In Ukraine, divisions within the Ukrainian political class, but also between military and political leaders, are beginning to come to light. Relations between President Volodymyr Zelensky and his commander-in-chief Valéri Zalouzhny are said to be tense. Meanwhile, the Russian army continues its attacks on the town of Avdiivka in Donbass and is close to surrounding this industrial town near Donetsk. The Ukrainian armed forces are in a defensive position along almost the entire front. And uncertainties weigh on continued Western support.
Published on: June 12, 2023 – 1:51 p.m. Modified on: June 12, 2023 – 2:05 p.m
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The sacred bond that has existed since the beginning of the war begins to crumble. The public debate, which has been very discreet since February 24, 2022, is regaining momentum at a time when the Ukrainian army’s counteroffensive is stalling. Even though President Zelensky has ruled out organizing elections in the near future, political games have resumed. The contradictions come from both the opposition and those in power. “I no longer look with sadness, but with horror at what is happening in our politics these days. “This is a kind of epidemic of internal conflict that is getting worse,” notes Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the Penta Center.
Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko criticizes the Ukrainian leader
One of the strongest criticisms came from the mayor of Kiev, who is believed to have presidential ambitions. In the German newspaper Der Spiegel, Vitali Klitschko argues that Ukraine is moving towards authoritarianism and can stop being different from Russia, where “everything depends on the whims of one person.”
Late last week, the former president said, Petro Poroshenko, now an opposition lawmaker, was barred from leaving Ukraine to attend a series of meetings, including reportedly with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The Ukrainian security services saw the danger of “instrumentalization by the Russians”. According to them, Moscow intended to take advantage of a meeting between Petro Poroshenko and Viktor Orban, who was accused of “anti-Ukrainian sentiment.” “War fatigue is noticeable and leads to the following questions within society: Who is responsible for the situation?” Why did the counteroffensive fail? “Politicians sensed that there was discontent in society, which led them to increasingly criticize the president,” notes Volodymyr Fesenko.
Also listen: Ukraine: The counteroffensive put to the test
Disagreements between Zelensky and Zaluzhny
The question of responsibility for the failure of the counteroffensive has also reignited opposition between the country’s two most popular men, President Zelensky and General Valery Zalouzhny, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces. Last week, The Economist Citing a senior Ukrainian source, he confided that relations between the two men were “abhorrent.” The online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda devotes an article to their dispute. He says that Volodymyr Zelenskyi, bypassing General Zaluzhny, created parallel lines of communication with the commanders of the ground forces Oleksandr Syrskyi and the air force commander Mykola Oleschuk. The latter would also not have been informed about the government’s decision to dismiss General Viktor Chorenko, the head of the special forces, and would have learned about it from the press.
Rumors have been circulating since spring 2022 about an estrangement between the head of state and the general, but the crisis is said to have worsened since Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin’s visit to Kiev two weeks ago. The presidential administration did not like the senior official’s statements U, where he realized that the counteroffensive had stalled and the war could last years. In an interview with the British tabloid The sunVolodymyr Zelensky warned the senior officer: “With all the respect I have for General Zalouzhny and for all commanders on the battlefield (…), there is only one hierarchy according to the law, and in wartime we cannot even do that. “discuss it.”
Also read: Ukraine: The commander-in-chief of the armies fears that Kiev’s counteroffensive will stall
A risky impeachment
In this area of tension, could the dismissal of the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army be on the agenda? This is undoubtedly not what President Zelensky wants, but it carries political risks. “If he were overthrown, he would become the main alternative to Zelensky,” explains political scientist Volodymyr Fessenko. The military, no longer involved in the political game today, “could then be pushed to enter politics and would be able to bring together the opposition forces.” In this situation, Zelensky would have a real, very powerful competitor.”
According to a poll conducted in November by the Kiev Ratings Group, Volodymyr Zelensky would receive 42% of the vote in the second round of presidential elections, compared to 40% for Valéri Zalouzhny. In the same poll, 82% of respondents said they trust the army chief, while the president received only 72% of the vote.