During their summit Thursday and Friday in Versailles, European Union leaders will consider Ukraine’s application for membership.
Will this summit be a European leap forward? Gathered at Versailles, the leaders of the twenty-seven should discuss how the European Union can fulfill its obligations in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Like last time on February 24, the meeting promises to be emotional. But the general state of mind right now is that you have reached a milestone. “Russia’s aggressive war represents a tectonic shift in European history,” the draft declaration says.
The heads of state and government of the Union will condemn Russia’s actions, call for their cessation and opening access for humanitarian assistance. They also need to assess the impact of European sanctions. Under pressure from the eastern and central countries, additional measures will be discussed. This is “necessary and beneficial,” they assure us, while specifying that no solution is expected. Moreover, a new package of sanctions has just been adopted. Three Belarusian banks will be disconnected from Swift, 160 people, including 14 oligarchs, will be blacklisted by the EU. In the financial sector, Europeans will limit the use of cryptocurrencies used to circumvent existing sanctions. As for the reception of two million Ukrainians who have now fled their country, this discussion will be held without tension. “We are still in a very busy phase of admissions. At the moment, everyone is supporting,” the diplomat notes.
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The real difficulties will arise on Thursday evening when it comes to the consideration of applications for EU membership submitted by Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. All eyes are mostly riveted on Kiev. Everyone agrees to send a signal of hope, to show that Ukraine belongs to the European family. Earlier this week, ambassadors from 27 countries formally asked the European Commission to review the three countries’ requests. The decision was made in less than a week against a few months at the usual time, the diplomat insists, adding that “therefore, this is already an accelerated procedure.”
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But the “twenty-seven” will have to go further and give political guidance to the Commission. Should all three queries be parsed at the same time? Go faster? What to do with countries that are already candidates (Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey)? The divisions are strong, reflecting “different histories, opinions and attitudes within the EU towards enlargement,” says SWP researcher Ilke Toigür.
Very long process
A group of eight countries, led by Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria, supports Kyiv’s actions and wants to act quickly. Others are slowing down, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and also France. “Today there is no question of membership,” emphasizes Yeliseysky, pointing out that the priority will be to help these countries after the war. And in order to bring them closer to the Union, there is an idea to create a new status of privileged partner. In any case, the membership process is very long. And nothing, or little, plays in favor of the new expansion.
The war in Ukraine will affect the debate about Europe’s energy independence, the future of its defense and its economic possibilities. But the approach here is “with a long-term perspective,” sums up Eric Maurice of the Schuman Foundation. As far as energy is concerned, discussions should be lively. “There is a clear desire to get out of dependence on Russian energy carriers,” but there are many nuances, in particular, about the advisability of imposing an embargo on Russian gas and oil, the European diplomat explains. On this issue, as on others, “we should not expect a catalog of specific and quantitative measures. European leaders will define the main lines of action that need to be refined and implemented in the coming weeks and months,” warns Eric Maurice.