No end has been decided, just the abandonment of fossil fuels. COP28 successes and commitments in detail.
The UN climate conference in Dubai ended with a compromise on a final document in which the abandonment of fossil energy sources, coal, oil and gas, is mentioned for the first time. The phase-out previously demanded by more than 100 countries is out of the question.
What exactly does COP28's call for a global transition away from fossil fuels mean?
The final document literally speaks of a “fair, orderly and balanced transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems” to achieve net-zero consumption in line with scientific evidence by 2050 and a global reduction in methane emissions by 2030. It is the first resolution of a UN climate conference that – although formulated in very general terms – aims to end fossil fuels and thus marks the end of the oil era.
How should implementation occur?
The 21-page text calls for tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and doubling energy efficiency over the same period. (Energy efficiency describes the relationship between the benefit and energy use. The less energy it takes to produce it, the more energy efficient the product will be.) The 2015 Paris Climate Protection Agreement's commitment to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5 degrees, it will be repeated. The text also contains references to “transition energies”. These can also be fossil in nature, while also using controversial CO2 capture and storage technologies. During the conference, a tripling of nuclear energy was also predicted. The form of implementation is up to the states. This means: “All these points must be translated into national policies that come into force before 2030. Otherwise, the 1.5 degree limit cannot be respected, at least not without exceeding it for a long time”, says Niklas Höhne , head of the New Climate Institute in Cologne.
How should the COP28 decision be evaluated?
Although the EU, the US and China have understood the urgency of climate protection and are implementing it slowly but surely, oil and gas exporting countries want to preserve their sources of income for as long as possible. In the middle are developing countries, which on the one hand already clearly feel the effects of global warming and, on the other hand, do not have the means to adapt to the effects and quickly implement the progressive elimination of fossil fuels. As everyone had to agree on the final work, it was necessary to find an essay that satisfied all three groups. “The document is a good political commitment that each country can interpret as it can and wishes, and that makes individual implementation steps possible. In times of multiple crises, where different regions face different problems, this is an important geopolitical signal,” says climate researcher Daniel Huppmann from the Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, near Vienna.
How realistic is it for all countries to participate in climate protection from now on?
China has shown that it is entirely possible to triple renewable energy capacity in the space of six years: just three years ago, coal-fired power covered around half of demand in that country, but, according to Chinese data, there is currently twice as much of solar energy than coal energy. However, new coal-fired power plants are still being approved in China, especially in provinces where switching to renewable energy is difficult. In any case, the explicit goals of the COP28 resolution give the EU, the US and China the support to continue taking national climate protection measures and not be left alone.
What gaps are there?
Given that the document does not indicate exactly what the “fair, orderly and balanced transition” from fossil to renewable energies should be like, it opens the door to “illusory solutions such as carbon storage or nuclear energy”, says Jasmin Duregger, an expert at Greenpeace. Industries struggling to transition away from fossil fuels, which still account for about 80% of the world's energy supply, could opt for controversial and untested carbon capture and storage.
What other criticisms are there?
“The COP28 climate conference was pure greenwashing,” says energy expert Claudia Kemfert, from the German Institute for Economic Research. Only a commitment to immediately eliminate fossil fuels could have led to the achievement of climate objectives. The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) is more positive. At the climate conference it was also possible to get oil and gas countries to agree to abandon fossil fuels. “This was the first time that the core problem of the climate crisis was identified, after decades of dancing around it on the international stage. This is an extremely important signal against the development of new sources of oil and gas”, says Viviane Raddatz, climate manager at WWF Germany.
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Critics say Dubai's resolutions don't go far enough. © Photo credit: THOMAS MUKOYA / Portal / picturedesk.com
Was the creation of the Loss and Damage Fund a success?
At the beginning of the conference, the new loss and damage fund was created and initial deposits worth US$792 million were announced. “This early decision ensured a successful start. “Taking into account the enormous damage caused by the climate crisis in the form of storms, floods or droughts in many developing countries this year, the creation of this fund is also an important step”, says Anke Herold, General Director of Öko- Institute in Berlin. However, the fund is underfunded. Experts assume that several billions will be needed to cushion the damage.
Island states are particularly affected by climate change. How are they helped?
Island states that are particularly threatened by rising sea levels feel ignored. A representative from the Pacific nation of Samoa told the plenary session in Dubai that the group of island states had yet to coordinate and was not in the room in time to take a position. “We cannot return to our islands with the message that this process has betrayed us,” said Samoa’s representative. “The course correction we need has not been achieved.”
What role does Austria play in negotiations at the UN climate conferences?
As an EU state, Austria is involved in the negotiations. Some Austrian representatives hold important positions in the EU when it comes to mediating between different interests. The federal government's line is well known: the Minister of Climate Protection, Leonore Gewessler, of the Greens, has taken up the cause of expanding renewable energy. Finance Minister Magnus Brunner (ÖVP), who was also in Dubai, initiated a national “Carbon Management Strategy”. The focus of participation at COP28 was the ministerial meeting of the “Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action”, where Brunner was responsible for promoting the “Green Budget” in Austria. At the same time, the national delegation was part of the EU negotiating team on a new global climate finance target from 2025. “The world is saying goodbye to fossil energy. This is a big step forward,” said Climate Protection Minister Gewessler after the decision.
Where will the next world climate summit take place?
In 2024, the UN climate conference COP29 will take place in Azerbaijan. Similar to this year's host Dubai, this location also finances its economy largely from oil and gas revenues. According to data from the International Trade Administration (US), revenues from oil and gas production represent almost half of Azerbaijan's GDP and almost 92 percent of the country's export earnings. The location was decided unanimously.