The Dodgers and Rays are negotiating a trade that would bring the right-hander into action Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles in exchange for Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca, as first reported by Jack Azoulay-Haron of MLB Nerds and Bruce Kuntz of Dodgers Digest. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears the same thingand warned that the deal was not yet finalized and changes to the framework were still possible.
The 30-year-old Glasnow was one of the most rumored trade candidates of the offseason, both due to his hefty $25 million salary for the upcoming season and his proximity to free agency. He is entering the final year of his contract and will hit the open market next winter. MLBTR ranked Glasnow fifth on our early offseason list of the game's top 25 trade candidates.
Glasnow is a natural target for the deep-pocketed Dodgers, who have a strong need to start pitching and who aren't eyeing the Tampa Bay star's salary. Currently the rotation in Los Angeles consists of Pepiot, Walker Buhler, Bobby Miller And Emmet Sheehan, with fifth place in the air. (Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Grove And Gavin Stone are among the internal options.) Buehler will be on an innings count in his first full season after Tommy John surgery (the second TJS of his career). None of Pepiot, Miller or Sheehan have made more than 22 big league starts.
The Dodgers' rotation has been plagued by injuries over the past calendar year. Longtime star and current free agent Clayton Kershaw He may re-sign with the club, but he had to undergo shoulder surgery after the 2023 season and will be out at least until mid-summer – if not longer. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery in August. Dustin May underwent Tommy John revision and flexion surgery shortly after the All-Star break.
While Glasnow is far from a model of endurance, when healthy he is undoubtedly a top player. Last year's 120 innings were actually a career high for the 6-foot-2 right-hander, and the 2023 season was only his second in which he even reached 100 frames at the MLB level. Glasnow did make a slew of starts in the shortened 2020 season, but his 21 trips to the mound last year were still a career high. He has spent significant time on the injured list in his big league career, including due to Tommy John surgery, a separate forearm strain and a severe oblique strain.
Originally selected in the fifth round by the Pirates, Glasnow has long been a top prospect in Pittsburgh. But he never quite managed to get going for the Bucs Austin Meadows And Shane Baz in the one-sided trade that was sent Chris Archer from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh. Like so many other pitchers, Glasnow made his breakthrough as part of the Rays' pitching development and analysis program. In parts of six seasons with Tampa Bay, he posted a 3.20 ERA while striking out a whopping 34.1% of his opponents, with a decent 7.8% walk rate. He has typically posted above-average ground ball rates and posted the best ground ball rate of his career last season at 51.2%.
Margot can also become a free agent after the 2024 season — although the Rays (or an acquiring team) also hold a $12 million club option with a $2 million buyout for the 2025 season. He is expected to make $10 million in 2024, bringing the total remaining guarantee on his deal to $12 million.
The .264/.310/.376 batting line that the 29-year-old Margot posted in 336 plate appearances in 2023 was about seven percent below average in terms of wRC+ (93), but was also exactly the same as the larger .264/. .317/.375 performance during parts of four seasons with the Rays. In general, Margot's slightly subpar offense was an acceptable trade-off for his sensational defense and solid value on the basepaths.
However, that wasn't necessarily the case in 2023. Margot missed most of the 2022 season due to a significant patellar tendon strain in his right knee, and his defensive performances in 2023 approached average. Statcast points out that both Margot's range in the outfield and her overall sprint speed decreased in 2023, which isn't particularly surprising for a player returning from a serious knee injury in his first season. If he gets closer to his pre-injury form he could return to his status as an all-round plus player, but there is no certainty that will happen.
A healthy Margot would be a great fit on the Dodgers roster. Los Angeles has re-signed Jason Heyward spend most of their time in right field – Mookie Betts has already been announced as their primary second baseman for next year – but Heyward will be strictly in the mix. Margot's right-handed bat has posted a career .281/.341/.420 batting average against lefties. He fits well in the field, and if his defense can get back to previous levels, the Dodgers probably feel they wouldn't lose much defensive value by swapping Heyward for left-handed pitcher Margot. Margot could also be a late-game defensive replacement Chris Taylor in left field, and he's good insurance in center field, should James Outman suffer an injury at any time.
As for the players reportedly being targeted by Tampa Bay, Pepiot is exactly what the Rays typically covet: an MLB-ready player with five seasons under club control who can jump straight into the roster rather than a high-profile one Player traded elsewhere. The 26-year-old right-hander has started 10 games and made seven relief appearances for the Dodgers since making his MLB debut in 2022, posting a sharp 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 innings — although with some other concerning numbers.
Pepiot's 25.1% strikeout rate is better than average, but his 10% walk rate is also above league average and he has been fairly prone to home runs (1.49 HR/9). He was lucky that most of those long balls came with the bases empty, but being an extreme flyball pitcher who is prone to home runs inherently carries some risk. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.76) and SIERA (4.15) are more pessimistic than Pepiot's more rudimentary earned run average.
Pepiot works with a three-pitch mix — fastball, changeup, slider — sitting at 94 mph with his heater and neutralizing lefties with a plus changeup. His slider has performed well in the major leagues so far, but scouting reports from his time as a prospect have found that performance to be slightly below average, giving him the feel of being a two-pitch right-hander with one third solid performance is missing. Pepiot doesn't have the same durability concerns as Glasnow, as he threw 128 1/3 innings in 2022 and never hit the IL with a serious arm injury. However, like Glasnow, he missed several months into the 2023 season due to a significant oblique injury.
Baseball America ranked Pepiot as the No. 55 prospect in the game in early 2023, noting that he has improved this once subpar slider, but at the expense of the effectiveness of his changeup. Pepiot's below-average command also lends itself to deep counts and long innings, with BA's scouting report noting that he often struggles to pitch past the fifth inning. This isn't a big problem for either the Rays or the Dodgers; Both clubs typically have deep bullpens and don't shy away from five-and-dive starters who only face a lineup twice.
Pepiot is controllable for another five years and won't be eligible until the 2025-26 offseason, which certainly increases his appeal to the Rays. Trading him for Glasnow is likely a step backwards in terms of quality per inning, but Pepiot would give them an option in 2025 and beyond if the Rays do so Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen And Shane McClanahan all are returning from major arm surgeries.
At the same time, trading Glasnow for a league-minimum starter (and potentially giving up some or all of Margot's remaining money) would give the Rays the financial breathing room they need to add (or at a mid-level salary) a free-agent starter act). ) for the upcoming 2024 season. As it stands, the Rays have Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civaleformer top candidate Taj Bradley (who struggled through his rookie appearance in 2023) and went from reliever to starter Zack Littell in the projected rotation.
In all of this, it should not be forgotten that the 25-year-old Deluca himself put in a solid debut performance. He's controllable for another six seasons and would give the Rays a right-handed hitter who can man all three outfield spots, similar to the more established Margot. Deluca only had 45 plate appearances in his MLB debut last season, but posted a respectable .262/.311/.429 batting line during that time. He also posted a combined .294/.390/.566 slash line between Double-A and Triple-A.
It's gaudy production, although scouting reports at Baseball America and FanGraphs indicate the former switch-hitter is still working on adapting to right-on-right scenarios and currently feels more like a platoon option. FanGraphs' Eric Longenhagen rates Deluca as a below-average centerfielder but a solid corner option. Deluca is a former baseball and track star with excellent athleticism who could excel as a matchup-based option at least in all three outfield spots, a skill the Rays have used with great regularity in the past. He also has two minor league option years remaining, which only increases his appeal.
Although it appears there are still some hurdles to overcome, there is some logic to the deal for both sides. The Dodgers would trade a pair of controllable but unproven players for a high-end rotation upgrade and an established right-handed platoon partner for Heyward for a year or two – one who can probably handle center field better than someone's young outfielder they would separate. Glasnow is an easy offer candidate to qualify for next winter, so LA could receive modest compensation in the event of his departure. He's also from the Los Angeles area and has signed a contract extension in the past, so the chance of a second multi-year deal to expand control seems realistic.
The Rays, meanwhile, would convert two short-term assets into immediate MLB help that can be controlled through 2028-29, freeing up money for short-term help in 2024 and potentially adding Pepiot to a rotation group in 2025 that includes McClanahan and Baz include , Eflin, Civale and Bradley. It's the kind of trade both teams have often been willing to make – usually with good success – which helps both achieve their status as perennial contenders (albeit through entirely different methods).