For the New York Mets, Yoshinobu Yamamoto exists in a special category. According to people briefed on the club's thinking, the Mets view Yamamoto, the 25-year-old star free agent pitcher from Japan, as someone at the top of the market worth pursuing as closely as possible become. In this regard, he stands alone as a player worth rooting for.
In other words, if the Mets don't sign Yamamoto, expect their offseason to continue to be different than it has been in recent years. For example, owner Steve Cohen approved the highest payroll in baseball history last year. This winter, the first under president of baseball operations David Stearns, the Mets have handed out just a few one-year contracts to supplemental players or players looking to recapture past success.
So if the Mets miss out on Yamamoto, they aren't expected to simply move on to the next best available free agent pitcher, be it Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. Somewhere in the next league, Lucas Giolito would theoretically be of interest to the club, but he could also end up getting a deal beyond the Mets' preferred range. To find matches with the club's thinking, search below.
There are holes in the Mets' roster – especially the pitching staff – so they stay active and spend money. But people familiar with the club's thinking expect him to continue negotiating one- or two-year deals here and there. This isn't like last season, when the Mets signed Justin Verlander but likely had Carlos Rodón as an expensive backup plan; It sounds like the Mets have a more focused approach to 2024.
According to sources (Koji Watanabe/Getty Images), the Mets don't have any big-ticket items on their board this offseason other than Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Unless someone's market changes significantly, the Mets aren't expected to pursue someone who makes a big splash – with one exception.
Yamamoto.
Sources offered some key explanations for the Mets' thinking.
For one thing, Yamamoto represents a special opportunity for any club because he is about five years younger than the typical free agent and profiles as a front-line pitcher.
Additionally, several industry players see a recalibration year as a necessity for the Mets.
To be clear, under Cohen, the Mets are expected to remain near the top of the league in payroll for years to come. The Mets' payroll will once again be fighting for the top spot this year. But that's part of the Mets' problem. Despite last year's mediocre results, they are still performing an expensive operation. They pay almost $70 million to players from other teams. This kind of spending and the rising luxury tax penalties that come with it seem unsustainable, regardless of how rich the owner is.
Given the amount of money potentially being taken away from the Mets, some familiar with the Mets' thinking say New York is eyeing next winter, when they have major payroll flexibility. The Mets' 2025 payroll will be $119 million as it currently stands, so it's possible they could fall fully under the tax if necessary.
Therefore, the appearance of caution in free agency this year may just be an indicator of where they are as an organization and not an indication of how they plan to proceed each year. Even now, with Cohen, the Mets shouldn't be fully counted as a player until they sign elsewhere. But based on conversations around the league, it appears the first offseason of the Cohen-Stearns partnership may require some patience.
This obvious path for the Mets shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Max Scherzer said one reason he waived his no-trade clause at the trade deadline was because he was told the Mets wouldn't be as aggressive in free agency. Since the trade deadline, Mets officials have indicated they would enter 2024 with fewer chances of winning a World Series.
The Mets are more than one player away from being considered favorites for a deep playoff run. In a worst-case scenario, some sort of recalibration year would give New York — especially in the first year of a new front office — a chance to learn more about its young players and farm system.
The Mets' minor league system has improved, but they lack premium pitching (their best pitching prospects are considered No. 3-type starters by rival evaluators). Pitching is the highest currency in baseball, and the Mets don't have much of it, which is another reason they find themselves in this position.
Still, Stearns has said since taking over that the Mets would field a competitive team. On his first day, Stearns said the Mets should be in the playoff race. That's a lower bar than it sounds given the expanded format, but it's still one the Mets want to overcome.
To help them do that, the Mets are looking for pitching help after Ronny Mauricio's injury, a regular-season outfielder and, preferably, a right-handed hitter at third base, according to conversations with people briefed on the club's situation Think. The list may not end here, but these goals appear. With all of these items, price seems to be a deciding factor in what type of player they end up with. They are looking for affordability.
Except for Yamamoto, who would help now and in the future.
Similar to the other serious suitors for Yamamoto, the Mets don't know if they will secure his signature. Nonetheless, he is an example of the Mets having a player in their sights and Cohen, as a recent trip to Japan proves, is willing to do whatever it takes to get him. Still, they might not end up with him. Either way, it doesn't sound like there's another player out there worth paying the premium for, according to the Mets.
(Photo by Steve Cohen: Brad Penner/USA Today)