The Patriots' inactive players on game day are RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle), OT Trent Brown (ankle/hand/illness), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle), CB Shaun Wade, DE Sam Roberts and WR Kayshon Boutte. Boutte was removed from the final injury report but remains inactive after participating in limited practice this week due to a shoulder injury. The inactive Chiefs are CB Joshua Williams, RB Isiah Pacheco, DE BJ Thompson, OT Donovan Smith, DT Neil Farrell, DT Matt Dickerson and DE Malik Herring.
The good news for the Patriots' offense is that rookie Demario Douglas and veteran DeVante Parker return to the lineup on Sunday. Douglas, the team's leading receiver, missed the last two games due to a concussion he suffered in the loss to the Giants. As for Parker, the veteran wideout missed last week's win over the Steelers due to a knee injury, but will miss one game. After being listed on the injury report in midweek, Tyquan Thornton will be forced to play with a hamstring injury.
With the return of Douglas and Parker, Parker will likely assume his starting role as the Patriots' top “X” receiver, where second-year QB Bailey Zappe is ready to push the ball downfield. However, Zappe has not been efficient on deeper throws down the sideline, completing just 3 of 10 deep passes outside the numbers this season. New England needs Parker to create a more competitive catching threat and keep up with the Chiefs.
As for the other receiver positions, Douglas will likely slip back into the role of the Patriots' primary Z/slot receiver, where offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien will move him around the formation to look for matchups. Douglas ranks fourth among wide receivers with 7.4 yards after catch per reception, so one would expect the Patriots to feed the explosive rookie on Sunday. Thornton will likely be the Pats' third receiver on Sunday.
The Patriots are expected to use Zappe at quarterback for the third straight season, but he will do so without his top receiver from last week's win and his starting left tackle. New England's offensive line without left tackle Trent Brown is expected to consist of LT Conor McDermott, LG Cole Strange, C David Andrews, RG Sidy Sow and RT Mike Onwenu. McDermott has rotated at left wing in recent games as Brown has been limited by an ankle injury. Last week, McDermott played 40% of the offensive snaps while allowing three quarterback hurries.
The Patriots offensive line had one of its better performances against the Steelers. This week, the Pats will have to contend with a Chiefs pass rush that includes All-Pro DT Chris Jones, EDGE George Karlaftis, who leads KC with 57 quarterback pressures, and Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulou's blitz-heavy scheme (fourth-most ) include flash rate: 38.8%). Although the numbers suggest the Chiefs have a modest pass rush, they have two one-on-ones, while Spags is fantastic at scheming unblocked rushers to the quarterback.
New England needs to be prepared with good blitz awareness from Zappe, quick adjustments for the receivers and an offensive line on the same page to solve Kansas City's pressure schemes. In his three starts this season, Zappe's numbers against the blitz were better than his stats when not blitzed. The Pats second-year QB has gone 12 of 18 for 6.9 yards per pass attempt on 25 dropbacks against the blitz, compared to 10 of 21 for 3.3 yards per attempt when the defense isn't blitzing. Based on the numbers, Zappe might be better off if the Chiefs blitzed a lot.
At running back, the Patriots will use Ezekiel Elliott for the second straight year. Elliott played 52 of 57 snaps in last week's win, amassing a season-high 140 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Without Stevenson, the Pats signed second-year Kevin Harris from the practice squad, and veteran RB JaMycal Hasty is active for the first time since joining the team in mid-November. Hasty could play a similar role to Ty Montgomery, who the team waived earlier this week.
Defensively, Patriots DL Christian Barmore (shoulder/illness) is officially active after missing the final practice of the week. Pats linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley (knee) is also back to fitness after being limited Friday. New England will have its full contingent of defensive backs on the active roster to face Chiefs superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes on Sunday.
The plan for the Chiefs offense is to play early down man coverage against their run-pass option schemes with split safety coverages on shot play downs and third downs. The Pats have favored man coverage against zone coverages in past games with Kansas City because of Mahomes' off-script magic and TE Travis Kelce's elite route running. Still expect plenty of two-zone coverage, maybe even drop-eight coverage, while mixing in two-man coverages to keep the defense on top, with man coverage underneath the deep safeties.
Kansas City's offense is having a down year by its standards, ranking 11th in scoring at 22.5 points per game, which is almost a full touchdown less than last season. The Patriots defense has been competitive all season, making this an interesting litmus test for the defense.
The Patriots host the Chiefs on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.