The Detroit Lions won a division championship for the first time since 1993 on Sunday. Dan Campbell's team captured the NFC North title in dramatic fashion, defeating the Minnesota Vikings 30-24.
Winning the division ensures the Lions will play at least one postseason game at Ford Field, and it remains possible for Detroit to secure a bye and home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. If the San Francisco 49ers lose to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night, the Lions and Niners will be 11-4 with two games left.
The 49ers would win the tiebreaker, but if San Francisco lost another game and Detroit won, the Lions would take the bye. As you'll soon see, that's not a likely scenario, but the Lions also just won their first league title in 30 years. Everything is possible.
As for the rest of the NFL, there was a lot of movement in the playoff picture in Week 16. Let's take a look at where things stand, as there are still three games left on Monday.
The odds listed to make the playoffs, earn the No. 1 seed, and win the Super Bowl are all based on The Athletic's NFL betting model, developed by Austin Mock.
AFC playoff image
| seeds | team | Record | Result week 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
x–1 | 11-3 | (TBD) vs. SF | |
x–2 | 11-4 | W vs DAL | |
3 | 9-5 | (TBD) vs LV | |
4 | 8-7 | L vs TB | |
5 | 10-5 | W vs. HOU | |
6 | 9-6 | W vs LAC | |
7 | 8-7 | L vs ATL |
x – Secure spot in the playoffs | z – Secured division title
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback Lamar Jackson has a single playoff win, with the Ravens averaging 13 points in his four games, so that will be a question mark in a few weeks. But if Jackson plays well in a win against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday, it should go a long way toward alleviating some of those concerns.
Remaining schedule: at 49ers, against Miami Dolphins, against Pittsburgh Steelers
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | Deserve release: 52.6 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 14.3 percent
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Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins just picked up their first big win of the season on Sunday against the Cowboys, with a thrilling, game-winning drive just before the buzzer. That's huge, not only for a team looking for seeding, but also as the Dolphins work to build confidence ahead of the playoffs. Now they are in position to capture the No. 1 seed if they can win in Baltimore on Sunday.
Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Buffalo Bills
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | Earn free money: 32 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 12.7 percent
The Chiefs haven't beaten a team with a winning record since defeating the Dolphins on Nov. 5 in London. They'll have a chance to put that problem to rest next Sunday against the Bengals, but they'd want a win like that against a backup. Does the quarterback have a lot of weight? The Chiefs look vulnerable early in the postseason.
Remaining schedule: against Las Vegas Raiders, against Cincinnati Bengals, at the Los Angeles Chargers
Opportunities: Reaching the playoffs: 99.7 percent | To earn: 11.9 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 12 percent
The Jags are reeling from four straight losses and quarterback Trevor Lawrence's injuries are mounting every week. Their offensive woes over the last two weeks can be explained by injuries and Lawrence's lack of practice time, but the defense is also faltering, having given up 29.5 points per game during the slide. On the other hand, the Bucs scored three touchdowns after turnovers, so there was a general meltdown.
Remaining schedule: against Carolina Panthers, at the Tennessee Titans
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 68.5 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.7 percent
Quarterback Joe Flacco, sitting on his couch watching football five Sundays ago, has posted three consecutive 300-yard games for the first time in his career. He hasn't had three 300-yard games in a full season since 2016. Simply a remarkable achievement.
Remaining schedule: against the New York Jets, at the Bengals
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | Earn free money: 3.5 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 2.6 percent
Buffalo Bills
The Bills began their three-game winning streak in Kansas City and are shaping up to be as dangerous a team as any team in the AFC. There's also a chance we see the next chapter of the Bills-Chiefs mini-rivalry in the wild card round.
Remaining schedule: at the New England Patriots, at the Dolphins
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 90.1 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 4.9 percent
The Colts laid an egg with a 29-10 loss in Atlanta and are now in a four-way tie with the Texans, Steelers and Bengals. The Colts will almost certainly have to win and hope the tiebreakers are in their favor to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Remaining schedule: against Raiders, against Houston Texans
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 66.3 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1 percent
On the hunt
• Houston Texans (8-7)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
•Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
• Denver Broncos (7-8)
• Las Vegas Raiders (6-8)
Eliminated
• New York Jets (6-9)
• Tennessee Titans (5-10)
• Los Angeles Chargers (5-10)
• New England Patriots (4-11)
NFC playoff picture
| seeds | team | Record | Result week 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
z–1 | 11-3 | (TBD) vs. BAL | |
z–2 | 11-4 | W vs MIN | |
x–3 | 10-4 | (TBD) vs. NYG | |
4 | 8-7 | W vs JAX | |
x–5 | 10-5 | L vs MIA | |
6 | 8-7 | W vs. NO | |
7 | 8-7 | W vs TEN |
x – Secure spot in the playoffs | z – Secured division title
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners' six-game winning streak has come against some formidable opponents, and they've already dispatched the Cowboys and Eagles this season. A win against the Ravens would solidify the 49ers as the team to beat in the playoffs.
Remaining schedule: against Ravens, at Washington Commanders, against Los Angeles Rams
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | Deserve release: 91.8 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 26.5 percent
Detroit Lions
The Lions finally won the NFC North and will host a playoff game for the first time in 30 years. They're also looking for their first postseason win in 32 years – and just their second in the Super Bowl era. And in a sadistically fitting way, they may have to go through fan favorite Matthew Stafford to get it done.
Remaining schedule: at Dallas Cowboys, vs. Minnesota Vikings
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | Up to Earn: 5.6 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.4 percent
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are a prime example of why discussing a team's potential to go undefeated in October is a waste of time. No one could have predicted a three-game losing streak that was accompanied by problems with consistency on offense (16.3 points per game) and a reshuffle of the defensive coaching staff. The Eagles still have three winnable games left before the playoffs, but will have to prove themselves against better competition in January.
Remaining schedule: against New York Giants, against Arizona Cardinals, at Giants
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | To earn: 6.1 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 6.4 percent
The Bucs have won four in a row, but hadn't exactly beaten a tough opponent until they made a statement with a emphatic win against the Jaguars. There won't be much expectation for the Buccaneers – or whoever wins the NFC South – against the NFC East runner-up, but a playoff berth in a rebuilding year after a 4-7 start should be considered a major success in Tampa get ranked.
Remaining schedule: against New Orleans Saints, at Panthers
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 87.5 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.3 percent
Dallas Cowboys
With Sunday's loss at Miami, the Cowboys fell to 2-2 in one-possession games this season and have won just once (Week 13 against the Seahawks) when they trailed after the first quarter. Their lack of success in highly competitive games will continue to be a problem in the playoffs.
Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, at Commanders
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | To earn: 0.5 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 7.5 percent
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Los Angeles Rams
There was little reason to believe the Rams would be in this position at 3-6, but they have won five of six since their bye week and have a chance to play the role of spoilsport if they make this march can continue the season with playoffs.
Remaining schedule: at the Giants, at the 49ers
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 68.4 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.3 percent
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Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks don't score many style points, but they have shown an ability to win close games, including game-winning drives from quarterbacks Geno Smith and Drew Lock in the last two games. If they can get healthier for the playoffs, this physical team that just survived a series of tough opponents will be an unenviable opponent.
Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at the Cardinals
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 67.3 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 0.9 percent
On the hunt
• Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
• Atlanta Falcons (7-8)
• Green Bay Packers (7-8)
• New Orleans Saints (7-8)
• Chicago Bears (6-9)
• New York Giants (5-9)
Eliminated
• Washington Commanders (4-11)
• Arizona Cardinals (3-12)
• Carolina Panthers (2-13)
(Top photo by Jared Goff: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
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