The Baltimore Ravens scored their most impressive win of the season on Monday night, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 33-19. The win not only makes them look like worthy Super Bowl contenders, but also puts them in a fantastic position in the AFC. At 12-3, they are one game ahead of Miami and have a chance to clinch the top spot in a game against these same Dolphins next week.
Meanwhile, the 49ers' loss leaves them 11-4 and in a three-way tie atop the NFC with the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions. The 49ers won the tiebreaker over both games, but with two games left the Eagles or Lions still have time to make a move.
As for the rest of the NFL, there was a lot of movement in the playoff picture in Week 16. Let's take a look at where things stand at the start of week 17.
The odds listed to make the playoffs, earn the No. 1 seed, and win the Super Bowl are all based on The Athletic's NFL betting model, developed by Austin Mock.
AFC playoff image
| seeds | team | Record | Result week 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
x–1 | 12-3 | W vs SF | |
x–2 | 11-4 | W vs DAL | |
3 | 9-6 | L vs LV | |
4 | 8-7 | L vs TB | |
5 | 10-5 | W vs. HOU | |
6 | 9-6 | W vs LAC | |
7 | 8-7 | L vs ATL |
x – Secure spot in the playoffs | z – Secured division title
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens sent a message in San Francisco, not just on the scoreboard when they beat the 49ers, but also with the way they initiated the physicality throughout the night. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald may have earned some short lists for teams with head coaching vacancies.
Remaining schedule: against Miami Dolphins, against Pittsburgh Steelers
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | Deserve release: 69.5 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 17.2 percent
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins just picked up their first big win of the season on Sunday against the Cowboys, with a thrilling, game-winning drive just before the buzzer. That's huge, not only for a team looking for seeding, but also as the Dolphins work to build confidence ahead of the playoffs. Now they are in position to capture the No. 1 seed if they can win in Baltimore on Sunday.
Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Buffalo Bills
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | Earn release: 28.9 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 13.2 percent
The Chiefs have lost five of eight games and are 2-3 this season against teams that currently have a winning record. While it may seem reckless to write off quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs' resume is not representative of a team poised to win four straight playoff games.
Remaining schedule: against Cincinnati Bengals, at the Los Angeles Chargers
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 98.1 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 9.1 percent
The Jags are reeling from four straight losses and quarterback Trevor Lawrence's injuries are mounting every week. Their offensive woes over the last two weeks can be explained by injuries and Lawrence's lack of practice time, but the defense is also faltering, having given up 29.5 points per game during the slide. On the other hand, the Bucs scored three touchdowns after turnovers, so there was a general meltdown.
Remaining schedule: against Carolina Panthers, at the Tennessee Titans
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 65.9 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.2 percent
GO DEEPER
NFL Week 16 Takeaways: Browns and Joe Flacco do it again; Is it time to consider Lions prospects?
Quarterback Joe Flacco, sitting on his couch watching football five Sundays ago, has posted three consecutive 300-yard games for the first time in his career. He hasn't had three 300-yard games in a full season since 2016. Simply a remarkable achievement.
Remaining schedule: against the New York Jets, at the Bengals
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | To earn: 1.6 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 2.9 percent
Buffalo Bills
The Bills began their three-game winning streak in Kansas City and are shaping up to be as dangerous a team as any team in the AFC. There's also a chance we see the next chapter of the Bills-Chiefs mini-rivalry in the wild card round.
Remaining schedule: at the New England Patriots, at the Dolphins
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 90.3 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 4.7 percent
The Colts laid an egg with a 29-10 loss in Atlanta and are now in a four-way tie with the Texans, Steelers and Bengals. The Colts will almost certainly have to win and hope the tiebreakers are in their favor to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Remaining schedule: against Raiders, against Houston Texans
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 66.4 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 0.9 percent
On the hunt
• Houston Texans (8-7)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
•Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
• Denver Broncos (7-8)
• Las Vegas Raiders (7-8)
Eliminated
• New York Jets (6-9)
• Tennessee Titans (5-10)
• Los Angeles Chargers (5-10)
• New England Patriots (4-11)
NFC playoff picture
| seeds | team | Record | Result week 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
z–1 | 11-4 | L vs BAL | |
x–2 | 11-4 | W vs. NYG | |
z–3 | 11-4 | W vs MIN | |
4 | 8-7 | W vs JAX | |
x–5 | 10-5 | L vs MIA | |
6 | 8-7 | W vs. NO | |
7 | 8-7 | W vs TEN |
x – Secure spot in the playoffs | z – Secured division title
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback Brock Purdy's four interceptions will be in the spotlight following the 49ers' lopsided loss to the Ravens, but another important aspect cannot be overlooked. After falling behind 23-12 with 12:07 left in the third quarter, Purdy completed just 8 of 14 passes for 107 yards and one interception on four scoreless possessions before exiting with an injury. The 49ers' concern was their inability to erase late deficits, and when they fell behind on Monday night, they didn't make much of a difference.
Remaining schedule: at the Washington Commanders against the Los Angeles Rams
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | Deserve release: 74.3 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 25.5 percent
Philadelphia Eagles
It is now clear that nothing will come easy for the Eagles, who have not won a game by more than 8 points since Week 7. While their final two games of the regular season come against non-playoff opponents, they will be personal against former defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon and the Arizona Cardinals before a rematch with the Giants. The quality of the opposition won't be top-notch, but they will be tough games that will serve as a good playoff setup.
Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, at Giants
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | Up to Earn: 22.4 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 7.8 percent
GO DEEPER
The Eagles hold off the Giants and slip as DeVito goes to the bench
Detroit Lions
The Lions finally won the NFC North and will host a playoff game for the first time in 30 years. They're also looking for their first postseason win in 32 years – and just their second in the Super Bowl era. And in a sadistically fitting way, they may have to go through fan favorite Matthew Stafford to get it done.
Remaining schedule: at Dallas Cowboys, vs. Minnesota Vikings
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | To earn: 2.9 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 5.2 percent
The Bucs have won four in a row, but hadn't exactly beaten a tough opponent until they made a statement with a emphatic win against the Jaguars. There won't be much expectation for the Buccaneers – or whoever wins the NFC South – against the NFC East runner-up, but a playoff berth in a rebuilding year after a 4-7 start should be considered a major success in Tampa get ranked.
Remaining schedule: against New Orleans Saints, at Panthers
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 89.1 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.7 percent
Dallas Cowboys
With Sunday's loss at Miami, the Cowboys fell to 2-2 in one-possession games this season and have won just once (Week 13 against the Seahawks) when they trailed after the first quarter. Their lack of success in highly competitive games will continue to be a problem in the playoffs.
Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, at Commanders
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | To earn: 0.5 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 7.8 percent
GO DEEPER
The Cowboys insist confidence is high after their second straight defeat – both on the road
Los Angeles Rams
There was little reason to believe the Rams would be in this position at 3-6, but they have won five of six since their bye week and have a chance to play the role of spoilsport if they make this march can continue the season with playoffs.
Remaining schedule: at the Giants, at the 49ers
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 68.2 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.1 percent
GO DEEPER
Puka Nacua shows why he's in the prime-time offensive ROY conversation as the Rams keep rolling
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks don't score many style points, but they have shown an ability to win close games, including game-winning drives from quarterbacks Geno Smith and Drew Lock in the last two games. If they can get healthier for the playoffs, this physical team that just survived a series of tough opponents will be an unenviable opponent.
Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at the Cardinals
Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 70 percent | To earn: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 0.9 percent
On the hunt
• Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
• Atlanta Falcons (7-8)
• Green Bay Packers (7-8)
• New Orleans Saints (7-8)
• Chicago Bears (6-9)
Eliminated
• New York Giants (5-10)
• Washington Commanders (4-11)
• Arizona Cardinals (3-12)
• Carolina Panthers (2-13)
(Top photo of Lamar Jackson: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
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