Will Donald Trump establish himself as the Republican candidate for the US presidential election in the first round of voting? Will his opponents, who are weak in the polls, pull off an upset in Iowa? Respond in a month in this Midwestern state that gets the ball rolling for the 2024 primary.
Everyone is vying to oust Democratic President Joe Biden from the White House.
Despite his four criminal charges, some of which threatened him with prison time, former President Donald Trump currently has one of the largest leads ever over his Republican rivals.
“We will make America great again,” he promises at his meetings, echoing the slogan that brought him to power in 2016.
But all American surveys have proven it: The surveys should be viewed with caution, especially at this point in time. For the first time since leaving the White House, the septuagenarian will receive real judgment on January 15, namely that of the ballot box.
The privilege goes to voters in the small, rural state of Iowa, which, as tradition requires, has held primaries since 1972.
Haley and DeSantis in ambush
In this state, as across the country, Donald Trump still has a very loyal base that brushes aside his legal problems.
“I don't even understand what he's accused of,” admits Adam Miller, a supporter of the former president whom AFP met in Makoqueta, Iowa. “If he were accused of murder or corruption…” breathes the 61-year-old farmer.
On January 15th at 7 p.m., this tall, dark-haired man with glasses will meet with the residents of his village, a three-hour drive from Chicago, to vote for the billionaire who is accused of, among other things, electoral pressure.
This evening, six more Republicans will be in the race to block Donald Trump's path. Only two seem to still have a chance.
On the one hand, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a conservative with shocking positions on immigration or LGBT+ people.
In his race for the White House, the forty-year-old bet everything on Iowa, traveling through each of its 99 counties in just a few months. The Republican can also count on the valuable support of Kim Reynolds, the state's governor, who is very popular with voters.
But the former naval officer's popularity has declined sharply in recent months and he has been accused of, among other things, a serious lack of charisma.
There is also former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, the new darling of the American right.
The fifty-year-old, former governor of South Carolina, shined with a more moderate speech than her rivals on the issue of abortion, knowing full well that her party has experienced a series of electoral disappointments on the issue since the repeal of the constitutional protection of abortion rights in the country.
New Hampshire, Nevada
Throughout her campaign, Nikki Haley, like Ron DeSantis, was careful not to attack Donald Trump too much for fear of angering his supporters.
Both are polling at around 12%, a far cry from the former president's 60%.
But observers do not rule out that one or the other could cause a surprise and partially erase the dizzying lead of the stormy Republican.
“If Donald Trump wins anything other than a landslide, he will appear much more vulnerable in the race for the Republican nomination,” Wendy Schiller, a political scientist at Brown University, told AFP.
The following week, the highly orchestrated ballet of the primaries takes the candidates to New Hampshire on the border with Canada, then to the casino state of Nevada and, at the end of February, to South Carolina.
In return, the union's 50 states will vote by June to allocate their delegate quotas to candidates for the national convention in July, which will nominate a Republican for the presidential election in November.
What about the Democrats?
Already with the official support of his party, outgoing President Joe Biden, 81, should – barring any major surprises – be named the Democratic candidate in Chicago in August.
And this despite repeated criticism of his age.
Two candidates, Minnesota elect Dean Phillips and best-selling author Marianne Williamson, are vying to unseat him, although their chances don't seem realistic.