A chaotic autumn and a combative opponent: Justin Trudeau is still far from recovering in the polls. The Prime Minister will benefit from keeping the clock ticking until 2025 rather than rushing the election to 2024.
After months of the Conservatives trailing in the polls, there is no longer any question of telling stories in the Liberal camp. “We think it will take us a good year to rebuild everything,” a liberal source reveals on the phone.
Housing and the cost of living are high on the list of concerns for Canadians. When something goes wrong, the government is inevitably to blame.
The Liberals know that their support is closely linked to economic ups and downs.
An impending rate cut could ease Canadians' worries about their upcoming mortgage renewal. Stabilizing the cost of living could also calm discontent against the Liberals, but it will take time. The Bank of Canada estimates that a return to the 2% inflation target will not occur before 2025.
Starting next summer, Canadians will breathe a sigh of relief, our Liberal source hopes. A stronger than expected economic recovery could also give the Liberals a boost.
There are many stars that need to be aligned.
A 2025 election campaign would potentially give the Liberals two budgets to prove to the population that they are capable of meeting expectations around household responsibility, cost of living and housing benefits.
Make the opponent known
Behind the scenes, the Liberals believe giving Canadians more time to study Pierre Poilievre will be to their advantage. In other words, we must give the conservative leader time to expose his weaknesses.
In recent weeks, overconfidence has played tricks on him. His allegations to the media following his early exit over the Rainbow Bridge accident and his opposition to the recasting of the Canada-Ukraine agreement gave his opponents ammunition.
The Conservatives' parliamentary blockade maneuvers also backfired. Pierre Poilievre's troops forced 135 votes on a number of specific budget items that became weapons for the Liberals. The latter could accuse them of, for example, voting against financing the construction of affordable housing or against military aid for Ukraine.
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A certain overconfidence on the part of the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Pierre Poilievre, played a trick on him.
Photo: The Canadian Press / Sean Kilpatrick
After the Conservatives held a roughly 15-point lead over the Liberals throughout the fall, a recent Abacus* poll gives Justin Trudeau's party a glimmer of hope. This poll, conducted December 7-12, shows the Conservatives lost 5 points in voting intentions and the Liberals gained 4 points (PCC, 37%; PLC, 27%).
If this isn't already a trend, it's certainly a warning. Still, according to this Abacus poll, one in three Canadians would like to see a change in government but are not convinced by the alternatives. In November, the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party were tied in this group. Today, the PLC is 16 points ahead, Abacus CEO David Coletto noted Dec. 13 on the X Platform.
Despite his comfortable lead, Pierre Poilievre still has work to do to consolidate his support.
The conservative leader is always slow to express his positions on important issues.
What are the climate goals? What cuts would be necessary to return to a balanced budget? Would he keep key social programs implemented by the Liberals, such as daycare and dental care programs? It's still impossible to know. Over time, the questions become more pressing and it becomes difficult to defend ambiguities. Justin Trudeau will not fail to emphasize this.
The power of the NDP
In this context, maintaining the agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP), which must ensure the stability of the government until 2025, is not only logical but, above all, crucial.
Could the NDP be tempted to pull the rug out from under the Liberals? The relationship seems to be holding up for now. The two parties persuade each other and show flexibility. They agreed to push back the deadline for submitting a prescription drug insurance bill to March 1.
The government has just announced the launch of the new dental care program and introduced the anti-scab bill in the fall, as promised by the NDP.
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Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party has never had more power in Ottawa because of its support and confidence agreement with the Liberals.
Photo: The Canadian Press / Spencer Colby
The New Democrats have never had so much power in Ottawa and are in no hurry to hand the keys of Parliament to Pierre Poilievre, especially since they have failed to take advantage of the Liberals' decline in the polls. Their support remained stable.
The marriage of convenience between the Liberals and the NDP holds: There is currently no talk of initiating divorce proceedings. The fact is that accidents can happen quickly in a minority parliament.
After eight years in power, does Justin Trudeau still have the political capital to catch up? If he wants to achieve this, the Prime Minister will need all the time at his disposal.
* Survey methodology:
This survey was conducted by the Abacus Data Panel of 1,919 Canadians and was conducted December 7-12 using an online questionnaire. As a guide, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points, 19 out of 20.