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The influence of pollutant emissions and the El Niño climate phenomenon, which is expected to remain active for another six months, could make 2024 even hotter than 2023, a year that will break historical temperature records.
In an interview with Turkey's Anadolu Agency, Sarah Kapnick, chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), explains that since October, 50% of the ocean has been exposed to a marine heat wave and with it the Earth's thermometers are also reaching their peak.
NOAA predicts that the peak of El Niño will occur in the first month of 2024, increasing the likelihood that new heat waves and extreme weather events will occur during this period, as the global average temperature usually follows this phenomenon.
“2023 is on track to be the hottest year on record, and next year is expected to be even hotter,” warns Kapnick. The expert also names the emission of pollutants into the atmosphere as one of the main factors in the climate scenario.
It expects global temperatures to continue rising with the peak of El Niño, putting the world in a precarious position during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with high global temperatures, a greater likelihood of heatwaves and other extreme weather events.
Carlo Buontempo, director of the European Union's climate change service (Copernicus), told the agency he agreed with the forecast.
“2024 is on track to be another record year. Therefore, it is quite possible that we will see more warming.”
For him, climate instability means humanity is traveling through unknown terrain, with even greater risks of more intense and prolonged droughts.
“We have had records every month since July. This is simply unprecedented […] The sea water reached temperatures never before measured. “This is a new world where we can expect different things than what we have seen before,” he says.
During COP 28, which ended this week in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, world leaders sought alternatives to the effects of global warming. One of the agreements is to try to significantly reduce fossil fuel production.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), gas emissions must be reduced by at least 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 and by 60% by 2035.
Source: Globo Rural.