Joe Biden It is wrong not to recognize the nuclear threats Wladimir Putin Focusing on the wrong scenario. In fact, it is “very likely” that the Tsar could launch a nuclear attack against a member country Born. This is the meaning of the worrying article by Peter Schroeder, former CIA analyst and Russian foreign policy expert at the Center for a New American Security, just published on the website of Foreign Affairs magazine. An analysis that casts a dark shadow over a possible escalation of the war of aggression unleashed by Russia against Ukraine.
“We have no indication that Putin intends to use weapons of mass destruction, let alone nuclear weapons,” U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in January. The use of the nuclear arsenal was “very unlikely,” Avril Haines, director of national intelligence and former head of the Langley Agency, reiterated a few months later. These are some of the statements quoted in his article and disputed by Schroeder, who believes that even the current head of CIA, William Burns, didn't fully understand Putin's plans. In particular, the American intelligence chief claims that the Russian president uses intimidating rhetoric without any intention of following through on his words.
Biden administration officials and the president himself consider a nuclear strike against the United States to be more credible.Ukraine But according to Schroeder, the most realistic threat would instead be an attack with nuclear weapons against a NATO country, above all Poland. A doomsday scenario that, under the terms of the organization's founding treaty, would draw the entire Western coalition into direct conflict with Russia. “Putin is not afraid of a nuclear stalemate and sees himself as the only one capable of dealing with such a crisis,” the expert summarizes.
According to Schroeder, the possibility of a conventional attack against one of the Atlantic Pact states cannot be ruled out. In this case, Moscow would act quickly, leaving the United States limited room for maneuver. The Kremlin would have concluded that Americans would not be willing to pay a high price for Ukraine, which is rather fundamental in current Russian politics.
The former CIA analyst believes that the nightmare scenario is not “imminent” and therefore it is still possible to intervene to prevent it. To this end, Washington should “pursue policies aimed at undermining Russian decision-making” so that if Putin were to embark on the path of escalation, he would encounter a threat internal resistance. to establish direct contacts With Moscow officials opposed to the tsar's reckless initiatives, this becomes crucial, and even though dialogue between the two countries has been interrupted in recent years, it is time for Schröder to establish a channel of communication with part of the Russian leadership and elite, which also includes neutrals, calling on countries to delegitimize the Kremlin's use of nuclear weapons. However, for the former CIA analyst's plan to work, it should be implemented now. Putin may have already started the countdown.