefits you can find, Collins probably isn’t your type.
Tony Pollard
As forgiving as Philly’s pass defense is (giving up most fantasy points to opposing QBs and WRs), they give up the fewest to running backs. Pollard has had a polarizing season so far and after three good weeks, both the Primacy and Recency effects are screaming at us to keep him. Pollard had a few dupes in the middle of the week against friendly run defenses like Arizona and the Giants, but he hit a brick wall the first time he faced Philadelphia, let alone the 49ers, Patriots or Rams. If, like Collins, you have someone in the wings who could provide a heavy workload in a better match, I would go for it. Dallas isn’t stupid; They’ll go out and try to beat the Eagles through the air, just like they did the first time around when Prescott made a season-high 44 shots.
Matthew Stafford
With QBs flying around like flies in the NFL, you might not think you have the luxury of drafting someone like Stafford, who is coming off his two best games of the season. Still, I get a little nervous watching him face the Ravens in Baltimore. Baltimore is the worst QB matchup, third worst for WRs, and second worst overall for fantasy. They allow opponents the fewest number of points per game, lead the league in sacks per game and force an average of 1.6 turnovers per game. They also allow the fewest passing touchdowns in the league. I’m a broken record here, but this week’s game against Stafford is high and I’d rather not trust anyone in the Rams’ passing game. Puka Nacua is the only exception and even he poses risks this weekend.
Craft
Dameon Pierce
While the Texans face an impressive pass defense in the New York Jets, the running game should find an easier path to success. Pierce passed Devin Singletary in workload in Week 13 and scored the rushing touchdown. If he’s out of your league (I see him available in about 35 percent of Yahoo leagues) or if you’ve kept him on the bench, I like the idea of introducing him this week. Not only are the Jets more vulnerable to the run, but Houston is a big favorite here, which could mean a favorable scenario for Pierce. All signs point to a robust and successful Texans running game giving Pierce the edge he desires.
Jonathan Mingo
While Carolina’s new coaching staff didn’t exactly roil the fantasy world in Week 13, they did present the Bucs with an opportunity. What struck me was the rapid change in the WR hierarchy. Adam Thielen was a PPR beast with several double-digit goal games, but it was Mingo who scored 10 goals (6/69) in Week 13. The Bucs’ pass defense is a sieve, but the timing certainly makes them seem like the new guy. The Carolina regime wants to see what they have in the rookie. It makes sense to start developing chemistry between Mingo and Bryce Young now if the two are to be the building blocks of the future franchise. Unfortunately, Young hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in a game since Week 8 and New Orleans has an above-average pass defense. Still, as underdogs, we have to expect that the Panthers will need some big plays to stay in this game, giving Mingo a chance to become a fantasy hero.
Isaiah probably
He’s an obvious choice, but given the Ravens’ bye last week, he’s still worth a mention. Likely to get a top-3 TE matchup with the Rams after posting a 4/40 line on six goals in Week 12. I start him in a league ahead of Evan Engram.
Gardner Minshew
If the QB injuries have finally caught up with you and Minshew is available, I like him a lot this week. In Week 13, both Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce were supported by strong passing from Minshew, who finished the game with 312 yards and two touchdowns. The Bengals are the seventh-best fantasy opponent and give up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. The game is expected to be close, which is further evidence that Minshew is capable of succeeding.
(Top photo: Sam Hodde/Getty Images)