The next major eastward expansion, which will change the EU forever, is approaching. The Twenty-Seven's decision to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova accelerates a process spurred by the war started by Russia and the Kremlin's threats to its neighbors. In addition, it exposes the community club to its vulnerability again and forces it to reform in order to remain functional with initially 29 member states and around 500 million inhabitants. The EU must follow the path of these political and economic changes to face a new, more heterodox reality with very different members in economic and social terms. For the Union, enlargement is an existential question of security and a “geostrategic investment in the peace and stability” of Europe, the heads of state and government recognized in the summit declaration.
This Thursday is a huge step. “The European Council’s decision is evidence of our partners’ commitment and commitment to our shared values and EU reforms,” said High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell. “This is a significant step towards a united, prosperous and stable Europe,” he added on social media. “Today is a strategic decision and a day that will go down in the history of our Union,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The Twenty-Seven has set the summer of 2024 as the date to develop a roadmap to clean up these internal reforms, although no deadline has been set for the completion of these institutional changes. The possible changes to the structures, as EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has suggested, without affecting the founding treaties, will be far-reaching: in budgets, in decision-making processes, in agricultural policy.
Essentially, they are planning several options, including that the new major integration – after that of 2004, when Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Cyprus and Malta joined – should take place gradually, with The participation should first be of the candidate countries (each at its own pace) in elements such as the internal market (some voices even talk about integration into the euro and the Schengen area of free movement), various representative bodies and then move up the levels of integration.
This would strengthen European roots and at the same time give applicants the opportunity to take part in programs that can also help them adapt to European standards. This option, defended by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and also by the French President Emmanuel Macron, and to which some candidates are open (e.g. North Macedonia), does not convince everyone. Not even within the local government, where there are some cautious voices.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who launched the invasion of Ukraine to keep the country under his umbrella and prevent the consolidation of his move towards the Union, has achieved the opposite of what he intended. Russia's war against Ukraine, which is almost two years old and without which the enlargement towards the Balkans, which has failed for years, would not be revived, has made European citizens aware of the urgency of extension.
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According to a survey released this week by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Europeans are willing to accept Ukraine's accession, despite the economic and security risks associated with admitting a country at war. However, the reaction towards Albania, Bosnia, Georgia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia is rather distant. The survey also shows that it is the citizens of the oldest member states – such as France, Austria, Denmark and Germany – who are most opposed to enlargement. A significant percentage in almost all Member States (e.g. 54% of Austrians) also believe that opening the doors to new members (particularly in Ukraine) does not bring any economic benefit to the community club.
In fact, the expansion to include Kiev, Chisinau, the five Balkan countries and Georgia (which they named as a candidate country this Thursday) is putting a strain on the community club. Hungary's opposition has proven this, even though its Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has opened his hand and avoided maintaining a veto that has been in the air for weeks. This is evident in the blockades of grain and Ukrainian trucks at the Polish border and tensions with other neighbors. The negotiations on the budget review, in which several partners want to get their hands on the cohesion and agricultural funds (which will essentially have the new Member States as beneficiaries), are also already thinking about the next bills to be set in 2027 and already determined Look ahead. The expansion.
The rush on Ukraine, which has passed through all previous statuses (applicant, candidate and negotiating candidate) to the start of talks in just two years, is hurting the countries of the Western Balkans. Some of them took much longer to reach the point that Kiev has now reached. Albania, for example, was identified as a potential candidate in 2003 and it was only in 2020 that the European Council approved the start of negotiations. Others, like Serbia, spent less time on the situation but watched in frustration for years as negotiations failed to progress. Belgrade was given the green light in 2013 and ten years later there hasn't been much progress.
However, the paradigmatic case is Turkey, a country that was declared a candidate country in 1999 and received approval to begin negotiations to join the EU in 2005. Two decades later, barely three chapters of the 33 conversations have been published. In any case, the talks with Ukraine and the rest involve a lot of fine print and their actual accession may take many years.
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