Friday briefing: What we learned from Vladimir Putin's surreal televised press conference – The Guardian

First edition

Fri Dec 15, 2023 06.48 GMT

Good morning There are no problems in Russia – and even if there were, Vladimir Putin would be the only man who can solve them. That was the overwhelming message from Putin's four-hour press conference yesterday, marking the first time since the invasion of Ukraine of the traditionally annual event.

If the tenor of pre-screened questions from the Russian media and public was overwhelmingly in favor of the “special military operation,” that is hardly surprising. But the fact that the event happened at all is an indication that Putin feels stronger and more secure than at any time since the war began. On the war, the economy and his prospects for another six-year term, Putin's confidence was unmistakable – and a sign of his growing belief that he can outlast Ukraine's Western allies. That feeling may have been reinforced this morning when his Hungarian ally Viktor Orban blocked £43 billion in new EU aid to Ukraine just hours after agreeing to start talks on EU accession.

Today's newsletter, with the Guardian's Russia correspondent Andrew Roth, will take you through it and will take well under four hours to complete. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

In detail: “The event tended towards Turbo-Patriot.” Page'

A destroyed tank in a field in the village of Kamenka, Kharkiv Region. Photo: Ihor Tkachov/AFP/Getty Images

For years, Vladimir Putin has hosted an annual conference call called “Direct Line,” as well as a very long press conference with pre-approved questions from national and international media. Last year both events were canceled due to repeated setbacks in Ukraine; this year they returned as a combined set piece.

The program, broadcast live on all major Russian television channels, was titled “Results of the Year with Vladimir Putin.” The vast majority of the 600 journalists present came from Russian media. (One of the dozen international reporters in attendance asked about two U.S. prisoners, journalist Evan Gershkovich and company executive Paul Whelan, prompting Putin to say that a deal for their release was still possible.)

Questions were beamed from soldiers at the front, one of a man in military clothing surrounded by farm animalsand an AI avatar of Putin himself; Nonetheless, Andrew Roth said, “It certainly wasn't the craziest or wildest thing ever. “It was actually largely unremarkable, and I think that's the point – to project normalcy.”

***

The war | “There will be peace if we achieve our goals”

To get a sense of how clearly the event evoked the justice of the Russian cause in Ukraine, Consider a post highlighted by Max Seddon of the FTfrom a group from the Russian-occupied city of Luhansk: “We came here without questions because we don’t have any!” We just wanted to say thank you for making Luhansk a part of the Russian Federation!”

In general, the event focused on discussion about the war, particularly questions from the public. More important than the praise from Luhansk was Putin's answer to the question of how the war could end. “There will be peace if we achieve our goals,” he said. “They haven't changed. Denazification of Ukraine, demilitarization of Ukraine.”

But, as Andrew pointed out, they have changed. “This language comes from the most bullish period at the beginning of the war. When things didn't go well, the Russians backed off and suggested they might be willing to talk. Using these phrases now felt like a barometer of trust.”

There was one area where objections were allowed to creep in: several soldiers and their families asked about benefits for those who fought in Ukraine. “This is a way to take some of the pressure off – to address something that feels like an issue without giving the microphone to someone who can cause harm,” Andrew said. “In Russia there is an old idea of ​​good tsars and bad boyars [noblemen] – Our problems are due to the aristocracy, but the Tsar is on our side. It strengthens his cult of personality. But they are limited to solvable things.”

The only flaw in the narrative: the questions asked and projected on the walls of the studio were not as thoroughly examined as the questions posed to Putin. One asked: “When will the war end?” When will there be peace in heaven? When will the peace talks start?”

***

The economy | Boosted by military spending behind a confident tone

“He was comfortable talking about the economy,” Andrew said. “He likes to show that he knows what’s going on, right down to the price of eggs [which he apologised to a pensioner about]. Western sanctions are blamed for all problems. And overall, the injection of money is so large that the economy is more at risk of overheating than collapsing.”

Putin said that the stable growth of the Russian economy was guaranteed despite high inflation. The IMF says the level of military spending – now estimated at three times the amount at the start of the war – has strengthened the Russian economy in the short term, with GDP expected to grow by 2.2% this year. Unemployment is also low at 3%. But the IMF also said the longer-term picture was “bleak.” And the fruits of that growth may not be obvious to the average citizen, as investment in schools, hospitals and other essentials stagnates while military spending rises to 40% of the national budget.

All of this suggests that the Russian economy, which according to the IMF was “approaching Western European GDP levels” before the war began, is in a much worse situation than it would otherwise have been. But it also shows that the West's sanctions have not had the catastrophic impact that would force Putin to change course – and, paradoxically, that the biggest shock to the Russian economy could come when the war ends and military spending is scaled back. For now, Putin can continue to boast about the “stability of the financial and economic system,” despite Western attempts to undermine it.

***

Domestic popularity | “Turbo patriots” and an indifferent majority

Russian President Vladimir Putin answers questions during his annual press conference with Russian federal, regional and foreign media at the Gostiny Dvor forum hall in Moscow, Russia. Photo: Alexander Kozakov/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN POOL/EPA

In some ways, Putin's domestic popularity is a cakewalk: in a repressive political climate in which opponents are jailed or exiled and bad news is kept off television, his poll numbers are likely to rise far above their “natural” levels.

On the other hand, polling always “obtains information not about people’s innermost thoughts, but about their public attitudes,” wrote Denis Volkov of the respected independent polling institute Levada Center in April. And while polls in Russia are a deeply imperfect measure, the same Levada Center polls that showed a significant decline in his popularity after the war began now show an approval rating of 85%. Support for the war itself has also increased since the early days of the invasion.

Volkov divides the Russian public into “turbo-patriots” who “seriously and aggressively support Putin” and a larger group in a state of “scholarly indifference” who nevertheless view the president as a legitimate leader.

“The event tended towards Turbo-Patriot Page,” Andrew said. “But there were also completely ordinary questions, such as a Muscovite's complaint about the price of an unfinished toll road from Moscow to Kazan.” Putin promised to check this.

***

A new term | The election guarantees the position until 2030

One of the main purposes of yesterday's event was to set the tone for next year's presidential election. “The big question was whether he [would] Focus on the war and rally behind the flag, or try to normalize life,” Andrew said. “There was a bit for both sides and a sense that this wasn’t just about the military, but about a patriotic ethos for society as a whole.”

The election, which will bring Putin into his fifth term and keep him in power until at least 2030, will be neither free nor fair: none of the candidates running against him are real rivals, and anything less would be a landslide victory astonishing.

Overall, Andrew said, “what struck him was how calm he was. He's usually a little more combative at these appearances: at some point in four hours of questions, something will upset him. But people viewed this more as a performance to show that things are under control.”

What else we read

Massengo Djizlan, a soldier with the 25th Assault Battalion, cleans a machine gun at their base near Avdiivka. Photo: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian

• Luke Harding's dispatch from near town Avdiivka, which has been at the forefront of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine for nearly a decade, is a chilling portrait of Vladimir Putin's nihilistic drive for victory. “Initially there were groups of ten men,” says a Ukrainian commander about his enemy. “Now there are one, two or three without support. Their commander uses them like living meat.” The pictures by Alessio Mamo (above) are also extraordinary. Archie

• When Andy Warhol met Joseph Beuys In Düsseldorf in 1979 it was “like a meeting between two popes,” writes Skye Sherwin. In their artistic expression, the two were “epic opposites”. Warhol eventually made a series of portraits of Beuys. Clare Longrigg, Acting Head of Newsletter

• Fiona Harvey has a definitive read on how the Cop28 deal was made – a deeply imperfect deal negotiated by an Emirati oil executive, but far better than seemed possible a day earlier. The story begins with a brief meeting between US climate envoy John Kerry and the Saudi energy minister. Archie

• The temptation mass tourism continues to plague the most beautiful places in the world. After the paradise island of Bora Bora was forced to stop large cruise ships flooding its fragile ecosystem, the rest of French Polynesia has announced plans to double tourist numbers. Clare

• “It’s as if there was dark matter lurking in the cosmos Carcinogens.” In the New Yorker (£), Siddhartha Mukerjee investigates triggering substances – one of the unsolved mysteries of cancer epidemiology. Clare

Sports

Rebecca Welch. Photo: Harriet Lander/Getty Images

football | West Ham can start planning for the next phase of their continental adventure after securing top spot in their Europa League group with a comfortable 2-0 win over Freiburg. A dramatic late goal from João Pedro gave Brighton a 1-0 win over Marseille and sent them straight into the last 16. The youngest team to represent Liverpool in Europe still ensured a monumental 2-1 win for Union Saint-Gilloise. Meanwhile, Chelsea were held to a goalless draw by Häcken in their return to the Women's Champions League.

cricket | England collapsed again, trailing 2-0 in their T20 series against the West Indies, with Sam Curran's half-century going in vain as England finished on 166-7, chasing down their hosts' 176-7. “England were hoping to use this tour to gain momentum ahead of next year’s T20 World Cup,” wrote Simon Burnton, “and instead they find themselves in a slump.”

football | Rebecca Welch (above) will become the first woman to referee a Premier League game when she takes charge of Fulham's home game against Burnley on December 23. Three days later, Sam Allison will become the first black referee to officiate in the top flight in 15 years.

The front pages

Photo: Guardian

The Guardian The headline reads “We will stand until the end: on the front lines in Ukraine,” as the newspaper covers the war specifically. In the I It says: “Interest rates may have to rise next year, bank warns.” The telegraph it says after the arrest of four people in a suspected cross-border terrorist attack: “Hamas plan to kill Jews in Europe foiled”. The Just has a “Big Tobacco-Funded Pro-Vaping Campaign” that addresses the role of tobacco companies in funding research.

The Mirror “Lost British Boy Found After 6 Years,” the story of 17-year-old Alex Batty, who was found in France. The post has the same story with “Where has Alex been for the last six years?” The Express has “mysterious phone calls from missing Gaynor to a friend” about the disappearance of 55-year-old Gaynor Lord. And in the SunThe headline reads “Ben & Cat stand up”. According to the newspaper, presenters Ben Shephard and Cat Deeley are to be the new faces of TV show This Morning.

Something for the weekend

Our critics' roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now

Pursue Lysette in Monica. Photo: © 2022 MONICA THE MOVIE LLC/PROPAGANDA ITALIA SRL/FENIX ENTERTAINMENT SPA/ALACRAN GROUP LLC

TV
Mary Berry's Highland Christmas (BBC One and iPlayer)
It's Christmas and Santa has somehow decided – without evidence as far as I can see in this damn hell year – that we were good enough to have Mary Berry back. And so, as I imagine, she was tucked away in tissue paper since she was last used, like a crystal ball, unwrapped and placed on the television schedules to wink at us once again, in Mary Berry's “Highland Christmas” with Andy Murray and his grandmother. A nice, soothing special. Lucy Mangan

Music
The 50 best albums of 2023
Our countdown of the best albums of the year continues with punk passion from Olivia Rodrigo, a wake-up call from Yves Tumor and Boygenius' instant indie classic. Blur's “The Ballad of Darren” is number 8, a perfect combination of middle-aged regret with swoon-worthy pop, a powerful career resume. Laura Snapes and Ben Beaumont Thomas

Movie
Monica (British and Irish cinemas)
Trace Lysette (above) has a standout role in Andrea Pallaoro's intelligently crafted film as a young woman who returns home to care for her dying mother. Monica rejects the clichéd “issue film” beats of confrontation, catharsis and resolution. Like his earlier work “Hannah,” in which Charlotte Rampling played the tormented, troubled woman of that name, “Monica” is characterized by its cool compositional rigor: scenes from a life are highlighted with rehearsed, often wordless vignettes and medium-distance shots fixed camera positions, occasionally combined with threatening, asymmetrical close-ups. Peter Bradshaw

Podcast
I Feel Connie (widespread)
Drag Race fans will want to hear drag legend Love Connie's podcast about her! It's packed with anecdotes about moving to LA to break into Hollywood, discussions about Courtney Love, memories of '90s New York, and thoughts on pop culture obsessions. To provide some balance, she is joined by co-host Blake Jacobs. Holly Richardson

Today in focus

Madonna on the Blond Ambition Tour wears a conical bra corset by Jean Paul Gaultier. Photo: Gie Knaeps/Getty Images

How Madonna changed pop culture forever

40 years ago, Madonna began scandalizing and delighting fans and critics around the world. But is she still misunderstood? Brought to you by a long-time Madonna fan Nosheen Iqbal with Maria Gabriel And Donna DeLory.

Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings

Illustration: Ben Jennings/The Guardian

The top

Good news to remind you that the world is not all bad

Brenda Lee. Photo: Universal Music Group

With the classic song she recorded at age 13, “Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree,” Brenda Lee has just become the oldest person to ever reach the top of the US charts. In this interview with Dave Simpson, Lee remembers touring with Jerry Lee Lewis, bonding with the king of rock 'n' roll, and what she learned from Judy Garland.

“It’s been a week, I’m telling you!” Lee says on a Zoom call from her home in Nashville. At 78, she became the oldest person to achieve a top spot on the US charts (she is now 79), overtaking Louis Armstrong, who was 63, as Hello, Dolly! went to number 1 in 1964.

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