MEXICO CITY –
Is there a threat of armed conflict in the northern hinterland of South America?
The prospect of a military confrontation has emerged in recent weeks as Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has threatened to annex a swath of resource-rich land in neighboring Guyana. The vast area has been the subject of dispute for more than a century.
Maduro's claims to the region – which Venezuelans call Guayana Esequiba and Guyanese Essequibo – come as he faces unpopularity at home and growing international pressure to hold clean elections next year.
This month, Maduro put Guyana's territorial claims to a vote in a national referendum – an attempt to capitalize on nationalist sentiment in a country where generations of schoolchildren have been taught that the disputed territory is an integral part of Venezuela.
The conflict has alarmed the United Nations, the United States, Brazil and other nations. And now Maduro and Guyana's President Mohamed Irfaan Ali are meeting on Thursday in the Caribbean island nation of St. Vincent and the Grenadines. All sides are committed to a peaceful solution.
Here are the details:
What is the background of the dispute?
Venezuela is home to some of the largest oil reserves in the world. But the once-robust economy has collapsed and millions of impoverished Venezuelans have emigrated, especially since mass protests in 2017 against the rule of socialist Maduro, a protégé of former President Hugo Chávez and an ardent opponent of the United States.
Maduro blames his country's woes on U.S. sanctions that have helped cripple Venezuela's oil sector. Washington calls Maduro an authoritarian dictator whose mismanagement has ruined Venezuela's economy and damaged the country's oil and gas production infrastructure – leaving many of the country's 30.5 million residents miserable.
In Caracas, a boy rides a motorcycle in front of a mural of the Venezuelan map, which also depicts the Essequibo region of Guyana.
(Matias Delacroix/Associated Press)
Guyana, a staunch U.S. ally, is a former Dutch and British colony that is home to a small but extremely diverse population of 800,000 people – including descendants of African slaves and indentured laborers from the Asian subcontinent, indigenous peoples and settlers from Europe and elsewhere. It is the only country on the continent where English is the official language.
Guyana is perhaps best known in the United States as the site of the 1978 murder and suicide of more than 900 people linked to the California-based Peoples Temple cult and its maverick leader Jim Jones.
Guyana's economy has long been characterized by relatively small-scale agriculture, fishing, logging and mining. But the once-quiet economy has surged since the discovery of huge offshore oil deposits in 2015.
What is Essequibo?
The sprawling strip of jungle, savanna and coastline known as Essequibo – after the Essequibo River that forms its eastern border – accounts for two-thirds of Guyana's land area. At 61,000 square miles, it is slightly smaller than Florida.
The border dispute with Venezuela dates back to the early 19th century and British Guiana, as Guyana was known before independence. An international arbitration ruling in 1899 confirmed that Essequibo was part of British Guiana, but Venezuela has long claimed the process was rigged and its rule over Essequibo dates back centuries to Spanish colonial times. Guyana gained its independence in 1966.
The Essequibo area, rich in timber and minerals, is now helping to transform Guyana with the recent oil boom.
In 2018, with the offshore drilling wave already in full swing, Guyana sought an international imprimatur for control of Essequibo and took its case to the International Court of Justice (sometimes called the World Court), the United Nations' highest judicial body. Last April, the court rejected procedural objections from Caracas, paving the way for judges to hear arguments from both sides.
What steps has Venezuela taken?
The World Court's ruling stung Venezuelan officials who feared the body would ultimately declare Essequibo part of Guyana – although a final decision is likely years away.
Maduro was left with “a fireball in his hands,” said Jesús Seguías, an independent political analyst in Caracas.
It would be humiliating to be on the verge of losing Essequibo for a president who is already on shaky electoral ground, Seguías said.
But Maduro, a survivor of the Trump administration's “maximum pressure” campaign to oust him from office, hit back. He called a nationwide referendum on the plan to incorporate Essequibo into Venezuela and deny jurisdiction to the World Court.
On December 1, the International Court of Justice ordered Venezuela not to take any action to change the status quo regarding Guyana's control of Essequibo. But it rejected Guyana's attempt to ban the referendum.
The Essequibo River flows in Guyana. Venezuela wants to annex Guyana's oil and mineral-rich Essequibo region.
(Juan Pablo Arraez/Associated Press)
Many analysts viewed Maduro's moves as a ploy ahead of next year's elections.
“This is really about Venezuelan domestic politics,” said Geoff Ramsey, senior analyst at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank. “Maduro is trying to offset declines in popularity by stoking nationalism.”
The Venezuelan government said more than 95% of voters approved the referendum. But images of sparsely attended polling stations led many to question the official account that 10 million people had cast their votes.
Among the voters was Carlos Herrera, 60, a plumber from Caracas, who agreed that Essequibo was part of Venezuela – but said the matter should be resolved peacefully. “Maduro will do everything he can to avoid facing the real problems of the country,” Herrera said. “Poverty is our main problem. You don’t win wars with hunger.”
After the vote, Maduro unveiled a comprehensive blueprint for a new Venezuelan state of Essequibo, ordered Venezuela's state-owned energy and minerals companies to begin preparations for work there and began the process of helping the region's 125,000, mostly English-speaking residents to grant Venezuelan citizenship. He presented a multicolored map depicting the disputed territory within Venezuela's borders.
Venezuela sent a military contingent to the Atlantic coast near the disputed area and appointed a major general as interim authority for the area.
Although Maduro gave companies working in Essequibo three months to leave the country, Exxon Mobil said on its Guyana Facebook page on Tuesday: “We are not going anywhere.”
How did Guyana respond?
Guyana's leadership has denounced what it calls an illegal land grab that threatens regional stability. President Ali described Venezuela as a “lawless state” and stressed that his country would seek outside help to prevent further provocations from Caracas.
“If Venezuela continues its reckless and adventurous behavior, the region must respond,” Ali told the Associated Press.
How have other countries reacted?
US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken reiterated Washington's position that Guyana has full sovereignty over Essequibo. The U.S. military's Southern Command said it would conduct air operations in collaboration with Guyana's military – a move Caracas condemned as a “provocation.”
Brazil, which borders Venezuela and Guyana to the north, said it would increase its military presence along its northern borders.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has tried to broker a solution, said: “What we don't want here in South America is war.”
Some observers suspect Maduro is looking for an excuse to declare a national emergency and cancel next year's elections.
Is military intervention by Venezuela a realistic possibility?
Most observers consider a military strike by Venezuela to be unlikely. Even though the more than 100,000 soldiers far outnumber Guyana's meager defenses, the logistical hurdles are considerable: A full-scale ground invasion is not practical, experts say, because much of the Essequibo border with Venezuela consists of almost impenetrable rainforest and swamps. This leaves the slight possibility of an air or sea attack.
A Venezuelan attack could trigger an armed response from Guyana's allies. It would also likely further isolate Venezuela if Caracas agrees to electoral reforms and cooperates with Washington on immigration strategy in an almost desperate attempt to persuade the White House to ease sanctions. The oil boom next door in Guyana has highlighted how much Venezuela needs outside expertise and investment to revitalize its own oil industry.
“Neither Venezuela nor Guyana wants this conflict to escalate into a full-blown conflict,” Ramsey said. “This is much more about saber rattling than a real threat.”
What's next?
There is little expectation that Thursday's meeting between Maduro and Ali will produce anything close to a resolution, despite so much bad blood and tortured history.
Even after the announcement of the bilateral meeting, Ali again stated that his country's land borders were not up for discussion. And Caracas reaffirmed its “indisputable sovereign rights” over Essequibo.
“It is very unlikely that Venezuela or Guyana will reach a substantive agreement,” Ramsey said. “But what we will probably see is a de-escalation of rhetoric.”
McDonnell reported from Mexico City and special correspondent Mogollón from Caracas.