The West promised to support and support Ukraine for as long as necessary. This statement has become a motto with which almost every leader sprinkles his speeches. But as Russia's full-scale invasion enters its 700th day, that slogan is in danger of losing its relevance. The economic, diplomatic and military support of the USA and the EU is showing signs of wear and tear. Washington is having serious problems keeping its funding promises and the Union, which is also debating Kiev's future accession, is in intensive negotiations to overcome Hungary's blockade and implement a special package of 50 billion euros to keep the country afloat to keep. Political struggles in the West and slow military production capacity are taking their toll on support for Kiev. And the potential cracks in unity are already ammunition for the Kremlin, which has intensified its disinformation and propaganda operations about Western fatigue and is awaiting any sign of deterioration to talk about US and EU political failures.
After the US Senate's refusal to approve $60 billion (around 55.7 billion euros) in financial support for Ukraine, which some Republicans want to make conditional on tough immigration measures, fears are growing around the Kiev debate as the election campaign approaches the presidential election begins next year. And that will be even more true if the Republican Donald Trump, who has not exactly stood out for his poor relationship with Russian head of state Vladimir Putin, returns to the White House.
With this surge in the background, this week is crucial for Ukraine's future. The heads of state and government will meet on Thursday for a summit where this new economic package will be negotiated as a long-term commitment to the invaded country and will also decide whether to start talks – or not for Ukraine to join the EU.
All at a crucial moment when Kiev is facing its own political problems, with its citizens increasingly exhausted and the counteroffensive stalling, with little progress being made against a Russian company in its defenses, all in the face of slow Western supply capacity According to several intelligence reports, the country has intensified its military production capacities despite the economic situation and Western sanctions. “The Union has claimed that Ukraine is fighting for European values,” comments a senior European diplomat. “And he doesn't realize what impact it would have on Europe in every way if the war were lost. “The sense of urgency from the first months of the invasion has evaporated,” he adds.
Ukraine has become a hostage to partisan fighting in the United States, says Orysia Lutsevych, director of the Ukraine Forum at the Chatham House think tank. Also from the European elections in June. Kiev is a key bargaining chip in the blackmail of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is vetoing Ukraine's start of accession negotiations to the EU while trying to get Brussels to release funds blocked over its violations of the rule of law. At the same time, he is fueling his nationalist discourse at home with slanders about the alleged effects of sanctions against Russia and military support for Kiev.
Lutsevych believes that Orbán's opposition – which leaders such as Spain's Pedro Sánchez, France's Emmanuel Macron and Estonia's Kaja Kallas are trying to convince with an intensive diplomatic offensive – is not just transactional in nature this time. “It has a lot to do with the meeting he had with Putin in China,” says the expert on the phone, who believes that Orbán is trying to crack the unity of the EU and give Russia material for its campaigns to supposedly abandon Ukraine . , which serve to “undermine the spirit of resistance of Ukrainians” and create doubts in the West, which is suffering from its own problems and the effects of the war.
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An intelligence officer who works on disinformation and propaganda issues said such reports have increased in recent months. “Ukraine will become a black hole, absorbing more and more resources and people,” Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) chief Sergei Naryshkin said this week. A similar message to Orbán.
Talks about Ukraine joining the community club – which the majority of member states want to launch, as recommended by the European Commission – could take years. They are not the lifeline that economic aid and military support are. But the prospect of joining the Union represents a political and moral boost for Ukraine, an anchor, a more concrete guarantee than the slogan that promises to maintain support “as long as necessary.”
Hyperinflation risk
Kiev is threatened by hyperinflation and urgently needs Western economic support. But as Western lawmakers and politicians have engaged in the debate over aid to the invaded country, their economic and military aid to Ukraine has reached historic lows this fall, according to an analysis by the Kiel Institute. According to the German Center, financial aid fell dramatically between August and October 2023 (90% compared to the same period last year) to 2.11 billion euros, the lowest amount since January 2022. Meanwhile, several surveys in the US and the EU show that the Western citizens' support for Ukraine has not declined and that a majority remains in favor of sending support to Kiev.
A resident of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region walks between bombed buildings on October 17.STRINGER (Portal)
Borja Lasheras, an expert in international politics who advises the EU external action service in Ukraine, believes that the risk of a collapse of fundamental elements of Western support policies for Kiev is explained by the advancement of the policies of certain extremist minorities. “This is clearly the case in the United States, where there is an influential minority, representing about 30% of the most extremist Republican bases, which manages to undermine support policies that still enjoy the support of the majority and which have no inhibitions “To represent them.” Precedents first. “Short-term people risk giving Putin more chances,” he says on the phone from Ukraine.
“In the case of Europe, there are nuances, because there is a majority of member states that, due to their political importance and as a sign of deterrence to Putin, are in favor of starting accession negotiations and in favor of the 50 billion package that provides clarity on financial stability Of Ukraine; but there is one state, Hungary and some others behind it [Austria, por ejemplo quiere vincular la apertura de negociaciones con Ucrania con las de Bosnia, lo que lastra para muchos la decisión]that stop these almost unanimous initiatives and show the dysfunctionality of our rules,” says Lasheras.
Kiev also faces other problems, such as the blockade of products and transport at its borders with Poland, which is just a foretaste of what could come as accession negotiations begin and Kiev begins to negotiate with its neighbors for European subsidies compete. Still, a majority of European citizens believe that enlargement needs to be accelerated in the face of the large-scale invasion, according to a special Eurobarometer published last week ahead of the European Parliament elections in June next year, which predicts the addition of new members be significant debate.
Some Ukrainian soldiers, last Thursday on the Avdiivka front.Libkos (Getty Images)
At the front, where the lack of ammunition has become a chronic problem despite promises of supplies (such as a million rounds of EU artillery), this debate over support is a matter of life and death. “It’s the same thing we’ve been repeating for a year; “We have enough not to bleed to death, but not to move forward,” complained the head of a brigade fighting in the southeast, one of the focal points of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, in coded messages. The problem, he summarizes, is that everything arrives “by drip” when you have to receive long-range missiles. Added to this is the lack of soldiers, a growing problem. The Ukraine War is a combination of 20th century battles and 21st century elements, for which Kiev is trying to build its own capabilities with the support of its allies, which would truly be a turning point.
Because Ukraine has already entered the second winter of a large-scale war, crowned by attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure. And the conflict will drag on, warned NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in September, who ventured a few days ago that we must be prepared for bad news from the front. Several intelligence reports claim that Russia could make significant territorial advances without new Western support.
This week's talks on Ukraine in Brussels are crucial not only for the invaded country, but also for the EU, where the search for a plan is already underway as the debate on the budget review and the 50 billion package for Ukraine continues B begins. to ensure this livelihood at least through bilateral plans. But although support for Kiev would be partially saved, a major rift would form in the union. The first substantial and visible attack since the Russian invasion began on February 24, 2022, which blew up Europe's security architecture. “If Ukraine receives a double rejection of funds and accession, it would be shameful. “It will be a monumental failure and will weaken the EU, which is not the geopolitical union it claims to be,” says Lutsevych, who warns: “Each of the two rejections will also be a sign for Putin that the political future of Ukraine is lost.” is not decided. that it remains in limbo. And it will serve them well in their narrative to the global south that autocracies can control policies and resources while the EU is trapped in its own dysfunction.”
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