Article to read by US diplomat John Bolton in the Daily Telegraph. “Last week the Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro took provocative steps to forcibly annex Essequibo, a region that includes nearly three-quarters of neighboring Guyana. The “experts” were quick to downplay the possibility of hostility, but they may have spoken too soon. Maduro's pretext is a 19th-century dispute, but the real trigger is the ongoing collapse of his regime, financially crippled by decades of mismanagement of the country's vast oil reserves; massive corruption in the regime; and suppression of domestic political opposition.
If he huge oil fields Discovered in 2015, Guyana's offshore area remains under development Venezuela Funds for renewing the oil industry are falling to almost zero. Why bother with a failed state when Guyana, hoping for foreign investment, offers an easy alternative? Even the electoral vulnerability of Joe Biden for 2024 it is fundamental.
Just a few months ago, Maduro convinced Biden to lift the economic sanctions that were subsequently imposed Maduro stole the presidential election 2018 in Venezuela. In his desperate attempt to lower gasoline prices in the United States, Biden has effectively betrayed Venezuela's democratic opposition. Maduro's promise to hold free and fair elections lasted for a few weeks and disappeared when sanctions were lifted. This shows that only “crazy dogs” (Putin, Iran, Nicaragua) and the Biden administration are negotiating with him.
Fear of Biden That international crises will drive up oil prices and the perception that wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are engulfing Washington reinforce Maduro's conclusion that this may now be the case An ideal time to strike. The US's insufficient response so far makes it clear that there is a lack of sufficient deterrence to stop even Venezuela's ailing military from using force against the much militarily weaker Guyana.” Today there is a meeting between Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali in St. Vincent and the Grenadines planned.
Paolo Manzo, December 14, 2023
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