ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — As the Denver Broncos neared the finish line in negotiations with the Seattle Seahawks for a blockbuster trade for quarterback Russell Wilson in March 2022, general manager George Paton went to new head coach Nathaniel Hackett and asked him to look at the tape of the veteran.
Hackett’s response, according to Paton: “I don’t need to look at the tape. He kicked my ass for many years.”
Perhaps not too much should be made of a playful anecdote told during the euphoria of Wilson's inaugural press conference. As he and Paton made clear, Hackett ultimately digested the film over the quarterback's 10 seasons with the Seahawks, which included nine Pro Bowl invitations. But in hindsight, given Tuesday's news that the Broncos were benching Wilson for the final two games of his second season with the team, it's hard not to see the story as a fitting context for something that was almost certainly considered will go down as one of the worst trades in NFL history.
The Broncos believed that Wilson would be to them what he had always been in Seattle: a quarterback who simply always found a way to win, regardless of the circumstances. They saw the glory, the quarterback hoisting a Lombardi Trophy and being one bad throw away from getting his hands on another. They saw a player whose playoff experience, years of sparkling numbers and veteran leadership could help a team desperately trying to get back to winning ways. The Broncos wanted all of those things so badly that they sent five draft picks, two of them first-rounders, and three players to the Seahawks for Wilson and a fourth-round pick.
Russell Wilson is introduced by Nathaniel Hackett on March 16, 2022. (Hyoung Chang/Getty Images)
They wanted him so badly that they missed the warning signs that his game was on a downward trend.
It was a huge price to pay, even before the Broncos handed the then-33-year-old quarterback a five-year, $245 million contract extension before he had ever thrown a pass in a Broncos uniform. The entire transaction was a major flop — the Broncos went 11-19 in Wilson's 30 starts in Denver — but to pin all of the problems that have plagued the franchise since the trade on Wilson would be completely misguided.
The Broncos wanted everything Wilson had offered the Seahawks so badly that they ignored — or at least rationalized — the clear signs that those who watched the quarterback closely had pointed out for several years in Seattle that his play was declining . The issues that plagued Wilson at the end of his Seahawks career, including a significant decline in mobility that affected his work in and out of pocket, were keenly felt in Denver. Wilson posted the two worst EPA seasons of his career in Denver (expected points added). His 84.4 passer rating in 2022 was the worst of his career and the 98.0 rating he posted this season is his second-worst since 2017.
It's all fallen so far short of the Broncos' expectations. But it's not just the quarterback who hasn't held up his end of the bargain.
Hackett, who was hired less than two months before Wilson's contract was signed, was overwhelmed as a first-year coach, a fact that became clear early in his first season on the job. By trying to combine the offense he helped build in Green Bay for Aaron Rodgers with the parts of the scheme Wilson liked in Seattle, the Broncos instead produced an offense with no discernible identity. The Broncos couldn't protect Wilson with a strong ground game and Denver gave up a franchise-record 63 sacks in 2022 – 55 of which were absorbed by Wilson in his 15 starts. Wilson's footwork weakened under the onslaught of pressure, and his decision-making late in the game – highlighted by a brutal end zone interception in Week 5 against the Indianapolis Colts – became erratic at times.
Fifteen games into the season, following a disastrous performance by Wilson and the Denver offense on Christmas Day that resulted in a stunning loss to the Los Angeles Rams, Hackett was fired. The Broncos had mortgaged much of their future on a franchise quarterback, but his fit with the head coach was inconsistent from the start, despite constant public displays of harmony.
Wilson welcomed the arrival of Sean Payton, the Super Bowl-winning coach who helped Wilson's most respected passer, Drew Brees, create a Hall of Fame-caliber career in New Orleans after he signed him as a free agent in 2006. Payton was confident he could “get Wilson out of the high jump” and put less of the burden on him to attack. The Broncos played cleaner football for long stretches this season than last season. During a five-game winning streak after a 1-5 start, Wilson threw no interceptions and the Broncos took advantage of the field position provided by a ball-hawking defense to dig out of their early hole.
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Sean Payton laments “self-inflicted problems” that have torpedoed the Broncos’ offense
But it was never an offense in which Wilson could thrive or truly play to his strengths. Despite a decline in overall athleticism, Wilson remains a talented playmaker, a quarterback who can make big hits up the field when operating outside of structure. This was clearly evident in Denver's 26:23 loss to the New England Patriots on Christmas Eve. Trailing 23-7 in the fourth quarter, Wilson led the Broncos on two 75-yard touchdown drives and capped both with two-point conversion throws to tie the game. He improvised, moving outside the pocket and finding his receivers deep downfield.
“We picked up the tempo a little bit and the guys made some great plays,” Wilson said.
Wilson came so close this season to suggesting how he thinks the Broncos should play. But Payton's take on the sequence was different.
“A lot of it was empty and backless, and we made some plays,” Payton said, “(but) it’s hard to say that as a base offense that’s how you’re going to make a living.”
Payton wants to play a certain way. He wants a quarterback who can run the ball regularly in the rhythm of his offense. In his opinion, second acts cannot be the first plan. Wilson's bench change is about playing differently. But is it just Wilson's fault that he has to act in a way that doesn't always reflect his strengths?
“Being around Russell, he’s one of the toughest people I’ve ever been around, especially in this sport,” Broncos right tackle Mike McGlinchey said last week. “And obviously no one needs more shit than him. The way he continues to rise above it all and prepare the way he always has, leading our football team and helping prepare us for the playoff round. … I think two and a half months ago you would all have laughed at us. So there are three games left here. Russell is going to do what he’s always done best: he’s going to work his ass off and put us in a position to win games.”
Payton expressed some regret Wednesday about his role in how Wilson's season unfolded.
“There's a part of you, especially myself as a head coach, that feels like, 'Man, I had to get better.'”
The Broncos said Wednesday the move was about finding a spark for an offense that had faltered during the stretch. But this is clearly also about the future. Of course, major financial components also play a role. Wilson already has $39 million guaranteed for 2024, but another $37 million of his 2025 salary is guaranteed for injuries only. It would be completely guaranteed if Wilson was still on the team on matchday five of the next league year in March. An injury to Wilson in the final two games that prevented him from passing a physical at that time would result in the Broncos having to pay the entire salary. In professional sports you can always follow the money.
Sean Payton speaks with Russell Wilson before the game against the Patriots. It appears that this will be the last game Wilson plays for Denver this season. (Isaiah J. Downing / USA Today)
But moving away from Wilson could create more problems than it fixes. Cutting it would mean $85 million in dead money. With an appointment made after June 1, it could be spread out over the next two seasons, but such a move would still put a strain on Denver's books and potentially require the departure of other key players and their contracts. The Broncos don't have a wealth of young, inexpensive talent in large part because the trades for Wilson and Payton wiped out a total of three first-round picks for Denver in the last two years. The Broncos desperately need more speed to complement their quarterback.
Not to mention who will replace Wilson when he has indeed played his last game with the Broncos. Payton believes Jarrett Stidham is a “rising” quarterback, and perhaps these last two games will make that clear, but he has only made two starts since entering the league as a fourth-round pick of the Patriots in 2019. There's just not much to go on.
The Broncos won't be able to recruit top prospects Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, a vision that seemed possible when Denver began the season losing five of six games. The draft could contain further options. Maybe Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels of LSU could be within reach. Or Michigan's JJ McCarthy. All were first-round picks in The Athletic's most recent mock draft by prospect guru Dane Brugler.
But none of this will be as easy for the Broncos as changing quarterbacks. If the ill-fated Wilson trade should have taught the Broncos anything, it's mostly this.
(Top photo: RJ Sangosti / Getty Images)
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