A Su-34 of the Russian Air Force.
Russian state media
Two days after shooting down three of the Russian Air Force's top fighter-bombers in a deadly missile attack south of Kherson, the Ukrainian claimed he had shot down a fourth fighter-bomber. He overoccupied Mariupol.
That's four Sukhoi Su-34s in three days, a weekly loss rate that is one of the worst yet for the Russian air force, 22 months after the start of Russia's larger war against Ukraine.
And things could get even worse for the Russians. The Ukrainian Air Force is set for a major modernization in the form of former Dutch Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter jets.
The Ukrainian Air Force fired on these three Su-34s around midday on Friday south of the Dnipro River in southern Kherson Oblast. The Sukhois reportedly flew at high altitude and positioned themselves to drop satellite-guided glide bombs on the Ukrainian bridgehead in Krynky on the otherwise Russian-controlled left bank of the Dnipro.
It is unclear how the Ukrainians shot down these three twin-engine, two-seat Sukhois on Friday, reportedly killing most of the pilots on board. However, it is worth noting that Germany recently delivered a Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery, the third to Ukraine.
A Patriot PAC-2 missile has a range of up to a hundred miles under optimal conditions, making it Ukraine's furthest-flying air defense missile. A Patriot battery located well behind the front line in Kherson can easily hit a Russian glide bomber at its furthest launch point, about 25 miles from a target on the Dnipro.
The three confirmed recent Su-34 kills – four if you count Sunday's claimed shootdown – bring the number of fighter-bombers the Russians have lost over Ukraine to 25 or 26, out of a total pre-war fleet probably 25 fewer than 150 aircraft.
The Su-34 is the Russian Air Force's best fighter-bomber and the only type in the Russian inventory that has the combination of sensors, avionics and intelligent weaponry that allows it to detect and attack pop-up targets at short notice.
The Russian Air Force “is almost certainly committed to minimizing further losses of these expensive and complex aircraft,” noted Justin Bronk, Nick Reynolds and Jack Watling in a November 2022 study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.
When RUSI published the study, the Russians had lost just 17 Su-34s. Now that they have lost up to 26 of the $50 million jets – almost a fifth of the fleet – the Russians' concern is undoubtedly much greater.
It is not for nothing that after the Ukrainians attacked three Sukhois on Friday, the Russian Air Force Reportedly stopped– at least temporarily – glide bombing attacks on Ukraine's Dnipro bridgehead.
The Novosibirsk-based aircraft manufacturer Chkalov Aviation Plant produces only a handful of new Su-34s annually. Moscow cannot sustain its current loss rate, let alone a potentially higher loss rate when Ukraine's new F-16s enter combat in the coming weeks.
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