Things looked so promising for my favorites early on Sunday. At one point I had won six games, which made me think I was in for a good week.
Then I got coal in my stocking.
Some of the games went wrong and things got bad from there. I ended up 6-10 against the spread and 10-6 straight up, neither of which is too impressive. That puts my ATS record at 116-113-11 and my straight-up record at 146-94.
I still have two weeks until the offseason to fix all my problems. Like the teams, I need to sharpen up before the postseason begins.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
The Browns are making good progress right now and thanks to Joe Flacco they are close to making the playoffs. The Jets are making the most of their chances, even though they beat the Commanders last week after blowing a big lead. The Browns defense is going to cause all sorts of problems for whoever plays quarterback for the Jets. The Browns are still on the rise, but the Jets will stay close.
Choose: Browns 22, Jets 21 (Result: Browns 37, Jets 20)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)
The Cowboys have lost two straight but are in the playoffs. The Lions won the division last week but are playing for seeding. Detroit is playing back-to-back road games while Dallas is at home for the first time in three weeks. Expect the Cowboys to get back on track after two losses with impressive play on both offense and defense.
Choose: Cowboys 31, Lions 23
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is the game of the week and could decide the top seed in the AFC and the MVP between Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson. The Ravens have knocked out a lot of good teams, but that won't be the case here. Miami will hang in there in this game, but I think in the end the Ravens defense will make the difference with a late stop.
Choose: Ravens 28, Dolphins 27
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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Patriots will play back-to-back road games after beating the Broncos on Sunday night. The Bills are coming off a win against a bad Chargers team last week, so they can refocus. Their playoff push continues as they defeat the Patriots with a strong showing and prepare for Miami next week.
Choose: Bills 30, Patriots 14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bears have come alive in recent weeks and shown that they are a team to watch next season. The Falcons are still alive in the playoff chase. However, it will be a difficult task against a team that plays loosely. Look for Justin Fields to outwork Taylor Heinicke to win.
Choose: Bears 25, Falcons 19
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Titans could have Will Levis back for this game, while the Texans will also have CJ Stroud back. This would be the first time the two rookie quarterbacks would face each other. The Texans beat the Titans two weeks ago with Case Keenum at quarterback. It was tight. That will be the case no matter who plays quarterback for the Titans.
Choose: Texans 27, Titans 26
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Raiders are on the road for the second week in a row and have slight playoff chances in the game. The Colts need this for their playoff hopes. The Raiders defense is playing at a high level, as we saw against the Chiefs on Monday. I think it will stay that way here against Gardner Minshew if they pull off the surprise.
Choose: Raiders 23, Colts 15
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jaguars have lost four straight games and looked terrible doing it. But Carolina is not a good team, even though Bryce Young was better last week. Trevor Lawrence's health is crucial here. But even if he doesn't play, the Jaguars will win this game and stay atop the AFC South standings.
Choose: Jaguars 24, Panthers 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Rams are headed to the playoffs with Matt Stafford playing at a high level again. The Giants have offensive issues, but the defense will keep them in this game. The blitz will slow Stafford down a bit, but the Rams will still find a way to win the game.
Choose: Rams 23, Giants 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Eagles haven't looked good all season, but the Cardinals are playing back-to-back road games and had trouble stopping Chicago's offense last week. Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon came from the Eagles, where he was defensive coordinator, so he knows them well. But I don't think it matters. The Eagles will take it, but Arizona will also get its points.
Choose: Eagles 33, Cardinals 27
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Bucs have won four straight behind Baker Mayfield, but have struggled at home against the Saints in their recent history, losing four of five games at their stadium. The Saints will be rested after last Thursday's game, but they didn't play well in the loss to the Rams. I don't think they change it here. Bucs keep rolling.
Choose: Bucs 27, Saints 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The 49ers suffered a significant loss to the Ravens on Monday night, leaving them on a long road trip in a short week. It won't matter. The 49ers will refocus as their defensive line comes up against a poor Commanders offensive line.
Choose: 49ers 34, Commanders 17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is kind of a playoff game for these two. The Seahawks pulled off a nice comeback win over the Titans, while the Steelers defeated the Bengals in Mason Rudolph's first start. Things will be much more difficult for Rudolph away from home, but the Steelers will persevere. Ultimately, I think Geno Smith will make enough plays to win the game for Seattle late, like he did last week.
Choose: Seahawks 29, Steelers 27
Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chargers showed some life with interim coach Giff Smith in their narrow loss to the Bills last week. The Broncos lost a game against New England that they had to win. They are still alive but need to win the last two to have a chance. You will get this, but it won't be easy.
Choose: Broncos 23, Chargers 20
Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chiefs have problems on offense that they need to fix in the next two weeks before the playoffs. The Bengals are still alive, but barely. Cincinnati's defense struggled at times with Mason Rudolph last week, so perhaps this is a game to get Patrick Mahomes going. I think the Chiefs win, but the Bengals hang on.
Choose: Chiefs 26, Bengals 23
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
Both teams need this to stay in the playoff race. The Packers are playing back-to-back road games, which is a challenge. But I think Jordan Love and the Packers' passing game can find success here against a Minnesota defense that has struggled as of late. And Nick Mullens is shaky at best.
Choose: Packers 30, Vikings 25