International politics promises strong emotions in 2024, with multiple presidential elections that could change the map of bilateral relations, the direction of relevant economies on the global stage and rebalance the balance of power at regional and even global levels. O InfoMoney listed five of the key planned disputes that are expected to move markets and cause volatility in asset prices.
From the definition of the future occupant of the Oval Office in the White House, which could even include the return of the Republican Donald Trump, to a strategic choice of the people of Taiwan under the supervision of China to a practically defined maintenance in the face of Vladimir Putin's rise to power Russia will also have disputes in Mexico and Uruguay this year, which are of interest to Brazil.
Taiwan
Tapei, capital of Taiwan (Photo: Getty Images)
Although Taiwan may not be among the most important countries in the 2024 elections, the future of the small island nation, whose election is scheduled for January 13th, rests solely on the interests of the world's two largest powers: the United States and China.
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The Beijing regime insists on regaining the territory under its “One China” policy and is even considering using force to reintegrate the region, which has been independent since the nationalists commanded by Chiang Kaishek settled there the Chinese revolution.
In a recent article for The Diplomat magazine, Robert Sutter, a professor of international affairs at George Washington University's Elliott School, assessed Taiwan's strategic importance to the United States, recalling China's efforts to undermine American power and influence to consolidate its dominance in Asia.
Another thorny issue is Beijing's attempt to gain dominance in the hightech industries of the future Taiwan is the world's largest supplier of microchips. “Such dominance would make the United States subservient to China from an economic perspective, as this technology is also essential to modern national security from a military perspective,” he wrote.
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According to local press reports, there is increasing evidence that China has attempted to influence public opinion in Taiwan through disinformation campaigns against the current government, particularly targeting younger audiences using the Chinese TikTok network. The app is banned on governmentissued devices.
The election picture reflects these different views and the constant tension in the Taiwan Strait, which is constantly monitored by Chinese warships.
The frontrunner in the polls is current Vice President Lai Chingte (known locally as William Lai) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, the acronym in English), as is current President Tsai Ingwen, who is reaching the end of his second term and can no longer run for office.
The DPP has strengthened relations with the United States, which displeases China, which, although it does not do so openly, supports the opposition represented by the Kuomintang (KMT), which has nominated Hou Yuih as its candidate. As for the diplomatic issue, Yuih's future actions are already clear in the “3 Ds” strategy he proposed: deterrence, dialogue and deescalation. In other words, he argues that the current period of tension is directly linked to the options chosen by the DPP.
A new development in the dispute is the emergence of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), whose candidate Ko Wenje, the popular former mayor of the capital Taipei, is open to the country's independence but has also avoided hostile statements against China.
The party has grown among younger people and is trying to capitalize on discontent with the traditional DPP and KMT by focusing on internal issues such as cost of living, income stagnation and access to housing.
Local analysts attribute the slight preference for the DPP (William Lai would currently have between 35% and 38% of the vote) precisely to the emerging strength of the TPP, which is dividing the opposition to the government. But the ruling party is still suffering political attrition from allegations of sexual harassment against several of its leaders and complaints against labor reforms that Lai pushed for during his time as prime minister between 2017 and 2018.
Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin (Kremlin/Disclosure)
From March 15 to 17, it will be the turn of the Russian Federation to vote for the president, and practically no one is risking a prediction other than the reelection of Vladimir Putin, who has been in power for more than two decades. Putin took over the Russian government as interim president in 1999 after Boris Yeltsin resigned.
He was first elected to office in 2000 and won subsequent elections in 2004, 2012 and 2018. Putin is already the country's longestserving leader since Joseph Stalin, who was general secretary of the Communist Party of the former Soviet Union from 1949 1922 to 1952 and served as Prime Minister from 1941 to 1953.
International analysts and observers have serious doubts about the transparency of the country's electoral process, but the Central Election Commission of Russia (CEC) reported last week that it had so far received applications from 16 candidates for official registration as participants.
According to the rules, candidates can even put forward their names in a dispute if a party nominates but this requires collecting at least 300,000 voter signatures.
In fact, there is no room for resistance from Russia, as almost all critical figures of the current regime are in prison or in exile. For example, the main leader of Putin's opponents, Alexei Navalny, served a prison sentence of more than 30 years, but his whereabouts have been unknown for more than 15 days.
Those who still dare to comment on domestic politics claim that Putin wants to turn the election into a kind of referendum in support of the war in Ukraine, which is expected to last two years in February.
In fact, the government has already announced that the four Ukrainian regions annexed by Moscow, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, will be considered an integral part of Russian territory and their people will be able to vote in March.
According to Portal, Putin's economic challenges to a likely next term are numerous but surmountable. The sanctions imposed on the country after the invasion brought some problems related to labor shortages, inflation and resulting high interest rates, but Putin himself recently said that the economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2023.
Russia shifted its oil exports to destinations such as China and India, used parallel routes and fleets to transport its goods, and even managed to endure the rise in prices caused by the war itself. In November, for example, 961.7 billion rubles (about 10.4 billion US dollars) flowed into the state treasury from energy revenues.
But there are still problems such as the weak ruble against the dollar, high inflation and interest rates that await Putin on the horizon, factors that are helping to reduce the purchasing power of families and that could easily reduce support for his candidacy in March .
Mexico
(Pixabay)
The people of Mexico will go to the polls on June 2, likely to elect the first woman to lead the country in its history.
The favorite is former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, candidate of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), the leftwing party to which current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, belongs.
The AP agency emphasized in a profile that Sheinbaum was trained as an environmental scientist and is on the left side of the ideological spectrum, as he frequently praises López Obrador's speeches against the neoliberal economic policies of previous Mexican presidents and blames them for vast inequality have a high level of violence in the country.
Against Morena's candidate, the Broad Front for Mexico (a coalition that unites the PAN, PRI and PRD parties) launched the candidacy of the senator of indigenous origin Bertha Xóchitl Gálvez. The most recent polls give Sheinbaum a lead of about 20 points.
Samuel García, governor of the border state of Nuevo León, who presented himself as a kind of third way in the civic movement's election, abandoned his candidacy in November after months of slipping in the polls to 10% of voting intentions.
The AMLO government's excellent approval rating over the last five years speaks in favor of the government candidate, which at over 60% is one of the best ratings in the country's history.
The support can also be measured by the recent election results between 2021 and 2023 when Morena expanded his hegemony in state governments and currently holds command of 22 of the 32 provinces, accounting for 68% of the national GDP and 69% of the GDP Population. The opposition governs nine states and the Ecological Green Party (PVE), an ally of Morena, is in power in San Luís Potosí.
In Congress, Morena reduced his majority among the 500 deputies in the 20212024 legislative period, taking 202 seats (previously 252), but can govern with a simple majority thanks to allied parties.
AMLO led a government marked by what he called the country's “Fourth Transformation” (“4T”), implementing reforms in the energy, social and labor sectors, among others. In fact, Sheinbaum has already promised to continue these measures, adding increasing support for energy transition projects and feminist causes.
In the economy, the incumbent president managed to produce the best results. According to the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (Celag), during AMLO's term in office, the poverty rate fell from 41.9% of the population to 36.3%, meaning five million people have left the poverty line since his inauguration.
It may seem small, but this came at a time that included the Covid19 pandemic and the impact of the Ukraine war on public finances. And by comparison, poverty had grown during the presidencies of Enrique Peña (20122016) and Felipe Calderón (20062012).
Since 2022, Mexico has grown by more than 3% per year, with the currency strengthening against the dollar and second only to the Brazilian real in terms of appreciation. And the debt ratio is under control: in 2018 it was 43.6% and in 2023 it was 44%.
Uruguay
Flag of Uruguay (Source: Shutterstock)
One election campaign that will be of particular interest to the Brazilian government is the election campaign in Uruguay, scheduled for October 27th. The retention of current centerright President Luis Lacalle Pou's Multicolor Coalition in power could isolate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the region, especially among Mercosur partners, even more so after the ultraliberal Javier Milei's victory in Argentina last November.
The current government has insisted on relaxing Mercosur rules allowing the signing of a bilateral agreement with China, but has always faced resistance from Brazil and Argentina. The transfer of power in Argentina could be the catalyst for more radical change if the centerright wins again in Uruguay.
Only after the (“internal”) party primaries in June will the candidates for each political force be officially announced. However, since Pou cannot run for a second consecutive term, the bet is that the current presidential secretary, Álvaro Delgado, will be the official candidate. The history teacher and mayor of Canelones, Yamandú Orsi, was supposed to run against him.
An unusual fact is that the interns are scheduled for June 30, in the middle of the Copa América football competition, which could lead to a request for anticipation, since voting is not possible on similar occasions, such as the 2014 World Cup was less than 40%.
The latest polls suggest Orsi is the favorite, with the Broad Front favored by 43% of the population, compared to 18% for Delgado. A victory would mean the return of the Frente Amplio to power, where it was between 2005 and 2020, with two terms for Tabaré Vásquez and one for José “Pepe” Mujica, who has already said he is considering Orsi as his successor.
But political analysts have commented in the local press that there is still a lot of time until the election and that Pou's government is wellrated. In fact, according to a poll conducted by Equipos Consultores in late October, his approval reached 48% of Uruguayans, compared to 32% disapproval.
But how much damage a drug trafficker scandal could cause to the election is still unknown. Fugitive criminal Sebastián Marset shared in a video details of how he managed to obtain a passport from the country to enter the United Arab Emirates. The interview has already brought down two ministers and other senior government members.
Orsi is serving his second term as head of Canelones, Uruguay's second largest department after Montevideo (1.3 million) with almost 600,000 inhabitants Uruguay has a population of just over 3.3 million. The region I govern has high agricultural production and in recent years has received strong investments from technology and pharmaceutical companies, among others.
He also criticized what he believes is the current government's “obsession with shrinking the state” and that the country's foreign policy messaging is too driven by domestic politics.
Delgado has defended the government's various decisions, particularly the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, as well as the responses to the economic impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine. He said that the current government from the left, represented by the Broad Front, had been given “a damaged country” and that they needed to get it back on track.
US
Joe Biden and Donald Trump should repeat the 2020 dispute (Reproduction)
The most anticipated election by all is the one that effectively brings the year of contention to an end: on November 5, the United States will elect its next president. And everything indicates that there will be a repeat of the confrontation between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump. He will still have to travel, give speeches and fundraise for months, but he is a strong favorite to win the Democratic and Republican nominations.
The year begins with the Republicans in the Iowa caucus on January 15th and the New Hampshire primary on January 23rd, officially opening the 2024 presidential campaign. However, Trump's strongest rivals in the party (Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor and former US Ambassador to the United Nations (Nikki Haley) are not in the former President's shadow in the polls.
Trump has doubled down on the bets he made in the victorious 2016 campaign, in his administration, and also in the 2020 race when he lost to Biden: an extreme antiimmigration focus, a valuing of local industries, and everstronger antiimmigrant China rhetoric. But it is also aiming its guns at one of the Biden administration's most sensitive issues: the economy.
For Luiz Cezario, chief economist at Asset 1 Investment, the 2024 American elections will represent a turning point in setting the economic scenario for the US for the rest of this decade.
“Current American fiscal policies are unsustainable and, if not corrected starting in 2025, will lead to a sharp increase in U.S. national debt and drive higher inflation and interest rates in the coming years,” he warned.
He therefore believes that the electoral process that will soon begin in the United States will determine the likelihood that the next American administration will initiate a process of public finance consolidation that points to more sustainable debt dynamics.
In his opinion, the results of the Republican primaries and Biden's decision on his possible candidacy for reelection will be very important events for the prospects of fiscal adjustment in the United States. “We assume that a fight between Biden and Trump would be the worstcase scenario for the American economy, as markets would assess the likelihood of the US making a serious fiscal adjustment starting in 2025 as low,” he argued.
He reminds us that Trump expanded the budget deficit through aggressive tax cuts despite full employment. And the Biden administration, in turn, has been responsible for the current deterioration in public finances, with policies of strong spending growth and concession of tax benefits for investments in the green agenda.
“Therefore, we should expect that an eventual Trump II administration will seek to implement a new agenda of aggressive tax cuts and greater control of public spending. And a new Biden administration would likely maintain fiscal policies based on large expansions in public spending and increases in the tax burden,” he said.
On the other hand, Cezario analyzes that the election of a more moderate Republican candidate or a possible withdrawal of Biden with the election of a Democratic candidate more in the middle of the political spectrum could raise greater hopes that the next administration would aim to reduce the imbalance in the Accounts. This would help reduce fiscal uncertainty in the US and improve the economic outlook for the coming years.
For the Wall Street Journal, in addition to the economic and fiscal challenges, what is at stake on Capitol Hill is the current effort to support allies in two wars (Ukraine and Israel). Not to mention the investigation against his son Hunter, which could even land him in prison.
At least on this criminal front, Trump is also battling a tax fraud case. And his likely candidacy still faces Supreme Court review after a higher court in Colorado found he was unqualified to take part in the January 2021 invasion of the Capitol.
XP Investimentos reminds that the parliamentary dispute is also important in the USA, as the majority in Congress is crucial for the next government's ability to implement its agenda. “The race will be closely contested, and while we believe it is too early to make predictions, early polls show a slight advantage for the Republican Party,” the report said, emphasizing that there are still about 11 months of campaigning ahead and that the scenario is correct could still undergo changes. “In any case, the election year tends to maintain expansionary fiscal policy, leading to high fiscal uncertainties and volatile asset prices.”
Venezuela
Venezuela is also scheduled to hold presidential elections on October 13, 2024, an announcement that was part of the Barbados agreement that allowed the lifting of part of the economic sanctions imposed on the country by the United States. However, the information about the election process so far has proven to be less than transparent.
The natural candidate in this situation is Nicolás Maduro, who has been president since 2012 and has pursued and silenced opposition to the regime since at least 2015. His reelection in 2018 was so controversial that the result was not recognized by anyone, among others the opposition, OAS, European Union, United States and Brazil, then ruled by Michel Temer.
Maduro's biggest opponent is the liberal María Corina Machado. However, despite receiving more than 90% of the vote in the October primaries, the centerright politician cannot currently run for public office as she has lost her political rights due to 15 years by decision of the Comptroller General of the Republic, issued this year. The Venezuelan justice system is largely controlled by Maduro's Bolivarian regime.
A poll published in August by the firm Meganálisis found that 76.1% of respondents would not vote for Maduro in an election. And that Machado, of the Vente Venezuela party, would defeat the Chavista candidate by almost 40 percentage points (50.1% versus 12.1%). For ORC Consultores the lead would be 47.2% compared to 13.5% for the opposition candidate.
While she is still trying to make a decision that will allow her to intervene in the dispute, María Corina used an interview with the Argentine newspaper Clarín to say that she represents freedom for Venezuela, as does President Javier Milei does for Argentina. She said she had a liberal project for a country where “the custom of state paternalism arose.”
The USA is following the development of this case with interest. Answering questions about the U.S.Venezuela prisoner exchange process last week, Joe Biden told reporters: “It seems that so far Maduro is maintaining his commitment to free elections, although he has not yet done so.” The American president predicted “one long road ahead.”
Another focus is the current crisis in the dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo oil region, as an escalation of tensions could disrupt the electoral process.