Historic peak halfway. Because if it is true that the European Union managed to deal a blow to enlargement and open accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova with what is now referred to in the corridors of the Council building as the “Orban process” (the Unanimity vote in the absence of one person). in the room), it is also true that the Hungarian Prime Minister did not give in to the revision of the Community budget and blocked both the 50 billion to support Kiev and the funds for other budget items such as migration and innovation. And then the heads of state and government will meet again at the end of January for an extraordinary summit. Time, however, is of the essence.
The European Commission is in the process of disbursing the last tranche of funding already approved for 2023 – 1.5 billion – and it should last until the beginning of 2024. In Ukraine we see things differently. “We expect that all necessary legal procedures will be completed by January so that we can obtain the appropriate funds as quickly as possible,” the State Department said in a statement. February is already considered critical. This simply means that salaries and pensions of public employees may not be paid out (or only partially). It is no coincidence that Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni described it as a “very serious” shift. “There is a lot of talk about the EU's strategic autonomy, which today means economic and military support for Ukraine, without the concerns we had this evening,” he stigmatized. So what to do? Orban, a supporter of cameras, made it very clear: without the release of funds from the PNRR (10.4 billion) and Cohesion (11.7 billion), he will not lift the veto on the budget revision. A position that was applauded by the Kremlin.
“Unlike many European countries, Hungary resolutely represents its interests, and that amazes us,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov in a more than obvious endorsement. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was equally direct. “The rules are known to everyone: when there are reforms, the resources come,” he explained, stressing that there has been progress on the agreed commitments to the reforms of the justice system within the framework of the cohesion funds. In fact, 10 billion were released (incidentally, on the eve of summit). However, it is not credible that Budapest will complete all the necessary homework by the end of January. “By the end of January we will prepare so that if the Hungarian veto remains in place, we can proceed with a 26-party solution for Ukraine,” von der Leyen explained. As? There are various hypotheses. “You have no idea how creative we can be,” warn senior European sources close to the dossier. “But the first option – they affirm – is to maintain unity.”
This is not about demonizing the Hungarian Prime Minister, who, it must be remembered, will definitely have a thousand opportunities to get in the way if he wants to in the coming months. “Ukraine is not ready for EU membership: Fortunately, we will have many opportunities to correct the decision made yesterday,” he already threatens on X-Twitter.
In fact, the start of negotiations is only the beginning of a long journey for Ukraine. Which must pass the blue star executive's test in March on whether the enabling reforms have been fully implemented and then agree on the actual negotiating framework with the 27. And there it will have to go through the Caudine forks of the council again. French President Emmanuel Macron, on the other hand, warned that Ukraine's possible EU membership was “still a long way off” despite the turning point at the summit and that there was still time on the European side to prepare for the necessary reforms (already feared). the impact on agricultural policy). Kiev's enthusiasm could soon be dashed. “It is unlikely that the negotiating framework will be opened before the summer,” say other European sources. Orban's game still needs to be played.
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