49ers and Ravens face a historically strong duel on Christmas Eve – The Athletic

SANTA CLARA, Calif. – The San Francisco 49ers host the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Eve, and the numbers suggest it will be one of the best matchups in NFL regular season history.

Defense Adjusted Value Above Average (DVOA), a team efficiency metric that takes into account strength of schedule, has expanded its database to 1981. The 49ers, who have played every team since then, are ranked No. 3 and the Ravens are No. 11 in DVOA. Based on team odds, only the 2007 Week 9 game between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts was statistically more exciting after Week 7 than the Christmas Eve game at Levi's Stadium.

Tom Brady's Patriots beat Peyton Manning's Colts 24-20 in this game. How will Monday night's game turn out with the 49ers' Brock Purdy and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, the current betting favorites for the NFL MVP award?

Here's a breakdown of the DVOA matchup. Higher positive percentages indicate better performance on offense and special teams, while lower negative percentages indicate better performance on defense.

Ravens vs. 49ers: Efficiency matchup

There are three glaring differences between them in this table. Two of them prefer the Ravens, but the third is clearly leaning towards the 49ers.

Baltimore's No. 1 rushing offense will face an 18th-ranked 49ers run defense that is coming off an ugly performance in Arizona. The Cardinals took advantage of 16 missed tackles from the 49ers and gained 234 yards on 30 carries – 7.8 yards per rush – against them.

On Thursday, edge rusher Nick Bosa expressed confidence that the 49ers could bolster their run defense for this big challenge against Jackson, leading Ravens running back Gus Edwards, a 238-pounder who has replaced the injured Keaton Mitchell as Baltimore's first stringer.

“Obviously everyone is grinding this time of year,” Bosa said. “You feel different every week. There were definitely a few games last week that we would have liked to play again and it would have looked a lot better on the stat sheet. But we watched the video and don't think it was as bad as the stat sheet said. So we’ll just move on to the next step and learn from it as best we can.”

The Ravens' second clear advantage is on special teams, where they rank 8th in DVOA, while the 49ers – who are missing top injured returnee Ray-Ray McCloud III – are stuck at 24th.

All-time All-Pro kicker Justin Tucker beat the 49ers with a late field goal the last time these two teams met in 2019. Earlier this month, Baltimore beat the Los Angeles Rams in overtime when Ravens receiver Tylan Wallace returned a punt 76 yards for a touchdown – a walk-off winner. The 49ers haven't returned a punt for a touchdown since 2011, when Ted Ginn Jr. scored in the season opener against the Seattle Seahawks.

What advantage of the 49ers can counteract these supposed disadvantages?

The answer lies in their offense, which is a whopping 36.9 percent above the NFL average according to DVOA. Only two Brady-led Patriots teams have posted higher scores through 14 games.

For further perspective, the 49ers' offense posts a DVOA that is more than twice the league average than the Ravens' – despite Baltimore's offense ranking 4th in the NFL.

A focus will then be on Purdy and his extensive arsenal of skill position weapons working against the Ravens' defense, which leads the NFL with 50 sacks.

“I think it's a big game for everyone because there's not just one way (in which the Ravens excel),” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday. “They lead the league in sacks, so you immediately think of our O-line. That's true because they have good pass rushers. But that also has a lot to do with how well our receivers can get to their spots and get open, Brock getting it in the right spots and the guys not getting rerouted so they can't get there in time. So if you play solid, good defense with good players everywhere, it’s a little bit of everything.”

Baltimore safety Kyle Hamilton, who stands 6-foot-3, is a particularly versatile player who could be well-suited to challenge the 49ers' adaptable weapons, highlighted by running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver Deebo Samuel. Hamilton started in several positions. He recorded two interceptions, three sacks and 76 tackles.

“Watching him in their scheme and just seeing what a good football player he is, anytime you play that long and can run, it gives you a lot of benefits,” Shanahan said. “But he also fits their mentality as he plays physically and has the size to do a lot of things, but also the feet and the length to handle.”

Baltimore's defensive mentality is based on attacking early.

“They're the No. 1 first-quarter defense in the NFL because they surprise you with how they hit you in the face,” 49ers tight end George Kittle said Friday. “I have a lot of respect for it.”

The 49ers appear to be particularly focused on Ravens linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen, mirroring 49ers stars Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw at the position.

“They remind us of our linebackers,” Purdy said Friday, “in terms of the intensity and the way they fly around.”

Shanahan said: “I think they are the most comparable to our guys that I've seen this year and a few years before. For me, those two guys take care of the defense. You are tall. They can run and they can punch. Not just because they are big, but because their intentions are that way. You can tell that they enjoy playing football. They are also very smart players. They have good coverage. They are two of the better zone players in the league and also two of the better man-to-man players.

“Well, they’re as good as it gets.”

49ers vs Ravens predictions

Matt Barrows: The 49ers are at the top – at the very top – to play big matches. Just ask the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. However, I don't expect a slip-up in this game like we did in Weeks 5 or 13, as the Ravens' offensive strength, their running game, happens to correlate with a weakness in the 49ers, considering the inability of defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave are. t 100 percent. If the Ravens can run the ball, they can keep the game close. This could come down to a field goal from Tucker or Jake Moody. You can probably tell which guy I picked.

David Lombardi: Hargrave returned to practice on Friday, which should be a nice boost for the 49ers. But this game could come down to what the 49ers have been focusing on: the linebacker game. There will be several excellent players on the field at the position. But Warner and Greenlaw, playing on their home field a week before their poor performance in Arizona, will prevail.

(Photos by Nick Bosa and Gus Edwards: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today and Mike Carlson / Getty Images)

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