There was finger-pointing among the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. It involved two of their biggest stars, quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Christian McCaffrey.
“I think Christian should be MVP,” Purdy said after his team beat the Arizona Cardinals. “I really believe that. He does everything for us. Runs the ball well, catches the ball. He does everything. So in my eyes this is an MVP.”
A few hours later, McCaffrey responded on social media.
“He’s wrong,” the running back wrote. “Brock should be the MVP.”
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The 49ers' big MVP debate: Frontrunner Brock Purdy promotes Christian McCaffrey's case
According to BetMGM, Purdy is the favorite at -225 odds to win the Associated Press NFL MVP Award, which will be determined by voting from 50 national media members after the regular season. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who visits Levi's Stadium on Christmas Eve, is next at +600. And McCaffrey makes his own compelling case, moving into third place at BetMGM's odds of +700 as of Wednesday.
The last 10 MVP winners were quarterbacks. This is the longest winning streak by a position group in the award's history and reflects the position's growing importance in a sport that has evolved to emphasize the passing game. But before that decade-long run, running backs also enjoyed their time in the sun, winning MVP seven times in the 20 seasons between 1993 and 2012.
So how does McCaffrey's season compare statistically to running backs' MVP campaigns over the last three decades? How does Purdy's season compare to that of the QBs who won the award? And while there is precedent for a co-MVP award (it has happened twice since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970), what does history tell us about how voters might reconcile the fact that Purdy and McCaffrey are for play the same offense?
McCaffrey's growing statistical case
It's a pass-happy era in the NFL, so McCaffrey's rushing performance stands out. His 1,292 rushing yards give him a huge lead over the rest of the field. Buffalo Bills running back James Cook ranks second with 968 yards, a performance just 75 percent of McCaffrey's. Additionally, McCaffrey also leads the league at his position with 509 receiving yards.
Let's take McCaffrey's performances, project them over the entire regular season, and compare them to the seven running backs who have won MVP honors in the last 30 seasons.
30 years of RBs and MVP wins
| Run back | Rush Yds | YPC | Rec Yds | Total length Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1,486 | 5.3 | 414 | 1,900 | 10 | |
2,053 | 6.1 | 305 | 2,358 | 14 | |
2,008 | 5.1 | 217 | 2,225 | 23 | |
1,359 | 5.4 | 830 | 2,189 | 26 | |
1,880 | 5.2 | 78 | 1,958 | 28 | |
1,815 | 5.2 | 508 | 2,323 | 31 | |
2,097 | 6.0 | 217 | 2,314 | 13 | |
1,569* | 5.3 | 618* | 2,187* | 24* |
*Indicates pace for this season at 17 games. Other running backs listed played in 16-game seasons.
McCaffrey's overall scrimmage performance is on pace to surpass that of the two MVP winners mentioned above: Emmitt Smith of the Dallas Cowboys in 1993 and Shaun Alexander of the Seattle Seahawks in 2005.
Perhaps most notably, McCaffrey is on pace to achieve a feat similar to that of the St. Louis Rams' Marshall Faulk in 2000. Herein lie the most apt parallels to the 49ers' situation, because those “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams – like these 49ers – featured legitimate MVP candidates at both quarterback and running back. In fact, Rams QB Kurt Warner won the award in 1999 and 2001, while Faulk — a dual-threat McCaffrey wanted to emulate as a kid — took home the hardware in 2000.
While Faulk finished second to Warner in 1999 and 2001, there is a statistical precedent for winning MVP that fits well with McCaffrey's 2023 resume.
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Purdy's meteoric rise in efficiency
Of course, none of the aforementioned running backs who won the award did so in a vacuum. Each of them competed with quarterbacks who finished second in MVP voting those seasons. It's obvious that the strength of a given quarterback's season directly impacts a given running back's chances of winning the award.
For simplicity, we use adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) to measure and represent the efficiency of QB play. As you will see below, ANY/A is closely related to the MVP award. The formula behind the stat combines yards per attempt, touchdowns, interceptions and even sacks.
Top QBs in RB MVP seasons
| QB | ANY/A | MVP | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
7.6 | Emmitt Smith | 1993 | |
6.9 | Favre and Barry Sanders (co-MVP) | 1997 | |
8.5 | Terrell Davis | 1998 | |
4.8 | Marshall Faulk | 2000 | |
8.0 | Shaun Alexander | 2005 | |
7.6 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2006 | |
7.9 | Adrian Peterson | 2012 | |
9.6 | Still open | 2023 |
All quarterbacks from those seven seasons finished second in the MVP voting, with the exception of Brett Favre, who shared the 1997 MVP with Barry Sanders after both players had 18 votes. All second-place QBs finished in the top three of the ANY/A season, with the exception of Donovan McNabb of the Philadelphia Eagles, who finished 25th among qualifiers in that category – but still received 11 MVP votes behind Faulk's 24 votes . That's obviously a massive outlier, explained at least in part by the fact that McNabb led an Eagles team without a 1,000-yard receiver or a 1,000-yard rusher (McNabb led Philadelphia with 629 rushing yards) to an 11-5 record.
Interestingly, the highest ANY/A mark in that 2000 season went to Warner – who had won the MVP in 1999 and would win it again in 2001. But Warner missed five games with a broken hand midway through the season, which helped open the door for Faulk to win. (Interestingly, 49ers QB Jeff Garcia led all QBs who started a full season in 2000 with 7.3 ANY/A, but he received no MVP votes.)
The biggest advantage, however, lies in the bottom tier of this table: Purdy's season was far more efficient than that of any QB runner-up in seasons where running backs won the MVP.
In fact, Purdy is posting the second-highest ANY/A of all time, trailing only Peyton Manning's 2004 mark for the Indianapolis Colts.
The best complete seasons of all time in NFL history
Quarterbacks shaded gray won the MVP that season.
The best ANY/A mark for leading the league in a season and missing out on the MVP goes to Randall Cunningham of the Minnesota Vikings, who finished with 8.5 ANY/A and 14 votes in 1998. Denver Broncos running back Terrell Davis won the award with 25 votes this season. Davis played for coach Mike Shanahan, whose son Kyle Shanahan is McCaffrey's coach this season.
It's impossible to separate Purdy and McCaffrey statistically because football is a team sport and the relationship between them — and the 49ers' roster of skill position weapons that also includes receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle — is obviously mutually beneficial. And that's why it's important to appreciate how good the 49ers' passing offense was overall.
The chart above is based on Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback. What the 49ers are doing is historic. In fact, Purdy's EPA per dropback matches Aaron Rodgers' best mark in 15 years for the Green Bay Packers in 2011. That's so far back Ben Baldwin's EPA database goes.
The 49ers also appear to have a good chance of becoming the second team in NFL history to field a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,500-yard rusher and three 1,000-yard receivers. Only the 2004 Colts, who boasted Manning's NFL record of 9.8 ANY/A, have accomplished this. Aiyuk already has 1,090 receiving yards, while Kittle and Samuel have 865 and 787 receiving yards, respectively, for the 49ers this season. Their pursuit of the 1,000-yard mark will determine whether Purdy's 49ers join Manning's Colts in this rare game.
Brock Purdy is close to 4,000 yards passing, Christian McCaffrey has surpassed 1,000 yards rushing and the 49ers could finish with three 1,000-yard receivers. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
That outstanding performance in Indianapolis in 2004 led to Manning not only winning the NFL MVP award, but also the AP's NFL Offensive Player of the Year award – although his teammate, running back Edgerrin James, won that season Gained 2,303 yards from scrimmage. Undoubtedly, there has long been a bias toward quarterbacks in these awards. Although 49ers receiver Jerry Rice scored an astonishing 23 touchdowns in just 12 games in a season shortened by a players' strike, Broncos quarterback John Elway won the 1987 MVP title over Rice – whose candidacy was likely hurt because he shared the vote with the 49ers QB tied Joe Montana (Elway, Rice and Montana finished with 36, 30 and 18 votes, respectively). Additionally, a pass catcher has never won the MVP award.
But Rice won the Offensive Player of the Year award in 1987, just as Faulk won it in 1999 and 2001, when he finished second for MVP behind teammate Warner.
That combination of MVP and Offensive Player of the Year could be the most likely outcome this season for Purdy and McCaffrey, two teammates who are both the main drivers of such a high-powered 49ers offense.
And it's important to note that a tie for MVP, as was the case in 1997 (between Favre and Sanders) and 2003 (between Manning and Tennessee Titans QB Steve McNair), is also technically possible. This is, of course, an unlikely outcome, as it would require an exact split of votes between Purdy and McCaffrey.
But wouldn't that be something?
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(Top photo: Ryan Kang / Associated Press)
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