The recent massacres in Mexico have made public security an unavoidable issue of strategic importance during the election campaign. If there is one failure that can be attributed to the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, it is the violence that is rampant throughout the country and that in recent weeks has left two tragedies of enormous importance in the minds of citizens, namely the five murdered medical students of Celaya on December 3 and the massacre of eleven young people enjoying a posada in Salvatierra last weekend, both in the state of Guanajuato. Of course, these are not the only murders, the country still counts almost 100 a day and the matter has allowed the opposition to reverse the president's maxim: the Alliance candidate, Xóchitl Gálvez, now repeats that “politics is careless. “From hugging criminals and shooting young people.” Insecurity will be the big theme of the campaign heading into the June 2024 elections.
“It is ugly,” says María Eugenia Valdés Vega, an expert in political processes at UAM Iztapalapa, to approach these issues with electoral fervor, “because they leave a feeling of apathy among voters, especially among the youngest, “but it is in Order.”, because that is democracy.” “The Morena candidate must deal intensively with this matter, including at the local level,” warns the professor. He's right, violence can be the obstacle in Claudia Sheinbaum's supposedly smooth path.
For many years, Mexicans have viewed organized crime as the country's biggest problem. And they don't just say it because it's a real concern, but they feel it every day, the shots can be heard everywhere and closer and closer. Surveys show that people feel vulnerable. “Since the time of Felipe Calderón and also during this six-year term, citizens see insecurity as the main problem. “During the pandemic years, there was only one moment when the economy and employment were doing badly,” explains Heidi Osuna, director of the Enkoll opinion research institute. “It is likely,” he says, “that violence will be an important factor in the election campaign when people realize that there is a candidate who is making a different formal proposal when the majority usually does not,” he says.
The candidates cannot publicly express concrete government programs for the time being, but their plans are visible between the lines and the opposition always puts the issue of uncertainty first. Gálvez reiterates that this is the greatest evil to be combated and has not wasted a moment in blaming the president for his lack of results in this matter, as well as for his mistakes in trying to agitate the recent attacks justify, which he always attributes to drug use. Particular focus is on Guanajuato, as if the rest of the country were not burning in the same flames. For now, the PAN candidate emphasizes the need to strengthen new agreements with the United States, as well as her confidence in new technologies to eliminate the problem.
National Guard members guard the city of Texcaltitlán, Mexico state, on December 11. Felipe Gutierrez (EFE)
In 2018, López Obrador achieved victory with a different proposal than that of his forebears: the idea, summarized in the phrase “hugs not bullets,” was that many civilians had died in the battles against the mafia bosses without reaching the target Achieve to eradicate violence, something that can only be achieved, the President always says, by laying the gunpowder in the foundations, that is, by addressing the structural problems of poverty and lack of training and employment among young people, the main perpetrators and Sacrificing a, tackles country armed to the teeth. But all this has not yielded the expected results and the statistics are stubborn in this regard. No one can deny that violence is consuming the entire country and that organized crime has taken over large parts of the territory and its economy.
Mexico City is one of the few oases of peace, as security experts call them, that the country offers, and yet bullets can still be heard from time to time. The Moreno candidate for the government of the capital was initially Omar García Harfuch, until then police chief of the city government. The message was simple, it reassured neighbors while helping the government achieve some success in this area. But Harfuch fell out of the limelight in favor of his partner Clara Brugada, and the issue of security gave way to Moreno's big bet before voters: “The poor first.”
“The opposition's main point of attack on the government in the election campaign is security, an issue where the official statistics themselves recognize that what was desired has not been achieved.” We all wanted more security and the truth is that this has not happened . People applaud other things, but the opposition has the opportunity to exploit this problem,” says Valdés Vega.
Although there are places where the economy and the lack of work remain the most highlighted shortcomings in surveys, at the national level insecurity reigns supreme. “In Guanajuato, for example, the word homicide has long been placed above other crimes that are reported, such as house robbery,” Osuna says. The following surveys are intended to determine the extent to which citizens are discouraged by the recent wave of violence and their own sense of insecurity. But this will undoubtedly be a sensitive issue in the election campaign.
Days ago, the opposition qualified its attacks on Morena, understanding that there are policy areas such as social welfare or the economy in general that it is better not to touch, otherwise they would not find an echo among the people, do not provoke rejection and lose voters. The uncertainty has left Xóchitl Gálvez with a great advantage. They know that this is a delicate and devastating matter for everyone and they have the opportunity to complain to the President of the Government who is responsible for a strategy that has not borne fruit. López Obrador, the big rock against which the opposition candidates are colliding, offers a gap into which the wedge can be driven. Perhaps Claudia Sheinbaum needs to disclose the data she obtained in the city, where security has always been listed as an approved topic, and perhaps Harfuch, who works on her team, is the only ace up her sleeve that will divert attention from this horror one Matter that tarnishes Mexico's image and exposes the great Achilles heel of the changes suspected by the government
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