The Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys will face off in Week 17, and with both teams already clinching a spot in the postseason, this game could have a big impact on NFC playoff seeding. The Lions (11-4) opened the week as underdogs to the Cowboys (10-6) and you can check out the updated odds as well as player advantage odds for this game, courtesy of the folks at DraftKings Sportsbook.
At home, Dallas has been a huge success this season. They are 7-0 – the only undefeated team in the league at home – average 39.9 points per game, have never scored fewer than 30 points, have a +171 point advantage over their opponents and are leading in turnovers +10. They were simply dominant.
But the Lions played the role of spoilsport in the last 25 games. They were 5-0 in primetime games over the last two seasons. They went to Lambeau Field and beat the Packers, keeping them out of the playoffs in Aaron Rodgers' swansong game. They went to Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs on Banner Night in what was supposed to be their last Super Bowl. They defeated the Packers for a second time in Lambeau on Thursday night in Week 4, while also handily defeating the Raiders and Broncos at home.
If the Lions want to remain undefeated in prime time and stay in the hunt for the No. 1 or 2 seed in the NFC, they must follow the keys to victory laid out in this week's Honolulu Blueprint.
Cowboys basic plans
Mike McCarthy's Texas Coast Offense:
While Brian Schottenheimer is the technical offensive coordinator, it is head coach Mike McCarthy who designed the offense and calls the plays. At its core, McCarthy's “Texas Coast” is a variation of a West Coast offense that relies on play-actions, pre-snap movements, screens, quick outlet passes and YAC (yards-after-catch) from its skilled players running deep target shots, ball protection and efficiency.
The raw stats show that the Cowboys pass the ball on about 58% of offensive plays, which is about league average, but their rushing numbers are a bit inflated as they have been featured in some blowouts and rely more on the run in those games concentrate on letting the clock run out. In reality, they pass the ball at a top-10 average and use their short passing game and YAC to complement the running game.
Dan Quinn's 4-2-5 defense:
Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who is in his third season in that role with the Cowboys, has developed a system that uses their hybrid players to compete against their opponents.
While hybrid edge rusher Micah Parsons is arguably the best and most versatile defensive player in the game right now, he is joined by numerous other players capable of transitioning between or operating in non-traditional roles, including edge Rushers who can step inside and several defensive backs who are capable of playing at linebacker level.
Quinn emphasizes pass rush and pass defense, often relying on lighter athletes at certain positions to increase athleticism on the field. This can lead to the ability to generate pressure while simultaneously taking cover with the base unit on the field. Additionally, the increased athleticism allows them to blitz more (approximately 30.7% of defensive snaps, ninth in the NFL) and utilize stunts along the defensive line to force the offense to adjust and adapt in the trenches.
But there's a downside to the Cowboys' approach, and that leads us to our first key to victory.
Key 1: Attack with gap power all day long
Not only does Dallas currently live in nickel and dime packages in the secondary, but its linebacker unit also relies on just one traditional role player: Damone Clark. Taking the other spot is Markquese Bell, a 205-pound former safety who is good in pass coverage but can be overwhelmed against the run. This often results in the Cowboys having six or seven players on defense who are essentially defensive backs.
So if you have a defensive line that likes to slow down and a lighter box behind it – both in terms of the number of players and the size of the players – it can lead to poor gap discipline against the run.
That makes them particularly vulnerable to teams that rely on a gap-power rushing attack and like to bully their opponents in the trenches, like the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions.
If you've watched the Cowboys' last two games, you'll see two very different opponents' approaches to offense.
Miami focused on its passing attack and made many runs outside the zone. With the Cowboys athletes on defense, they were able to make runs to the sideline and keep the Dolphins' very good running game under 100 yards rushing. When the Dolphins actually ran a gap program, they had success, but it was rare because Miami did what they did most weeks and tried to surpass Dallas as an athlete.
The week before, Buffalo had early success with a gap power rushing attack and leaned heavily on it. They quickly learned their ability to control the trenches and harassed the Dallas front, rushing the ball 49 times for 266 yards in a 31-10 victory. Running back James Cook led the way with 25 carries for 179 yards and a touchdown on the ground and two receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown through the air. Additionally, Buffalo held the ball for 35 minutes in this game and kept the Cowboys' impressive offense on the sidelines.
Detroit will be firing up their starting offense and rushing attack in this game, and they are one of the best teams at executing a gap-power blocking scheme. Look for the offensive line to try and slow down the Cowboys offensive front by attempting to bully in the trenches.
Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs – who is very similar in style to the Bills' Cook – has been on a roll lately. Last week against the Vikings (No. 9 rushing defense in DVOA), Gibbs rushed for 80 yards and scored two scores while adding another 20 yards passing. The week before, he had 100 yards and a touchdown as well as eight receiving yards and a score against the Broncos. Then, the week before, against the Bears (DVOA: No. 3 run defense), Gibbs recorded 66 yards and a touchdown along with 16 receiving yards.
Meanwhile, Gibbs' vice president David Montgomery had 69 all-purpose yards and a touchdown against the Vikings, 85 rushing yards against the Broncos and 75 all-purpose yards against the Bears.
The Lions' offensive strategy this season has also resulted in them winning time in possession battles. Through 15 games, they hold the ball for nearly 32 minutes per game – the second most in the NFL – have an average of 32 minutes and 30 seconds of possession in their away games and are coming off a game in which they had offensive possession for 38 minutes and 22 seconds.
Look for the Lions to put their offensive line and running backs to work early and often in this game.
Key 2: Attack the safeties in the deep middle of the field
While the Cowboys' pass defense has been their strength, Jeremy Reisman was able to pick holes in some of their recent plays in his on-paper preview of this matchup, concluding:
“It's this simple: Against some of the best defenses, the Lions' passing offense has still found success. But against the best passing offenses, the Cowboys defense struggled.”
One of the areas of the field where the Cowboys have been most vulnerable is over the middle and deep over the middle, where they rank in the bottom third of the NFL according to DVOA coverage rankings. The Cowboys like to deploy their safeties at varying depths in the middle of the field, but this approach is more about muddying the waters than using them to cover.
The Cowboys have leaned on former Lion Jayron Kearse in the deep third of the field lately, but his PFF coverage score is just 39.4 this season. His safety partner Donovan Wilson's coverage rating from PFF isn't much better (56.5), but he also allows quarterbacks to post a QB rating of 136.4 when targeting him in coverage – the eighth-worst in the NFL among safeties and third-worst among safeties who played at least 50% of defensive snaps, per PFF. Wilson also leads the Cowboys with six missed tackles.
That plays right into Lions quarterback Jared Goff’s hands. Goff is at his best when throwing over the middle:
- Short-Medium: 129 completions on 163 attempts, 110.4 passer rating, 88.6 PFF grade
- Mid-Medium: 52 of 68, 139.1 passer rating, 96.0 PFF grade
- Low-Medium: 6 of 12, 84 passer rating, 85.5 PFF grade
In fact, Goff achieves his highest pass rate when targeting the middle of the field, which shouldn't be a surprise considering that's also where his favorite passing targets – Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta – find the most success.
If Goff does indeed have a weakness when it comes to targeting this area of the field, it's his 20:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season – although it's worth noting that five of those eight interceptions have come against an opponent (the Bears). and otherwise it was relatively solid.
But that leads us to the Lions' next key.
Key 3: Win the turnover battle
Outside of the two games against the Bears, Goff hasn't thrown an interception since the Lions' bye. Now Goff has fumbled the ball four times in that same period, but three of them came in one game against the Packers and the other time against the Bears.
The point here is that Goff's turnovers tend to occur in clusters. He has had nine turnovers in three games since the bye – which was certainly an issue he has worked to correct – but he has also recorded four clean sheets, including the last two.
While winning the turnover battle could be the key to winning any week, I'm including it in this week's breakdown because it has had a particularly positive impact on these two teams.
In the last three games in which Goff committed multiple turnovers, the Lions lost two of them. Meanwhile, in the Cowboys' last three games, the offense turned the ball over three times (one each), but failed to produce a turnover in the last two games themselves, and both ended in losses. In fact, their defense has forced a turnover in all but four games this season, and as you can imagine, they have lost all four of those games. In their fifth loss of the season, they managed to lose a ball, but their offense let them down with four ball throws.
Ball security will be huge in this game.
Key 4: Focus on CeeDee Lamb
If the Cowboys have a clear advantage in this game, it's in their passing attack, with quarterback Dak Prescott leading the NFL with 30 passing touchdowns and his favorite target, CeeDee Lamb, leading the NFL in receptions with 109. Lamb is also second in receiving yards with 1,424 and has nine touchdowns this season, which ranks fourth in the league.
The Lions' biggest weakness right now is their pass defense, where they rank near the bottom of the league in most categories. Since they don't match up very well, they have to default to heavier zone coverage as well as some bracket coverage compared to Lamb. Yes, that coverage didn't limit Justin Jefferson last week, but he also had to make several difficult, contested receptions, which is probably the best-case scenario against Lamb.
According to PFF, Lamb has faced 24 contested catching situations this season and has only completed 10 receptions in those situations.
Not only do they have to try to block the Prescott-to-Lamb connection with a layered coverage plan, but they also have to force the issue with pressure up front.
Key 5: Aidan Hutchinson vs. Terence Steele
This is the most advantageous matchup for the Lions defense.
Currently, Aidan Hutchinson is second in the NFL in pressures with 87 per PFF, and he will be matched up against Cowboys right tackle Terence Steele in most cases. This season, Steele has allowed 49 pressures – third-most among all offensive tackles in the NFL – and will have difficulty handling Hutchinson alone.
If the Cowboys shift their focus to Hutchinson and supporting Steele, they will be vulnerable to the backside blitz that Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has unleashed of late. Glenn's creativity in the blitz has helped boost the Lions' pass rush, leading to six sacks in the last two weeks.
While the Cowboys have allowed just 37 sacks this season – the 17th-most in the NFL – they have struggled recently, allowing 14 sacks in the last four weeks alone, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL over that span.
Pressure up front and a muddy secondary behind them, and the Lions can slow down the Cowboys' impressive offense. They will give up points in this game, but if the Lions can be successful on offense, they can play spoilsport again in this game.
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