The prisoner exchange that took place between the governments of Venezuela and the United States, which brought the Barbados agreements back on the table and allowed the release of several dozen political activists, was met with incredible bitterness in certain parts of the United States against Chavismo. The main reason: Alex Saab, the Colombian businessman who is friends with the Miraflores Palace, became a diplomat and finally became the international operator of the Madurismo in times of economic sanctions, is free in the end and is nevertheless completely cold-bloodedly confirmed by the Chavismo of the charges against him Accusations.
After spending several months in prison in Florida and being charged with bribery and money laundering after being captured in Cape Verde in 2020, Saab's return to Caracas, which seemed unthinkable just a few weeks ago, is a plus for the ruling party and removes theirs Opponents of great use piece exchange and pressure. Nicolás Maduro achieved what seemed impossible and, as Maryhen Jiménez, doctor of political science and academic at the University of Oxford, noted, “in his confrontation with the United States he shows a new example of political power”.
Voices are again emerging on social networks and in activist groups on WhatsApp that remind him of how much Maduro was underestimated as a player in crucial moments in the negotiations. Saab's release was seen by the ruling party as a prerequisite for the start of any talks on agreed and verifiable elections. In previous agreements, the United States had already made other important concessions to Maduro, notably the release and release of some prisoners accused of corruption, who are his relatives. Energy sanctions against Venezuela were also lifted under some conditions following the Barbados Agreements.
Without denying that there is an atmosphere of “outrage” in civil society over the release of Saab due to the serious allegations made against him, for the political scientist, writer and academic Diego Bautista Urbaneja, the fundamental thing is “that Saab, as.” As a prisoner it had lost all use value. What was left to him was a certain exchange value. He had already told everything he knew, he was questioned, he must have cooperated with the United States justice system and revealed everything. If his extradition freed 30 opposition prisoners, including 12 Americans, the process might have been worth it.”
Urbaneja does not expect very visible consequences that will arise from the release of Saab in the internal order. “The problem we have is the same: achieving political change in peace, through elections and probably through negotiations. “This depends on María Corina Machado, the winner of the primary, being able to participate as a candidate.”
Shortly after the announcements, the opposition presidential candidate herself made a statement indicating that she would be involved in these negotiations. “It is public knowledge that the United States and the Maduro regime have entered into complementary negotiations on the Barbados Roundtable. Although we are not part of it, we are committed to helping achieve the goal of free elections taking place and the interests of Venezuelans being fully represented.”
However, the head of state does not ignore the existing dissatisfaction: “The electoral process is complex and poses numerous threats. Those in power use all their resources to demoralize us; That’s why they are making a criminal who took advantage of our people’s hunger their preferred bargaining chip in the negotiations.”
Julio Castillo, columnist, activist and political analyst, believes that to save the situation it is necessary that the dialogue process does not stall. “The expectations of the United States are one thing, those of the Venezuelan opposition are another,” he says. “The most important thing is that there is an open flow of communication, discussions are taking place, it is a process and negotiations are maintained.”
“It is still too early to draw final conclusions about the immediate benefits of this exchange,” says Jiménez. “It is a mistake to downplay the extent of the release of these 30 political prisoners – some of whom have already been sentenced to severe sentences – as some in the opposition are doing. “As these leaders return to their communities, their influence will be strengthened and their families will experience tremendous relief.”
Jiménez finds María Corina Machado's new tone particularly interesting in the context before her. “This circumstance can be a good thermometer to measure its influence. María Corina has recognized that she is no longer the leader of a niche of radical sectors, but rather is at the forefront of a complex process of national unity that must be gradual but not maximalist. His behavior is different.”
While Machado awaits an answer from the Supreme Court regarding her right to run as a presidential candidate after winning the opposition primaries last October, she limited herself to pointing out that once all her demands are met -the end of the Energy sanctions, the release of Saab and the end of the judicialization of some of his relatives – Nicolás Maduro “would have no excuse” to face them in free, honest and verifiable presidential elections next year in 2024.
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