The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured Sudan's second largest city, just a day after the army and its supporters prematurely celebrated repelling an attack.
As army soldiers withdrew from Wad Madani – once a hub for hundreds of thousands of displaced people – they left civilians behind. The army has released a rare statement admitting its troops withdrew too quickly and promising an investigation, but supporters are demanding accountability.
“On Sunday we actually celebrated with the rest of Wad Madani,” said Noon Arbab*, a young woman who is now looking for a way out of the city with her family. “Now I think it was all a big lie.”
“I think we should throw off the entire leadership of the army,” she added.
Countless civilians like Arbab are calling for the resignation of army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in the hope that a new leader can thwart the RSF's advances.
Al-Burhan's subordinates are also angry about the way he is waging the war, sources close to the security forces report. But experts warn that a changing of the guard could lead to a power struggle – or vacuum – that divides the Sudanese army.
“Despite the situation al-Burhan finds himself in, I think that if he leaves – however it happens – it will leave an indelible mark on the Sudanese army,” said Kholood Khair, an expert on Sudan and founding director of the think tank Confluence Advisory.
Lose legitimacy
Since the RSF captured Wad Madani, many of the army personnel supporter have called on generals on social media to replace al-Burhan. This opinion is shared by many civilians who fear that the RSF could attack their cities next.
The RSF tends to loot houses, markets and banks and subject women to sexual violence in every city it conquers.
“All citizens want al-Burhan removed. He is the reason that all cities and provinces fall to the RSF,” said Yousif Ibrahim*. “I still don’t understand why the army just left Wad Madani. Wad Madani is the place where so many displaced people from Khartoum sought refuge.”
Hamid Khalafallah, a Sudanese analyst and doctoral student at the University of Manchester where he studies democratic transitions in Africa, said most of the army's traditional supporters felt betrayed.
He added that his father fled Wad Madani on Sunday, but soldiers urged him to return after claiming they had defeated the RSF. The next day, his father fled again when the RSF stormed the city.
“Military troops are coming [nearby towns] “We advised people to return… what the military did led to a feeling of betrayal,” Khalafallah told Al Jazeera. “People [in this region] will not support the RSF, but they feel lost. They don’t know who to turn to now.”
Coup?
A week before Wad Madani fell to the RSF, a former army officer told Al Jazeera that most generals viewed al-Burhan as a weak leader. However, he stressed that no one would overthrow him in order to maintain a strong chain of command for the duration of the war.
“As soon as the war ends, Burhan is gone,” the former officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals, told Al Jazeera.
Al-Burhan may be more vulnerable following the fall of Wad Madani, according to two Sudanese journalists who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
“There have been some movements in the army, but no one knows exactly what is going on,” a journalist with close contacts with the security services told Al Jazeera.
Another Sudanese journalist said the army generals did not remove him because they could not agree on who should replace him.
“You need someone with experience, charisma and [who is] not spoiled. It is difficult to combine these three into one,” the journalist told Al Jazeera.
Desperate attempt?
Over the course of the war, al-Burhan has attempted, with some success, to portray himself as Sudan's de facto head of state. As a result, experts say any attempt to remove him could damage the army's political influence over the RSF, which is still widely viewed as an irregular militia in most Arab and Western states.
“Even if [generals] “If we have managed to avoid a split in the army, any change in leadership risks shaking the army's external relations at a very sensitive time or looking like an act of desperation,” said Alan Boswell, an expert on the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group, a non-profit organization committed to ending and preventing conflicts worldwide.
Confluence Advisory's Khair adds that al-Burhan remains the perfect scapegoat for an army on the verge of losing complete control of Sudan.
“Al-Burhan has a lot of public anger on him… and frankly there will be a lot more public anger if things continue the way they are going.” [military].”
Khair also said that generals loyal to former President Omar al-Bashir and members of Sudan's Islamic movement could overthrow al-Burhan if the RSF captures towns such as Atbara and Shendi.
Both Nile cities are home to military and political elites who have ruled Sudan since its independence in 1956.
“Al-Burhan is the perfect scapegoat… but now is not the time to get rid of him,” Khair told Al Jazeera. “Army officers could wait for the RSF to take a place like Shendi and then sacrifice it.”
“I feel like his days are numbered.”
* Some names have been changed to protect individuals from reprisal.