Russian and Ukrainian Presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky recently held their respective major annual press conferences, taking stock of a difficult year and setting their priorities for 2024.
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Here's what we can expect next year from this nearly two-year-long war, the two leaders said:
war of attrition
Mr. Zelensky returned to the failure of the summer counteroffensive: lack of ammunition and lack of air superiority. The shortcomings remain as the war of attrition begins again with the resumption of the Russian initiative.
“We need support because we simply have no ammunition,” the Ukrainian president noted, but declined to say more about his defensive army’s plans for 2024.
Vladimir Putin said he was pleased that his troops were “improving their positions almost along the entire line of contact.” Admitting the existence of a Ukrainian bridgehead on the southern bank of the Dnieper, he assured that Kiev troops there would be “annihilated” under Russian artillery fire.
West fatigue
Mr. Putin, whose re-election in March appears certain, also expects a decline in Western aid to Ukraine, which is the subject of political disputes in Europe and the United States. For him, there is a risk that this support is coming to an end and “it seems that little by little it is coming to an end”.
For his part, Mr. Zelensky said he was confident that aid would continue to arrive and that the United States would “not betray” his country.
However, he said he fears a change in policy in Washington if Donald Trump returns to power.
“If the policy of the next president, whoever he is, is different, colder or more frugal towards Ukraine, then I think these signals will have a very strong influence on the course of the war,” he warned.
Lack of men
As the shortage of soldiers on the front lines becomes more glaring, Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned an army plan that calls for the mobilization of “450,000 to 500,000 additional people” in 2024 without commenting.
To make up for the ammunition shortage, he said he wants to produce “a million drones next year.”
Vladimir Putin estimated that a new mobilization after the unpopular one in September 2022 was “not necessary.” According to him, Russia managed to voluntarily recruit 486,000 soldiers into the army in 2023, an effort that is expected to continue.
He also vowed to further strengthen the army's military capabilities, as Russia has focused its economy on the war effort and is suspected of receiving large quantities of ammunition from North Korea.
No negotiations
Mr. Putin insisted that peace would only be possible if Moscow's goals were achieved, namely “the denazification of Ukraine, its demilitarization and its neutral status.”
According to him, Moscow and Kiev “agreed” on these criteria right at the beginning of the conflict during initial negotiations in Istanbul, but the talks were then broken off.
“There are other options, either reaching an agreement or using force to solve the problem. That is what we will strive for,” he said.
Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his goal of regaining control of all Russian-occupied territories, including Crimea, annexed in 2014. “The strategy cannot be changed,” he warned.
He also ruled out any negotiations with Moscow. “It’s not relevant today. I don't see any request from Russia regarding this. I don't see it in his actions. “I see nothing but impudence in the rhetoric,” he said.
What result?
Vladimir Putin uncompromisingly promised the Russians that “victory will be ours.”
In his opinion, Russia has accumulated enough “security margin” to “move on.” Russian society is “strongly consolidated” and the economy has “a reserve of strength and stability.”
Volodymyr Zelensky called on Ukrainians not to lose their “resistance”. He also stressed that it is not known whether the war will end in 2024: “I don’t think anyone knows the answer.”