In front of the cameras, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains his tough rhetoric and says Israel will see its war against Hamas in Gaza to the end. But behind the scenes, his government continues to discreetly seek the release of more hostages in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. What seemed like a red line for Israel just two weeks ago – the partial withdrawal of its troops – is now being discussed in negotiations with the Islamist group. This possibility is being addressed in a new ceasefire offer backed by Washington. Under the agreement, Israeli soldiers would leave the most densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip, allowing the influx of large-scale humanitarian aid. Hamas has rejected the proposal and said it would only consider a final ceasefire.
The offer consists of two clearly defined phases. The first phase consists of a lull in fighting during which Palestinian prisoners are exchanged for Israeli hostages. In this initial phase, Israel would withdraw from the most densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip to allow humanitarian aid and medical supplies – coming from Egypt through the Rafah crossing – to reach the entire Palestinian enclave. Since aid deliveries to Gaza began, the United Nations and its humanitarian satellite agencies in Gaza have repeatedly complained that the omnipresence of the Israeli military is a major obstacle to distribution. In this first phase, the exchange would only affect the most vulnerable hostages and prisoners, Israel's Channel 13 News reported on Wednesday.
The plan would also include a second phase that would include the exchange of women, soldiers and bodies. If the deal goes through, Israel would agree to redeploy its defense forces to other areas of the territory. The United States, which supports the offer, is urging Israel to move into a third phase of the war. During this phase, Israel would cease its large-scale attacks on land, sea and air, opting instead for more surgical special forces operations that would minimize or stop the rising Palestinian death toll. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, which is controlled by Hamas, 21,320 people have been killed in Gaza, 70% of whom are civilians. And the death toll continues to rise exponentially.
However, Hamas has so far rejected the proposal, as well as the ceasefire plan presented on Sunday by Egypt, one of the mediators between the Islamist group and the Israeli government. Hamas' armed wing spokesman Abu Obeida said the group's goal was to “stop the aggression.” “There are no trades or other proposals that we can accept until the aggression against our people is completely stopped,” he said in an audio broadcast on Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera.
The Egyptian proposal included only a temporary ceasefire and also called on Hamas, Fatah and other Palestinian factions to agree to form a government of experts that would focus on rebuilding Gaza and to agree on a roadmap for holding presidential and parliamentary elections in both areas to unify Gaza and the West Bank. The plan was welcomed by Israel, which considered it a good starting point and appreciated the fact that Qatar was no longer the only mediator making proposals. Despite opposition from Hamas and Islamic Jihad (which also holds Israeli hostages), Egypt said it was still waiting for a response from both parties and that its goal was to “converge their positions” to end the war and restore it stability in the region.
In the zero-sum game of the Gaza war, Israel has taken steps to reach a new agreement while Hamas has become increasingly reluctant. It calls for a final ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of the Israeli military from Gaza as conditions for starting talks. Netanyahu has publicly claimed that military pressure is the only way to release the hostages. But in reality, the Israeli prime minister is under great pressure from the “Bring Them Home Now” movement founded by the families of the hostages. This group is calling for an immediate agreement, especially since the Israeli army accidentally killed three hostages and recovered the bodies of five others. On Thursday, after meeting with members, Netanyahu said: “We are now in contact. We cannot describe the situation in more detail. We're working on getting her home. That is our goal.” Hamas leaders are aware of the increasing pressure and are using it as leverage.
Netanyahu's tough public discourse against Hamas is heavily influenced by broad social support for the military campaign. According to a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute released on December 19, 81% of Israelis of Jewish descent believe that their country should not take the suffering of the Palestinian population in Gaza into account when planning its military operations. Among the Arab Israeli population – which makes up about 20% of the total population – the opinion is the opposite: 83% believe the government should consider ways to minimize harm to civilians in the Gaza Strip. In these circumstances, it is no surprise that the Prime Minister is publicly insisting on the need to continue the campaign until he achieves his objectives.
Furthermore, the internal cohesion of his governing coalition is at stake. As Yedioth Ahronoth columnist Sima Kadmon wrote last Monday: “Netanyahu wants the hostages released, but not at any price.” Not at the price of stopping the war, which would lead to events that the prime minister do not want: [Benny] Gantz and [Gadi] Iron droppings [both war cabinet ministers for the right-wing National Unity Party and former military officials] would leave the government, and the Prime Minister would suffer enormous criticism from the far right, which could also trigger the departure of [Itamar] Ben Gvir [interior minister and ultra leader].” According to a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute, two-thirds of Israelis (69%) want elections to be held as soon as the war is over, a position also held by most right-wing voters.
“Unlawful killings”
Meanwhile, Israeli attacks in Gaza continue. At least 200 people died on Thursday in Rafah – a city on the southern border with Egypt where tens of thousands of people have been sleeping on the streets for weeks – and in towns in central Gaza, according to Gaza's health minister. Violence also reached several West Bank cities on Thursday evening as Israeli soldiers searched for militants from Islamist organizations. The military strikes ended Friday morning with the deaths of two Palestinians: one in Ramallah, the administrative capital of the West Bank, and another on the outskirts of Bethlehem.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk has called on Israel to “end the unlawful killings” of Palestinian citizens and “settler violence” in the West Bank, warning that the human rights situation in the Palestinian territories has deteriorated rapidly since Hamas- Attacks on October 7th. In a statement, the Austrian diplomat said: “The use of military tactics and weapons in law enforcement, the use of unnecessary or disproportionate force and the enforcement of widespread, arbitrary and discriminatory restrictions on movement. The impact on the Palestinians is extremely worrying.”
On the other hand, Israel on Thursday gave its preliminary approval for the creation of a maritime humanitarian corridor between Cyprus and Gaza. However, details still need to be negotiated before the project starts, as the Israeli Foreign Ministry said. Cyprus made the proposal weeks ago to help increase the amount of aid coming to Gaza. Deliveries are currently only made via the Rafah (to Egypt) and Kerem Shalom (to Israel) border crossings.
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