Climate summits are largely about stories, and COP28 in Dubai is so clear and focused that it is difficult for anyone to pull a rabbit out of a hat to hide failure. The line between success and defeat has been drawn: it is necessary to know whether, for the first time, it will be possible for the almost 200 countries taking part in these negotiations to appeal directly…
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Climate summits are largely about stories, and COP28 in Dubai is so clear and focused that it is difficult for anyone to pull a rabbit out of a hat to hide failure. The line between success and defeat has been drawn: it is a question of knowing whether the almost 200 countries taking part in these negotiations will be able, for the first time, to make a direct demand for a gradual end to the production and use of all fossil fuels The statement should pave the way for the climate plans that nations must submit to the United Nations.
The final leg of this conference, which began on November 30 and is scheduled to end this Tuesday, will reach the live debate on the end of these fuels, which are the main cause of the climate crisis that is already affecting humanity. It has the support of the EU and many other countries that want an ambitious conclusion to the summit, but faces the public and clear rejection of oil nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The possibility of fuels being openly mentioned has raised alarms in these countries and also at OPEC, the organization that brings together the world's largest oil exporters.
Coal, oil and gas are primarily responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, the massive combustion of which has been responsible for global warming since the Industrial Revolution. But for many years the climate negotiations have focused on bullets and not firearms, i.e. gases (for which there are reduction targets) and not the fuels from which they are produced. But at this COP28 the focus is absolutely on the sources of emissions, which is certainly paradoxical, since the person leading the negotiations is Sultan al Jaber, the Minister of Industry of the United Arab Emirates, a country where 30% of the income comes from them come directly from oil and gas. He is also the head of the listed hydrocarbon company ADNOC.
But Al Jaber, under pressure precisely because of this and after the circulation of some of his controversial statements before the summit in which he opposed the end of the use of hydrocarbons, has repeatedly admitted that he believes it is “essential” to move forward gradually reduce or eliminate all fossil fuels. . In the drafts published in recent days, all the options have been retained and only this Monday will the COP28 Presidency present its more or less final proposal to the negotiators after listening to all the points of view. One of the biggest doubts, according to negotiating sources, is which verb will accompany the mention of fossil fuels (if it is retained): eliminate, reduce, replace, displace…
Many of these negotiators looked forward to the final hours of this Sunday with a feeling of “all or nothing,” as explained by the EU delegation, whose members act as a bloc and in which Spain, and in particular Vice President Teresa Ribera, play a key role in presenting the twenty-seven. Bilateral and group meetings between countries took place throughout the day to try to converge positions and find language acceptable to all in the final text. Before bringing all the negotiators together at once, Sultan al Jaber asked them for “flexibility” and recalled that it was the only presidency of a COP that had put fossil fuels on the table to the end, as demanded by the majority of countries. And that is true, as is your country's ability to dialogue with almost everyone involved. “The Emirates can talk to anyone because they have friendly relations with everyone, with Russia, with China, with the EU, with Arabia …,” point out sources in the negotiation. The problem is that decisions at COPs must be made by consensus and not by majorities.
The EU came to this COP28 with a mandate: to meet the demand for a phase-out of fossil fuels, while leaving the door open to carbon capture and storage systems for some industrial activities, another unfinished battle. Although the story is all or nothing, the verbs and adjectives contained in the final texts are crucial, as they provide more or less assistance to the fossil sector, which is genuinely concerned about what impact the outcome of this conference might have on it can leave a back door open. In addition to the EU, other ambitious nations have also joined the same position, such as Chile, Colombia, Norway and the small island states threatened by rising sea levels.
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Understated profile of the largest global emitters
The USA and China, the world's two largest economies and the world's two largest emitters, appear at the summit in significantly less public interest, but without neglecting the negotiations. It must be remembered that the United States is the world's leading oil producer; just like China in the case of coal. But both nations signed a joint statement just days before COP28 that gives clues to their position: They committed to tripling global renewable energy capacity to “accelerate the substitution of coal, oil and gas generation.” Tripling renewable energy is another demand expected at the summit, and many believe that the elimination or reduction of fuels should be called for in this context. That is, we are pushing to replace some energy sources with others.
But neither Saudi Arabia nor OPEC nor other oil countries like Iraq want to hear direct mention of fossil fuels. Saudi Arabia made it publicly clear at the summit plenary that it must be greenhouse gases and not the sources that cause them. Talk about bullets, not guns. The representative of Iraq said the same this Sunday, rejecting any request to reduce or eliminate hydrocarbons. In a quiet but similar position – in its case due to the importance of natural gas – is Russia, whose confrontation with the EU has even led to it blocking the venue of the next summit until now, which is expected to be clarified. at the end of COP28.
References to reducing or eliminating fossil fuels in order to replace them with renewable energy are discussed in the text of the so-called balance sheet of the Paris Agreement. This pact, signed in 2015, sets the goal of warming not exceeding 2 degrees Celsius and, if possible, 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve this, countries must submit to the United Nations voluntary emission reduction plans (the sources that produce them are not mentioned, so making this explicit now at this COP28 would be an important step) that lead to this goal . But these plans would now lead to a temperature increase of between 2.1 and 2.8 degrees, always compared to pre-industrial levels. That is well known, but the stock that needs to be taken at this COP28 is also expected to provide guidance for the next set of national plans that countries will have to present in 2025. The programs must now pave the way for fossil fuel abandonment and decision pave the way for renewable energies.
“Let us make the decision here in Dubai to phase out all fossil fuels by mid-century, with action starting now.” If we do that, the UAE and COP28 will be crowned as the country and people, that have mitigated climate wars, avoided disasters and saved countless lives,” said Shady Khalil, member of the Greenpeace organization in the Middle East, this Sunday. and North Africa,
But a summit is a multi-track circus. The central theme is the balance sheet, but there are also other texts that discuss adaptation (i.e. how countries can anticipate the negative impacts of climate change). It was expected that nothing significant would come from this summit in this area, but according to negotiators from several countries, Saudi Arabia maintains a blocking stance, which they suspect it will use as a bargaining chip in negotiations over the mention of fossil fuels .
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