The political landscape has been turbulent this fall with by-elections, flip-flops, wavering public opinion, diplomatic embarrassments, a cost-of-living crisis and a busy international scene.
What political lesson should we learn? Who did it well? Who failed? What gift can we wish for politicians? Answers from Behind the Scenes of Power panelists Chantal Hébert, Alec Castonguay and Michel C. Auger.
- Alec Castonguay moderates Midi information about the ICI premiere.
- Chantal Hébert is an analyst and columnist for the Toronto Star.
- Michel C. Auger is a political analyst for La Presse and Radio-Canada.
The content of this broadcast has been edited for brevity and clarity.
The significant event
CHANTAL : The downfall of François Legault. If we look at the surveys from the beginning of the year [par rapport à] Compared to the end of the year, François Legault lost significantly more votes in voting intentions. Mr. Legault has become the province's least popular premier, which is also unusual…
ALEC : The rapid and gradual rise in interest rates. The gloomy climate is due to a variety of factors, including central banks tightening the screws to curb inflation. These decisions by the Bank of Canada have nothing to do with our governments, but have a huge impact on them and their popularity ratings. So there is an effect on public policy, but also an effect on public opinion polls.
MICHAEL : The rise to power of Pierre Poilievre. He still managed to dominate the scene and achieve a lot in the public debate.
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“Coulisses du politique” panelists Alec Castonguay, Chantal Hébert and Michel C. Auger, with moderator Daniel Thibeault (left).
Photo: Radio-Canada
The political lesson of the year
ALEC : You need to prepare your release of a flagship promise as carefully as you did when drafting it. Going beyond the promise of the third link is one thing, but the way it was implemented is another. The Prime Minister did not appear at the press conference. The faction had not been warned and was in shock.
This had a domino effect as we wanted to keep the faction happy by accelerating the increase in MP salaries. People were dissatisfied because they could not easily increase their salaries. And all this led to Jean-Talon's defeat in the by-election.
And it all stems from a botched promise that voters saw as a betrayal. We could have avoided many problems if we had explained better and if we had taken the time to do things well.
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Voters are more sensitive to inconsistencies than politicians would like to believe when they are popular, emphasizes Chantal Hébert.
Photo: The Canadian Press / Jacques Boissinot
CHANTAL : The big political lesson of 2023 is to remember that no politician, even a popular one, can assume they have a blank check from the people.
Voters are much more sensitive to contradictions than politicians would like to believe when they are popular.
MICHAEL : I am in the same spirit as Chantal. In politics, we cannot ride on our popularity, even though the tide seems to be very high and we have just won a super majority in the National Assembly. Given the political mistakes Mr. Legault has made this year, it is clear that it was he who led his party to this decline in the polls.
It feels like he was surfing a wave, then the wave brought him back to the beach, then there was no more water.
The political mistake
MICHAEL : The sales. The third link was the most spectacular, but there were others.
Losing the by-election in Jean-Talon and saying the next morning: I didn't sleep much, but then I decided: We have to build a third highway connection to Quebec… That's what people didn't accept: It is inconsistency.
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The turnaround regarding the third Quebec-Lévis connection was the most spectacular by François Legault and judge Michel C. Auger. We see the Pierre-Laporte and Quebec bridges here.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Guillaume Croteau-Langevin
When the Prime Minister doesn't seem like someone who is in control of his files, it is always disastrous for his government because his ministers no longer know where to turn. This leads to differences of opinion within the Council of Ministers, the Assembly of Deputies, and of course has an impact on the population.
CHANTAL : This story of a publicly funded hockey game versus a food bank…
This is the kind of mistake… It's not serious, we're not going to ruin Quebec's finances with it, but the fact that the person who's running this is the finance minister, who was talking about rigor a week later… From that moment on it really said, in the spirit of the popular image: “They have lost their way.” They no longer know what they are doing. »
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Surrounded by Liberal MPs from the Atlantic provinces, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced carbon pricing changes in Ottawa on October 26, 2023.
Photo: The Canadian Press / Sean Kilpatrick
ALEC : Justin Trudeau's partial withdrawal from the Atlantic provinces' carbon tax on heating oil. This destroys the entire argument they have been making for years, [savoir que] The CO2 tax brings more to the population than it costs them. Because we wanted to score short-term points, we gave Pierre Poilievre what he had been looking for for so long: an admission from the government that the carbon tax is doing harm somewhere…
Accelerate funding for heat pumps: Yes! Frankly, suspending the carbon tax didn't fit the government's narrative for years, and it's paying the price.
Good and not so good performances
ALEC : I chose a character who is nevertheless polarizing: Pierre Fitzgibbon. I know that he has made some ethical mistakes since becoming an MP. But regarding the mandate he received to develop the sectors of the future in Quebec (battery sector, hydrogen, etc.), we cannot say that he has not delivered the goods.
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Minister Pierre Fitzgibbon is a polarizing figure but we can't say he hasn't delivered the right results, says Alec Castonguay.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Sylvain Roy Roussel
CHANTAL : NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. Two projects that were long-standing fantasies of the New Democratic Party have become reality: the anti-scab law and the expansion of Canadian health insurance to cover dental care. They will be able to say: We have a reason for being in Parliament.
10 years ago this would have been considered an NDP fantasy, but thanks to this pact it is becoming a reality.
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Jagmeet Singh is using the pact with the Liberals to turn NDP dreams into reality, emphasizes Chantal Hébert.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Benoit Roussel
MICHAEL : Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who brought his party back to the top, a party that still only has four representatives in the National Assembly but, above all, brought home the PQ.
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Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, here with Pascal Paradis, who was elected in a partial election in Jean-Talon in Quebec, was able to bring the PQ under its spell again, says Michel C. Auger.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Louis-Philippe Arsenault
The weakest link
MICHAEL : Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, who failed to advance his party in the elections. He remains relevant with his interventions in the National Assembly, but it seems that this party has reached a ceiling that it cannot break through.
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Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, here with Québec Solidaire's new co-spokeswoman Émilise Lessard-Therrien, failed to advance his party in the elections, reports Michel C. Auger.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Sylvain Roy Roussel
CHANTAL : Quebec is the province most resistant to Pierre Poilievre's charms, and I blame his faction in Quebec in part.
It seems like everyone [au caucus du Parti conservateur du Canada au Québec] put his ability to analyze or talk about Quebec on hold to allow Pierre Poilievre to take up all the space.
It's a bunch of yes-men and yes-women who are waiting because they don't want to be excluded from a council of ministers… Except that the best way to be a minister is still to win an election campaign.
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The Conservative Party's Quebec caucus is at least partly responsible for the resistance that its leader Pierre Poilievre is encountering in Quebec, believes Chantal Hébert.
Photo: The Canadian Press / Adrian Wyld
ALEC : France-Hélène Duranceau, Minister of Housing in Quebec. We didn't feel much empathy from Ms. Duranceau. She was portrayed as the minister of the owners rather than the minister of the tenants. She signed the agreement with Ottawa that promises Quebec 8 billion for housing construction. It's not a total failure, but you can't say it helps their government either.
The price of lemons
CHANTAL : Former Governor General David Johnston, the most significant person with poor judgment in 2023.
ALEC : Eric Girard, the Secretary of the Treasury, and his subsidy to the Los Angeles Kings.
I have rarely seen a minister rise from the top five ministers in a government to the five worst in such a short space of time.
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Bishop's University was the only English-speaking university exempt from Quebec's non-resident tuition policy.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Bertrand Galipeau
MICHAEL : Pascal Déry and Jean-François Roberge, who have weakened two universities in Montreal in this whole story of tuition fees at English-speaking universities for non-Quebecers. This is all on the grounds that we hear too much English in the city center. I just didn't understand that.
The revelation of the year
CHANTAL : The election of Wab Kinew, First Nations premier in Louis Riel's homeland in Manitoba… Manitobans appear to have voted not only against the government they wanted to abolish, but also for this new government.
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Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew is Canada's most popular prime minister, according to the latest Angus Reid poll.
Photo: The Canadian Press / Aaron Vincent Elkaim
MICHAEL : Labor leader in Quebec. I have never seen a public sector strike where union leaders had a 75% approval rating. They have communicated very well with their members and the public.
ALEC : Pascal Paradis, the new Parti Québécois MP, was elected in Jean-Talon. I have rarely seen a representative feel comfortable in their chosen clothing so quickly. A lot of calm, a lot of judgment. He did not miss his entry into the National Assembly.
A file to view
MICHAEL : Inflation. Just because she's going down doesn't mean she isn't still a real threat. One cannot say that after crossing the peak the descent will be easy and then constant.
CHANTAL : The American presidential election campaign. The outcome of this election is likely to have a greater impact on governance in Canada than the outcome of the federal election itself.
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Christian Dubé passed his bill to reform the public health system before the holidays.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Sylvain Roy Roussel
ALEC : The founding of Santé Québec. Christian Dubé wants to find his CEO and his board of directors for the month of March… Making all this functional by September for a big mammoth like health is happening very quickly.
A corner of the world to look at?
ALEC : Everything that will happen to Ukraine. There are many excuses in the United States about supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. Things are getting complicated, and what is complicated for Ukraine will be complicated for Europe. If the United States dumps Ukraine, or at least significantly reduces its aid, it could be a difficult year for Eastern Europe.
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The US presidential election in November 2024 with the potential candidacy of Donald Trump will be a must.
Photo: (Kevin Lamarque/Portal)
MICHAEL : The elections in the USA will definitely be a feast for the eyes. It's astonishing to hear Donald Trump say: “I'll be a dictator for a day.” We need to keep an eye on the UK, where Keir Stramer's Labor Party is likely to win the election. They could act as a counterweight to this conservative wave.
CHANTAL : The conflict in the Middle East. I have rarely seen an international conflict in Canada evoke so many heartbreaking local echoes. This is true even within Justin Trudeau's caucus and reflects the reality in Canada.
Gifts or resolutions?
CHANTAL : I found a bedside read, a book called “How Not To Be A Politician” by Rory Stewart. This man became deputy, [puis] Conservative minister in Great Britain. He tells you all about how it works. He says the political function of elected officials is distorted. You don't have to be British to identify with it. Someone who wants to become a minister or MP would do well to read this book first to know exactly what it is about.
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How Not To Be A Politician by Rory Stewart is an essential book, according to Chantal Hébert.
Photo: Penguin Press
ALEC : I want answers for Pierre Poilievre's Christmas stocking. There are many important issues in Canada that the Conservative Party does not comment on.
In the Conservative Party we seem to be running out of solutions […]. At the moment we have the impression that it is [Pierre Poilievre] wants power, but we have no idea what he'll do with it.
What would a conservative party in power do with the national child care program? What would he do with the dental care program he just passed? Environment, greenhouse gas emissions, do we have something to offer? The real estate crisis sums it up well, and he does it very well. What do we do? What do we propose?
MICHAEL : I'm going to give the Quebec Liberal Party something: a lead candidate. Not even a leader: just a candidate.
There is no one left who wants to be the boss of the store. It's absolutely amazing when you think about it.
A wish for 2024
MICHAEL : More search for consensus and less polarization. This means that everyone puts some water in their wine.
CHANTAL : For Pierre Poilievre: Remember that you should not sell the bear's skin before killing it.
ALEC : A little patience for François Legault. Don't try to correct your government's mistakes over time.
In collaboration with Marie Chabot-Johnson