Will Vladimir Putin impose martial law, mobilize conscripts and reservists, and requisition the Russian economy? The US secret service assumes so. US intelligence chief Avril Haines said on Tuesday that the Kremlin chief’s ambitions exceeded his army’s capabilities. And considered a “more unpredictable course and possible escalation” in the coming months as “likely” and “more drastic measures, including the imposition of martial law”.
What is Martial Law?
Martial law, which is often imposed when a country is at war, establishes a legal state of emergency in a country. It is invoked by the head of state, and powers are partially delegated to the military authorities.
In the case of Russia, martial law is defined in Article 87 of its constitution. “It will be introduced by decree of President Putin, and this decision must be approved by the Council of the Federation,” notes Dimitri Minic, PhD in history of international relations and researcher at Ifri’s Russia-NIS Center (French Institute of International Relations).
Martial law can be justified by several situations: a foreign invasion of Russian territory, attacks on Russian troops abroad, blockades or even bombing in Russia. “He will have no problem justifying that,” said Dimitri Minic.
Is it believable?
The warning comes from US intelligence, whose predictions about the conflict have often been proven correct in recent months – having predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine. US intelligence chief Avril Haines says a “more unpredictable course and possible escalation” is “probable” in the coming months, particularly with the conflict expanding into Transnistria, a pro-Russian separatist region on the Ukrainian border in Moldova.
The Americans probably rely on intelligence and analysis (for martial law), Dimitri Minic points out. “The Russian army needs men. She would have lost between 10,000 and 20,000 men. It is estimated that it suffered significant material losses, especially armored vehicles, as almost 2,000 units would be out of service. The explanation of a general or partial mobilization is therefore likely if the Kremlin looks rationally at the human and material losses. »
What would that change?
Many things. “In the end, Russia would have several hundred thousand more men, between 500,000 and a million,” predicts Dimitri Minic. The imposition of martial law would allow Vladimir Putin to mobilize conscripts as young as 18 and send them to the front. “They can be used for menial tasks, logistics. The Russian reserve, consisting of former conscripts and contractors, can also be mobilized even if “a tiny part is combat-ready”.
Martial law would also allow the army to maintain order in place of the police in Russia, but also further tighten existing laws with censorship, curfews or trade restrictions. The state could also ban strikes and demonstrations and impose forced labor.
“There would also be the mobilization of Russia’s economic, administrative and industrial infrastructures to move to a war economy,” says Dimitri Minic. This will allow Russia to replace lost ammunition and equipment. »
According to the researcher, martial law would finally turn the Russian invasion into a “long war.” “Putin underestimated the forces needed to defeat the Ukrainian army, he analyses. Martial law would be an admission of military and strategic weakness for Russia, which could not have foreseen the nature of this war, the reaction of Ukraine and especially the West. »