There is a group of climate negotiation experts who know that a single extra verb or comma can derail an entire agreement. Every year they meet at the UN climate summits, the so-called COPs, and represent their countries there. And then there are the ministers who also take part in the final round of these conferences and who sometimes leave the COP without really knowing what is happening before their eyes. This is not the case with Teresa Ribera, the third vice-president and minister for the Spanish ecological transition. Since he has had twenty years of summits behind him, he knows the core of these negotiations, their players and knows where the pitfalls lie that could cause the talks to fail. The fact that she has one foot on both sides, both technically and politically, has made her one of the key figures for COP28 in Dubai, which ends on Wednesday with an agreement that directly targets fossil fuels for the first time to leave these behind.
Ribera celebrated the agreement with an emotional hug after the COP plenary session. She gave it to another protagonist of this story: Valvanera Ulargui, director of the Spanish Climate Protection Office. They have been working together at summits for two decades, long before these conferences became a major event attended by 70,000 people and for which 4,000 journalists were accredited. But this year was special for Ribera, Ulardi and the twenty people who were part of the hard core of the national negotiating delegation. Because Spain, through its presidency of the EU Council, coordinates the European countries and discussed the twenty-seven in Dubai. Ribera, together with the EU Commissioner for Climate Protection, Wopke Hoekstra, headed the so-called “Europe team”: several hundred experts from the EU institutions and the 27 who come to negotiate the texts at such summits.
What follows is the story of the 48 heartbreaking hours of an exciting COP in which fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal – were clearly highlighted for the first time; and how this all-or-nothing negotiation was experienced from the heart of the Spanish delegation.
Monday 11th, 9:00 a.m. From the first hour, it is expected that the COP28 presidency, which is in the hands of Sultan al Jaber, Minister of Industry of the United Arab Emirates, will present the draft text to the representatives of the almost 200 countries present in Dubai What is most important in this quote is: the balance sheet of the development of efforts to comply with the Paris Agreement. It is the first made in a COP since the major climate pact was struck in the French capital in 2015. However, what is important is not the balance sheet itself, because it is already known that the efforts are not enough, but what this text says about the next climate plans that countries will have to present in 2025.
Teresa Ribera at a press conference at COP28 with the EU Commissioner for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra. AMR ALFIKY (Portal)
This Monday morning one arrives with the feeling of having it all or nothing, as expressed in the coordination meetings that the Twenty-Seven hold every day at 8:30 a.m. in the Spanish Pavilion in the Doñana Room (the walls are full of photos of this one protected place). Space). Because what the most ambitious countries like the EU want is for the final agreement to explicitly mention the phase-out of fossil fuels. Science has made it clear that they are primarily responsible for the gases that are fueling the climate crisis. But summit after summit avoided mentioning the elephant in the room: the agreements were about emissions, not their causes. Saudi Arabia and other countries heavily dependent on their oil exports want it to stay that way and are publicly demanding that the fuel not be mentioned. They are joined by the head of OPEC, Haitham Al Ghais, who in a letter to all members of this organization calls on them to block any reference. Emirates, the host of the COP, is part of OPEC. But Sultan al Jaber – another undisputed protagonist of this story – insists that he will not avoid the fuel debate in the texts he presents.
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Monday 11th, 5:00 p.m The Presidium publishes the draft. Ribera and Hoekstra are in the same building, in the joint pavilion between Spain and the Commission. On the first floor the Spanish offices; in the second, the community. The teams begin by analyzing the text for the two key terms “fossil fuels” and “phase-out”. Fuels are mentioned, but nothing about their elimination, and there are some confusing references that in no way indicate their end. “It was quite a shock,” recalls the Spanish vice president. Ribera and Hoekstra agree on the wording used to evaluate the text: “The text is clearly inadequate and the package contains elements that are unacceptable” and “this is not what we need to make this COP historic.” At 19.15 At 7 p.m. they will meet with the other European ministers to determine the common rejection position.
Valvanera Ulargui (in the middle and standing) analyzes the first text of the COP28 presidency with some members of the Spanish Climate Change Office. / MITECO
Monday 11th, 9:30 p.m European ministers are meeting with representatives of many other countries that do not accept the text, including Chilean Minister Maisa Rojas and Colombian Minister Susana Muhamad. “That day was terrible because we knew the window was there,” says Ribera. “When we saw the text, we realized that although all the words were there, they were not introduced with the necessary verbs and implications,” he recalls. After this meeting between some countries, the meeting of heads of delegations – many of them ministers – begins the presidency of COP28. There is a wave of criticism of the draft, which is joined by the United States, Australia and many Latin American and African countries… “The reaction has been nice,” says the Spanish vice president. “There was a majority reaction, almost unanimous, that said: We didn't like the text, but we won't leave without what we want.” However, Saudi Arabia remains in the same blocking position. The bilateral meetings continue until over 3 a.m. without anyone believing that the summit will end as planned at 11 a.m. the next day.
Teresa Ribera, center, meeting with ministers from other countries after learning the first draft of the COP28 presidency. / MITECO
Tuesday 12. 9.30. While António Guterres is waiting for a new draft, he is taking part in the EU coordination meeting that day. In recent years, the UN Secretary-General has become one of the scourges of fossil fuels with speeches that focus on oil, gas and coal. In fact, in his speech at the start of COP28, he made it crystal clear: “We cannot save a burning planet with a hose of fossil fuels.” Furthermore, he stressed that complying with the Paris Agreement requires its “gradual phase-out.” At this meeting in the Doñana room of the Spanish pavilion, Guterres must maintain a neutral position. But he gives the European negotiators some advice: “Maintain alliances so that the EU is not left alone,” is the message at the closed-door meeting.
Tuesday 12. 11.00 The summit does not end at 11:00 a.m. as planned. In view of the strong criticism of the draft published the day before, the COP28 Presidency appeals to the media. “It was a starting point for discussions,” says the summit’s director general, Majid al Suwaidi, of the text. The presidency's intention was for countries to respond, he claims. “What we have seen since then is that the parties have deep and deeply divided views, particularly around language around fossil fuels,” al Suwaidi adds.
Tuesday 12th afternoon and night. The blockade continues. While it already seems clear that mention of fossil fuels will occur – something that has not been achieved in three decades of negotiations – the crucial question is which verb will accompany it. The red line drawn by the most belligerent and oil-rich countries is the term “progressive elimination.” As the afternoon and evening progress, the time for publishing the new draft will be delayed. In cross-party and bilateral discussions, the search continues for another term that is acceptable to everyone. Decisions at climate summits are made by consensus and practically any country can block the agreements.
During the afternoon, the Presidency begins to distribute among countries a text containing the phrase “transition away from fossil fuels” (the negotiations are taking place in English), for which there is not even a clear translation into Spanish. It can be something like a shift away from fossil fuels. That night, the negotiating teams are exhausted and sleep restlessly wherever they can. Ribera, on a sofa in the Spanish pavilion.
Teresa Ribera with Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra during a meeting with Sultan al Jaber (in the background) and his team. / MITECO
Wednesday 13th 7.00. The Presidency publishes the second draft with this transitional formula, on which there appears to be agreement. Other mentions also include tripling global renewable energy by 2030, ending public support for fossil fuels and gradually reducing the use of coal. The agreement seems to have been reached, but not even the presidency has everything under control. In a small meeting with the media, a representative of Al Jaber's team reiterated that it was a consensus proposal, but that a country could raise its hand and block it at any time in the plenary session. The plenary session is convened at 10:00 a.m. to adopt the text. At 9:00 a.m. all European ministers meet and there is an optimistic atmosphere. But Ribera remains concerned about the possibility of a country raising its hand in the plenary session. The balance in the text is “so delicate” that if a single country protests, many others could follow to change other things in the agreement, Ribera argues.
Wednesday 13th 11:00 The final plenary session of COP28 begins. Everyone is looking at Saudi Arabia. But the president of the summit gives the hammer blow with which the text is adopted without anyone raising any objections. Then the interventions follow each other. Some criticized the text because they felt it was not ambitious enough. Many others speak of a historic pact because it was the first time that the call against oil, gas and coal was taken up. The Spanish delegation is already back home, exhausted, after more than two weeks of intensive work in Dubai and almost six months of preparation for a summit that will mark the path to the end of the fuel age. Fossils. Whether or not people travel, and at the appropriate speed, will now depend on the countries.
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