The recency bias creates the impression that the pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the most intense recruiting of a Japanese pitcher we have ever seen. The large number of major teams working with Yamamoto undoubtedly makes his free agency something unusual. But the passion that surrounds the right-hander is not much different from the enthusiasm generated by Daisuke Matsuzaka in the 2006-07 offseason, Yu Darvish in the 2011-12 season and Masahiro Tanaka in the 2013-14 season. And for that matter, Shohei Ohtani in the 2017-18 season.
Ohtani obviously falls into a category of his own, and not just because he's a two-way player. He was 23 when he signed, and his age limited his bonus to $2.3 million under international amateur signing rules. The better comparisons for Yamamoto are Matsuzaka, Darvish and Tanaka, who had no salary restrictions.
Like Yamamoto, Darvish and Tanaka began their age-25 seasons. Matsuzaka was slightly older and started his campaign at the age of 26. In retrospect, their major league experiences could be seen as at least somewhat instructive given the increasingly intense bidding process for Yamamoto.
As The Athletic's Jayson Stark and Eno Sarris explained in separate articles, the objective information available about Yamamoto, from pitch quality assessments to biomechanical analysis, is far more comprehensive than any of his predecessors. However, there is no guarantee.
Matsuzaka, who was traded to the Boston Red Sox on a six-year, $52 million contract after the team acquired his rights for a $51.11 million release fee, made a total of 61 starts in his first two seasons with Boston, including 55 in his last four. His injuries included a torn ligament in his elbow, which required Tommy John surgery. His adjusted ERA with the Red Sox was barely above league average, and after his contract expired he spent two unremarkable seasons with the New York Mets.
Darvish, who joined the Texas Rangers on a six-year, $56 million contract with a $51.7 million release fee, is perhaps the most successful of all Japanese pitchers, a two-time Cy Young Award runner-up and a five-time All-Star in his 12th major league season. He also had elbow issues, requiring Tommy John surgery in 2015, arthroscopic elbow surgery in 2018, and a shutdown due to a stress reaction in late 2023. But his career-adjusted ERA is 17 percent above league average. Zack Greinke, a strong candidate for the Hall of Fame, is 21 percent higher.
Tanaka, who joined the New York Yankees on a seven-year, $155 million free-agent contract, also had a successful major league run despite being diagnosed with a partially torn elbow ligament in his first season. He avoided surgery and averaged 27 starts in his six full seasons before the shortened 2020 season. According to FanGraphs' dollar metric, which converts WAR to a dollar scale based on what a player would earn in free agency, Tanaka easily exceeded his contract with his regular-season performance. He was also a star in the postseason, posting a 3.33 ERA in ten starts.
At his best, even Matsuzaka showed why he was so hyped – in his second season, he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA and led the majors in opponents' batting average. But even Darvish's body of work shows the risk of giving a 10-year or more contract to Yamamoto, who has never played in the majors and, although extremely athletic, is only 5-foot-10 and 176 pounds. However, major league executives don't seem to be deterred by his small stature.
Yamamoto could more than double Tanaka's contract due to heated competition on the open market, excluding a booking fee that could exceed $50 million. The enthusiasm surrounding him is almost certainly justified. The decisions teams make today are more informed than ever before. All I know is that he's not the first Japanese pitcher around 25 to make such a splash, and he won't be the last.
Next up, sometime in the next few years: Roki Sasaki, 22.
The Brewers are still figuring out what to do with Corbin Burnes. (Wendell Cruz/USA Today)
What to do with Burnes?
The Milwaukee Brewers' willingness to trade right-hander Corbin Burnes remains unclear. However, there is a possibility that the team could promote Burnes into the season because owner Mark Attanasio wants to compete and avoid the kind of backlash the team received for moving Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline, according to major sources League who have been informed of the team's considerations.
If the Brewers can't keep up, they could trade Burnes at the 2024 deadline and get a comparable or perhaps even better return as long as he stays healthy. The problem right now for teams willing to trade starting pitchers is that there are still plenty of free agents available. Of those, only Blake Snell would require the loss of a draft pick. The others only cost money, allowing teams to keep their picks and prospects.
This also reduces the Brewers' chances of a meaningful return: Burnes is scheduled to make $15.1 million in his final year as Arbiter before becoming a free agent. Unlike Tyler Glasnow, who was traded from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Los Angeles Dodgers last week, teams believe he is unlikely to sign a contract extension. Burnes' agent, Scott Boras, generally prefers his clients to establish their values on the open market. Glasnow is represented by Wasserman Media Group, which has historically been more receptive to such deals.
So Attanasio might well be thinking: Why do this? Why not try competing first? The Brewers have proven quite adept at maximizing their limited resources, making the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. However, all of these postseason appearances came under the direction of Craig Counsell. Which, if you think about it, could be another reason for Attanasio to keep Burnes and keep Willy Adames at shortstop. Certainly the owner would like to acquire Best Counsell, who moved to the rival Chicago Cubs.
The problem with keeping Burnes is that he could get injured or potentially even lose performance before the deadline. If the Brewers go against it, moving Burnes and Adames would be out of the question for an organization that continues to be scarred by the Hader fallout. So for Burnes, Adames and Brandon Woodruff, who went undrafted after shoulder surgery, the Brewers could end up with just two draft picks – one if they decline to make Adames a qualifying offer.
Proactive, low-turnover teams like the Rays and Cleveland Guardians rarely find themselves in these situations. They look to make a move sooner rather than later, and that's exactly what the Brewers did with Hader, who eventually landed them William Contreras and highly regarded pitching prospect Robert Gasser.
Perhaps the best way to look at it is this: What would the Brewers' NL Central rivals most like to do? Strengthen the club long-term by trading Burnes or Adames for players who would complement the team's existing young talent? Or take one last shot at Burnes and Adames in 2024 and then lose one or both of them because they only have draft picks?
The answer seems obvious. But the choice may not be easy for Attanasio.
Inequalities in the pre-arb bonus pool?
The pre-arbitration bonus pool is intended to provide additional compensation for players with zero to three years of service. But in 2023, the system's second year, a significant portion of the money went to players who were already well compensated.
According to figures compiled by The Associated Press, three of the four highest performance-based bonuses were awarded to players who had long-term contract extensions – Julio Rodríguez ($210 million), Corbin Carroll ($111 million) and Spencer Strider ($75 million). ). Together, the three received an additional $5,370,519, making up more than 10 percent of the $50 million pool.
Why not exclude players with long-term guarantees from the pool and distribute the money to players who lack this security? That's exactly what the union wanted to do in the latest round of collective bargaining, according to sources briefed on the discussions. The union believed money from the bonus pool could help deter 0-3 year olds from signing contract extensions below the market average.
The league declined to comply with the union's request, saying that if a player earns a bonus he should receive it regardless of his contract status. Extensions for 0-for-3 players generally involve low salaries in the early years while the big money comes later. However, Rodríguez and Carroll received signing bonuses of $15 million and $5 million, respectively (Strider's contract did not include a signing bonus).
Adjustments to the way the money is distributed are extremely unlikely during the current CBA, which runs until December 1, 2026. But the union is sure to repeat its attempt to expand the $50 million pool in the next round of negotiations. And if 0-to-3 companies with long-term guarantees continue to get the highest bonuses, a re-examination of how the money is distributed might be in order.
(Top photo by Yamamoto: Koji Watanabe / Getty Images)