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The leaders of the Twenty-Seven are due to meet in Brussels in January after talks over paying a new tranche of aid to Kiev failed. Without a Budapest deal, they could be forced to innovate.
Published on December 17, 2023 2:01 p.m
Reading time: 3 minutes
Several heads of state and government, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (left), French President Emmanuel Macron (back) and Estonian Prime Minister Evika Silina (center), at a European Council in Brussels, Belgium, on March 14. December 2023. (EUROPEAN UNION / HANS LUCAS / AFP)
Move forward, despite the blockade in Budapest. This, to sum up, is what European Union (EU) leaders promised on Friday, December 15, in Brussels, Belgium, after Hungary refused to pay a new tranche of aid to Ukraine.
The EU's 50 billion euros in donations and loans spread over four years are still crucial for Kiev as the counteroffensive against Russia stalls and new American aid is blocked by Congress. Despite the emergency and after allowing accession negotiations to begin with Ukraine and Moldova, Viktor Orban stopped the discussions.
Therefore, EU heads of state and government would meet “in January” for a new summit to deal with the issue, Council President Charles Michel announced. However, there are no signs that Hungary will change its mind by then, even if unanimity is required on this issue.
Viktor Orban, who is used to this blockade strategy, could veto it again, while the European Commission is withholding the payment of tens of billions of euros in subsidies to Budapest as part of infringement proceedings. A situation that is causing other countries to look for an alternative solution to release funds to Ukraine.
A Plan B of the Twenty-Six
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar suggested on Friday that the 26 other EU member states could provide assistance to Kyiv “on a bilateral basis,” RTE reports. A position shared by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who, while emphasizing “working hard to reach an agreement among the twenty-seven”, stated that it was “now necessary to work on alternatives in order to find a workable solution to have”. In case of lack of unanimity, reports Euractiv.
The same goes for Emmanuel Macron, who recalled during a press conference: “David Cameron [ancien Premier ministre britannique] blocked the budget [en 2014] and that there was a whole bypass mechanism,” adding that the EU “[savait] do” in such a situation.
What could this Plan B look like? The idea of creating a common fund of the 26 member states without Hungary was expressed by European diplomats. But without the framework of European institutions, bringing together €33 billion in loans and €17 billion in donations risks becoming complex and time-consuming.
If this formula doesn't work, could Viktor Orban be asked to leave the council chamber again, as he did when approving accession negotiations with Ukraine? This option appears to be ruled out, especially since this new tranche of aid to Kyiv is part of a broader discussion on the overhaul of the EU budget from 2021 to 2027, which is the result of disagreements between member countries over the bloc's priorities and the EU's increase in spending .
“We should make a decision together”
However, several leaders fear that the unity at the heart of the European project will be sacrificed at the altar of efficiency. “I hope we don’t have to [aller vers un plan B]“said Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, reports the Financial Times. “Most of the time we should come to a decision together.” [Inviter un membre à quitter la salle du Conseil] is not something we have to do every time,” said Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday, Politico reports.
European leaders tried to remain optimistic after negotiations collapsed. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo wanted to convince Kiev of the EU's “support” and that it was simply necessary to “define a few details”. Ukraine “will not remain without support,” supported Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, while believing that a solution from the 27 would take too long, “while Ukraine has none,” the Financial Times reports.